Where is mortgage money going to come from?

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

More mortgage lenders lay off staff as rates rise, applications slow​

Movement Mortgage let go 170 staffers last month, following mass layoffs at competitor Better.com​

Rising mortgage rates are putting pressure on lenders as applications decline.
Movement Mortgage is the latest to face struggles, laying off around 170 employees, HousingWire reported this week. Employees in the processing, underwriting and closing departments were most affected by the cuts, according to the report.
Co-founded in 2008 by former NFL player Casey Crawford, the company’s CEO, Movement Mortgage has more than 775 locations across the U.S. and employs upwards of 4,500 people, according to HousingWire. It has not commented on the layoff report.
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The South Carolina-based firm is far from the only mortgage lender making cuts as mortgage rates climb to their highest level since the start of the pandemic. Interactive Mortgage and Freedom Mortgage also recently reduced staff, according to HousingWire.
Better.com, which laid off thousands of employees last month, has resorted to floating voluntary separation plans, to workers starting this week. Employees who accept could be entitled to as much as 60 days of severance and health insurance.

The cooling mortgage market is the likely culprit. Mortgage rates are surging, approaching levels not seen in years. Last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the fourth consecutive week, hitting 4.90 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
As a result, demand for mortgage originations is declining. Applications last week dropped 6.3 percent from the previous week, reaching its lowest volume since the spring of 2019.

Movement Mortgage originated $33.1 billion in 2021, a jump of 10.7 percent over 2020, but activity appeared to plateau towards the end of the year, with originations falling 0.7 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Income needed to afford a typical mortgage payment up 34% annually​


Homebuyers nationwide needed to earn $76,414 annually to afford a typical monthly mortgage payment today — up $19,478 from just one year earlier, according to a new report from Redfin.

That’s a stark jump of 34.2% year over year, as low supply, torrid demand and, as of recently, rapidly increasing mortgage rates have pushed home sale prices up and affordability down. Per Redfin’s data, the typical monthly mortgage payment in March reached $1,910, up from $1,423 in March 2021 and $1,280 in March 2020.

Meanwhile, over the last year, average hourly wages rose just 5.6%, contributing to the affordability crunch.

“Housing is significantly less affordable than it was a year ago because the surge in housing costs has far outpaced the increase in wages, meaning many Americans are now priced out of homeownership,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr.

In all 50 of the largest metro areas tracked by Redfin, the income necessary to afford a home increased by more than 15% year over year, though the actual gain varied widely from city to city. For example in Pittsburgh, which saw the smallest gain among evaluated metros, homebuyers needed an income of $39,532 to afford the area’s median monthly mortgage payment ($988). That income threshold was up 16.3% from one year prior

Other cities with threshold increases nearest to the low end of the spectrum included Philadelphia (17.1%), Chicago (18.2%), Milwaukee (20.4%), and Detroit (21.3%).

The largest jump in income threshold was seen in Tampa, which saw a whopping climb of 47.8% (up to an income of $67,353, an increase of $21,791) year over year. The typical monthly mortgage payment in the city rose to $1,684 from the same time in 2021. Other cities with large jumps included Phoenix (45.7%) and Las Vegas (45.6%); metros with increases of 40% of more included Orlando, Jacksonville, Nashville and Austin
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Sets Post Pandemic Highs in First Quarter of 2022​

Foreclosure Starts, Bank Repossessions at Highest Numbers in Two Years, But Still Well Below Normal Levels
ATTOM, licensor of the nation’s most comprehensive foreclosure data and parent company to RealtyTrac (www.realtytrac.com), the largest online marketplace for foreclosure and distressed properties, today released its Q1 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 78,271 U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing during the first quarter of 2022, up 39 percent from the previous quarter and up 132 percent from a year ago.
The report also shows a total of 33,333 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in March 2022, up 29 percent from the previous month and up 181 percent from a year ago — the 11th consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in U.S. foreclosure activity.
“Foreclosure activity has continued to gradually return to normal levels since the expiration of the government’s moratorium, and the CFPB’s enhanced mortgage servicing guidelines,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for ATTOM. “But even with the large year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts and bank repossessions, foreclosure activity is still only running at about 57% of where it was in Q1 2020, the last quarter before the government enacted consumer protection programs due to the pandemic.”

Foreclosure starts increase in all 50 states
A total of 50,759 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in Q1 2022, up 67 percent from the previous quarter and up 188 percent from a year ago.
States that had the greatest number of foreclosures starts in Q1 2022 included, California (5,378 foreclosure starts), Florida (4.707 foreclosure starts), Texas (4,649 foreclosure starts), Illinois (3,534 foreclosure starts), and Ohio (3,136 foreclosure starts).

Those major metros that had the greatest number of foreclosures starts in Q1 2022 included, Chicago, Illinois (3,101 foreclosure starts), New York, New York (2,580 foreclosure starts), Los Angeles, California (1,554 foreclosure starts), Houston, Texas (1,431 foreclosure starts), and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1,375 foreclosure starts).
Highest foreclosure rates in Illinois, New Jersey and Ohio
Nationwide one in every 1,795 housing units had a foreclosure filing in Q1 2022. States with the highest foreclosure rates were Illinois (one in every 791 housing units with a foreclosure filing); New Jersey (one in every 792 housing units); Ohio (one in every 991 housing units); South Carolina (one in every 1,081 housing units); and Nevada (one in every 1,090 housing units).
Among 223 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in Q1 2022 were Cleveland, Ohio (one in every 535 housing units); Atlantic City, New Jersey (one in 600); Jacksonville, North Carolina (one in 633); Rockford, Illinois (one in 634); and Columbia, South Carolina (one in 672).

Other major metros with a population of at least 1 million and foreclosure rates in the top 20 highest nationwide, included Cleveland, Ohio at No.1, Chicago, Illinois at No. 6, Detroit, Michigan at No. 10, Las Vegas, Nevada at No. 13, and Jacksonville, Florida at No. 16.
Bank repossessions increase 41 percent from last quarter
Lenders repossessed 11,824 U.S. properties through foreclosure (REO) in Q1 2022, up 41 percent from the previous quarter and up 160 percent from a year ago.

Those states that had the greatest number of REOs in Q1 2022 were Michigan (1,592 REOs); Illinois (1,288 REOs); Florida (673 REOs); California (655 REOs); and Pennsylvania (639 REOs).
Average time to foreclose decreases 3 percent from previous quarter
Properties foreclosed in Q1 2022 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 917 days, down slightly from 941 days in the previous quarter and down 1 percent from 930 days in Q1 2021.

States with the longest average foreclosure timelines for homes foreclosed in Q1 2022 were Hawaii (2,578 days); Louisiana (1,976 days); Kentucky (1,891 days); Nevada (1,808 days); and Connecticut (1,632 days).
States with the shortest average foreclosure timelines for homes foreclosed in Q1 2022 were Montana (133 days); Mississippi (146 days); West Virginia (197 days); Wyoming (226 days); and Minnesota (228 days).
March 2022 Foreclosure Activity High-Level Takeaways
“March foreclosure activity was at its highest level in exactly two years – since March 2020, when there were almost 47,000 foreclosure filings across the country,” Sharga added. “It’s likely that we’ll continue to see significant month-over-month and year-over-year growth through the second quarter of 2022, but still won’t reach historically normal levels of foreclosures until the end of the year at the earliest, unless the U.S. economy takes a significant turn for the worse.”
  • Nationwide in March 2022, one in every 4,215 properties had a foreclosure filing.
  • States with the highest foreclosure rates in March 2022 were Illinois (one in every 1,825 housing units with a foreclosure filing); New Jersey (one in every 2,022 housing units); South Carolina (one in every 2,299 housing units); Delaware (one in every 2,579 housing units); and Ohio (one in every 2,604 housing units).
  • 22,360 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in March 2022, up 35 percent from the previous month and up 248 percent from March 2021.
  • Lenders completed the foreclosure process on 4,406 U.S. properties in March 2022, up 67 percent from the previous month and up 180 percent from March 2021.
U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – Q1 2022
Rate RankState NameTotal Properties with Filings1/every X HU (Foreclosure Rate)%∆ Q4 2021%∆ Q1 2021
U.S.78,2711,79539.34132.27
18Alabama1,1432,00268.8378.87
44Alaska526,106-17.46-32.47
15Arizona1,6561,861165.38134.23
34Arkansas4413,09631.25143.65
12California8,2431,74631.80119.64
32Colorado8303,002162.66385.38
14Connecticut8241,85726.38120.32
6Delaware3861,16329.9751.97
District of Columbia477,4550.00147.37
8Florida8,1471,2110.8592.87
10Georgia2,5921,70255.58123.64
30Hawaii1942,892-0.5184.76
43Idaho1256,01516.82111.86
1Illinois6,86179117.99178.45
7Indiana2,4151,21058.05100.58
16Iowa7281,94134.3278.00
40Kansas2704,72574.19147.71
41Kentucky4174,78318.137.75
22Louisiana9072,28652.1818.72
17Maine3731,98123.1081.07
11Maryland1,4831,70721.16132.45
35Massachusetts9663,10414.5968.29
9Michigan3,2051,426190.57490.24
37Minnesota7733,21572.93170.28
33Mississippi4333,04886.6473.20
24Missouri1,1512,42168.0375.73
45Montana776,68671.1197.44
36Nebraska2673,162190.22178.13
5Nevada1,1751,09022.91487.50
38New Hampshire1933,31047.3396.94
2New Jersey4,75279269.29311.79
25New Mexico3762,50215.6944.06
26New York3,2152,64025.54261.64
20North Carolina2,2652,07938.03102.59
47North Dakota3510,590-65.00-12.50
3Ohio5,28999146.31154.16
13Oklahoma9561,82749.84111.50
46Oregon2397,589143.8895.90
21Pennsylvania2,7022,12561.70102.09
39Rhode Island1413,429-20.79147.37
4South Carolina2,1701,08176.42158.95
50South Dakota2217,72410.00-8.33
28Tennessee1,0842,79749.52125.36
23Texas4,9822,32636.61130.33
19Utah5582,06367.5771.17
49Vermont2413,9309.09200.00
29Virginia1,2872,81145.75118.88
42Washington6454,96538.71109.42
48West Virginia7910,831125.71119.44
27Wisconsin9832,77530.5442.26
31Wyoming932,92443.0814.81
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
The Fed's $2.7 trillion mortgage problem
If you took out a mortgage over the last couple of years, there's a good chance the holder of that loan is America's central bank — a consequence of its monetary stimulus efforts throughout the pandemic.
Why it matters: The Fed will face a series of political and economic headaches as it attempts to move away from subsidizing home lending by shrinking its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.
  • The problem: Extracting itself from this market risks crashing the housing industry and creating intense political blowback for incurring financial losses.
By the numbers: Back in February 2020, the Fed owned $1.4 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and the number was falling rapidly. But when the pandemic took hold, the central bank began a new round of bond purchases (known as "quantitative easing"), swelling that number to $2.7 trillion.
  • The policy contributed to ultra-low mortgage rates that stimulated home buying and refinancing activity until recently.
State of play: Now, as the Fed seeks to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, it wants to shrink that portfolio. It may turn out to be easier said than done.
  • The Fed says that by September it will reduce the mortgage portfolio by up to $35 billion per month. Emphasis on "up to."
In fact, the numbers will probably undershoot that.
  • The reason: For now, the Fed is just looking to let its holdings shrink as securities get paid off. But with mortgage rates way up in recent months, people have little incentive to sell their home or refinance a mortgage — so these mortgages are likely stay on the Fed's books longer.
That will leave the Fed with unappealing options. It could simply accept that it will continue to have an outsized role in the housing market and a bigger balance sheet than it might prefer.
  • Or it could begin selling the securities on the open market — a possibility that the minutes of its March policy meeting said could happen down the road.
What they're saying: "Let's get the program we've got underway and up to speed, but then once we've got it underway, I think it'll be worth taking a look at what is happening to the mortgage-backed [securities] on our balance sheet," Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, tells Axios.
  • "I'm certainly open to a targeted and disciplined way to sell into the market if we're not headed toward the primarily Treasury balance sheet that we've said we want," he said.
Yes, but: That will create its own problems. If the Fed sells mortgage securities that pay low rates at a time when prevailing rates are much higher, it will incur big financial losses that reduce the funds the central bank returns to the Treasury.
  • In that scenario, expect officials to face tough questions from Capitol Hill to explain why they've lost billions of dollars on behalf of the American people.
  • Plus, the selling would likely push mortgage rates up further, at a time the housing industry is already starting to groan under the pressure of rising rates. Homebuilders, real estate agents, and other influential industry groups will make their unhappiness known to elected officials.
The bottom line: The Fed's pandemic actions fueled a housing boom. As it tries to withdraw that support, it could be bad news for housing — and the Fed's standing on Capitol Hill.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Fed to begin quantitative tightening: What that means for financial markets​

The Federal Reserve’s almost $9 trillion asset portfolio is set to be reduced starting on Wednesday, in a process intended to supplement rate hikes and buttress the central bank’s fight against inflation.
While the precise impact of “quantitative tightening” in financial markets is still up for debate, analysts at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute and Capital Economics agree that it’s likely to produce another headwind for stocks. And that’s a dilemma for investors facing multiple risks to their portfolios at the moment, as government bonds sold off and stocks nursed losses on Tuesday.

In a nutshell, “quantitative tightening” is the opposite of “quantitative easing”: It’s basically a way to reduce the money supply floating around in the economy and, some say, helps to augment rate hikes in a predictable manner — though, by how much remains unclear. And it may turn out to be anything but as dull as “watching paint dry,” as Janet Yellen described it when she was Fed chair in 2017 — the last time when the central bank initiated a similar process.

QT’s main impact is in the financial markets: It’s seen as likely to drive up real or inflation-adjusted yields, which in turn makes stocks somewhat less attractive. And it should put upward pressure on Treasury term premia, or the compensation investors need for bearing interest-rate risks over the life of a bond.

What’s more, quantitative tightening comes at a time when investors are already in a pretty foul mood: Optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market is below 20% for the fourth time in seven weeks, according to the results of a sentiment survey released Thursday by the American Association of Individual Investors. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden met with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday afternoon to address inflation, the topic at the forefront of many investors’ minds.

“I don’t think we know the impacts of QT just yet, especially since we haven’t done this slimming down of the balance sheet much in history,” said Dan Eye, chief investment officer of Pittsburgh-based Fort Pitt Capital Group. ”But it’s a safe bet to say that it pulls liquidity out of the market, and it’s reasonable to think that as liquidity is pulled out, it affects multiples in valuations to some degree.”

Starting on Wednesday, the Fed will begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities by a combined $47.5 billion per month for the first three months. After this, the total amount to be reduced goes up to $95 billion a month, with policy makers prepared to adjust their approach as the economy and financial markets evolve.

The reduction will occur as maturing securities roll off the Fed’s portfolio and proceeds are no longer reinvested. As of September, the rolloffs will be occurring at “a substantially faster and more aggressive” pace than the process which started in 2017, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

By the institute’s calculations, the Fed’s balance sheet could shrink by almost $1.5 trillion by the end of 2023, taking it down to around $7.5 trillion. And if QT continues as expected, “this $1.5 trillion reduction in the balance sheet could be equivalent to another 75 – 100 basis points of tightening,” at a time when the fed-funds rate is expected to be around 3.25% to 3.5%, the institute said in a note this month.

The target range of the fed-funds rate is currently between 0.75% and 1%.

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Sources: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Data as of April 29.
“Quantitative tightening may add to upward pressure on real yields,” the institute said. “Along with other forms of tightening in financial conditions, this represents a further headwind for risk assets.”

Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said that “we expect the Fed to reduce its asset holdings by more than $3 trillion over the next couple of years, enough to bring the balance sheet back in line with its prepandemic level as a share of GDP.” Though that shouldn’t have a major impact on the economy, the Fed might stop QT prematurely if economic conditions “sour,” he said.

“The main impact will come indirectly via the effects on financial conditions, with QT putting upward pressure on Treasury term premiums which, alongside a further slowdown in economic growth, will add to the headwinds facing the stock market,” Hunter said in a note. The key uncertainty is how long the Fed’s rundown will last, he said.

On Tuesday, all three major U.S. stock indexes finished lower, with Dow industrials DJIA sliding 0.7%, the S&P 500 SPX down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP off by 0.4%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields TY00 were higher as bonds sold off across the board.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
https://www.attomdata.com/news/mark...acant-property-and-zombie-foreclosure-report/

Vacant Zombie Properties Rising in Second Quarter Amid Jump in Foreclosure Activity​

ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its second-quarter 2022 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report showing that 1.3 million (1,304,007) residential properties in the United States sit vacant. That represents 1.3 percent, or one in 76 homes, across the nation.
The report analyzes publicly recorded real estate data collected by ATTOM — including foreclosure status, equity and owner-occupancy status — matched against monthly updated vacancy data. (See full methodology below). Vacancy data is available for U.S. residential properties at https://www.attomdata.com/solutions/marketing-lists/.
The report also reveals that 259,166 residential properties in the U.S. are in the process of foreclosure in the second quarter of this year, up 12.7 percent from the first quarter of 2022 and up 15.9 percent from the second quarter of 2021. This is also the third straight quarter that the count of pre-foreclosure properties has gone up since a nationwide foreclosure moratorium, imposed early during the Coronavirus pandemic, was lifted at the end of July 2021.
Among those pre-foreclosure properties, 7,569 sit vacant in the second quarter of 2022, meaning that the number of zombie-foreclosure properties went up quarterly by 2.8 percent.

“The incidence of zombie-foreclosures tends to be higher in cases where the foreclosure process has dragged on for many months and sometimes even for years,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “We’re now seeing properties where the borrower was already in default prior to the government’s moratorium re-enter the foreclosure process, and undoubtedly some of these homes will have been vacated over the past 26 months.”
The number of zombie-foreclosures does remain down 6.3 percent from a year ago and continues to represent just a tiny segment of the nation’s total stock of 99.7 million residential properties. Just one of every 13,171 homes in the second quarter of 2022 are vacant and in foreclosure, meaning that most neighborhoods have none. The portion of pre-foreclosure properties that have been abandoned into zombie status also continues to decline, down from 3.6 percent a year ago to 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and 2.9 percent in the second quarter of this year.
But the recent increase in zombie properties is the first since the moratorium ended. The portion of all residential properties sitting empty in the foreclosure process has grown 1.9 percent in the second quarter, up from one in 13,424 in the first quarter of this year.
The upward second-quarter foreclosure trends – in both overall and zombie-property counts – add to a list of measures showing how the decade-long U.S. housing market boom remains strong but also faces a possible slowdown this year.
Median single-family home prices have shot up 17 percent over the past year and typical home-seller profits remain historically high, at nearly 50 percent. Homeowner equity continues rising, greatly limiting the likelihood that homeowners facing foreclosure will simply walk away from their homes.
“According to our equity report, almost 90 percent of homeowners in foreclosure have positive equity,” Sharga added. “Having equity gives financially-distressed homeowners an opportunity for a relatively soft landing – selling their home at a profit rather than losing everything to a foreclosure. That factor alone should keep the number of zombie-foreclosures from rising too much.”
The median home value nationwide went up just 3 percent from the third quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year and home-seller profits have ticked down in 2022. At the same time, investment returns for speculators who flip properties have hit their lowest point since 2008. Beyond that, an estimated 1.5 million to 2 million homeowners fell behind on mortgages after the pandemic wiped out millions of jobs prior to the economy recovering last year.
Zombie foreclosures up quarterly but still down annually
A total of 7,569 residential properties facing possible foreclosure have been vacated by their owners nationwide in the second quarter of 2022, up slightly from 7,363 in the first quarter of 2022 but still down from up from 8,078 in the second quarter of 2021.
Amid numbers that remain extremely low, the biggest increases from the first quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2022 in states with at least 50 zombie foreclosures are in Michigan, (zombie properties up 74 percent, from 54 to 94), Arizona (up 56 percent, from 32 to 50), Georgia (up 29 percent, from 62 to 80), Nevada (up 26 percent, from 68 to 86) and Iowa (up 17 percent, from 132 to 155).
The biggest quarterly decreases among states with at least 50 zombie foreclosures are in Massachusetts (zombie properties down 13 percent, from 62 to 54), Missouri (down 13 percent, from 63 to 55), New Jersey (down 7 percent, from 275 to 257), New Mexico (down 3 percent, from 78 to 76) and New York (down 2 percent, from 2,074 to 2,041).
Overall vacancy rates down annually in most of nation
The vacancy rate for all residential properties in the U.S. has dropped to 1.31 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (one in 76 properties). That’s down from 1.37 percent in the first quarter of 2022 (one in 73) and from 1.42 percent in the second quarter of last year (one in 70).
States with the biggest annual drops are Tennessee (down from 2.42 percent of all homes in the second quarter of 2021 to 1.55 percent in the second quarter of this year), Oregon (down from 1.84 percent to 1.01 percent), Maryland (down from 1.67 percent to 1.05 percent), Wisconsin (down from 1.36 percent to 0.76 percent) and Minnesota (down from 1.54 percent to 0.95 percent).
Other high-level findings from the second quarter of 2022:
  • Among metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. with at least 100,000 residential properties and at least 100 properties facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, the highest zombie rates are in Peoria, IL (11.3 percent of properties in the foreclosure process are vacant); Wichita, KS (11.2 percent); Cleveland, OH (9.5 percent); Syracuse, NY (8.9 percent) and South Bend, IN (8.6 percent).
  • Aside from Cleveland, the highest zombie-foreclosure rates in major metro areas with at least 500,000 residential properties and at least 100 homes facing foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022 are in Baltimore, MD (8.3 percent of homes in the foreclosure process are vacant); Portland, OR (6.5 percent); Indianapolis, IN (5.9 percent) and Pittsburgh, PA (5.9 percent).
  • In the 164 metro areas analyzed for this report, those where zombie homes represent the largest shares of all residential properties in the second quarter of 2022 are Cleveland, OH (one in 1,426 homes are empty and facing foreclosure); Peoria, IL (one in 1,565); Albany, NY (one in 1,725); Syracuse, NY (one in 2,195) and Rochester, NY (one in 2,964).
  • Among the 27.9 million investor-owned homes throughout the U.S. in the second quarter of 2022, about 905,000 are vacant, or 3.2 percent. The highest levels of vacant investor-owned homes are in Indiana (6.9 percent), Kansas (5.8 percent), Oklahoma (5.3 percent), Alabama (5.1 percent) and Ohio (5 percent).
  • Among the roughly 3,300 foreclosed, bank-owned homes in the U.S. during the second quarter of 2022, 10.8 percent are vacant. In states with at least 50 bank-owned homes, the largest vacancy rates are in Pennsylvania (19.9 percent vacant), Indiana (17.2 percent), Texas (16.4 percent), Ohio (16 percent) and Illinois (15.9 percent).
  • The highest zombie-foreclosure rates in U.S. counties with at least 500 properties in the foreclosure process during the second quarter of 2022 are in Broome County (Binghamton), NY (11.8 percent of pre-foreclosure homes are empty); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (10.8 percent); Onondaga County (Syracuse), NY (9.4 percent); Pinellas County (Clearwater), FL (9.3 percent); and Oneida County, NY (outside Syracuse) (8.3 percent).
  • The lowest zombie rates among counties with at least 500 properties in foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022 are in Contra Costa County, CA (outside Oakland) (no pre-foreclosure homes are empty); Hudson County, NJ (outside New York, NY) (0.3 percent); Atlantic County (Atlantic City), NJ (0.4 percent); Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), NC (0.5 percent) and Sacramento County, CA (0.6 percent).
  • Among 424 counties with at least 50,000 residential properties, those with the largest portion of total homes in zombie foreclosure status in the second quarter of 2022 are Broome County (Binghamton), NY (one of every 648 properties); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (one in 933); Peoria County, IL (one in 1,144); Suffolk County (eastern Long Island), NY (one in 1,165) and Oneida County, NY (outside Syracuse) (one in 1,437).
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Some are probably get tired of my "Whose going to buy MBS now?" posts, but...
The CPI news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, and the weakest sector broke. In bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS. Then a few posted prices beyond borrower demand, not wanting to buy except at penalty prices. Overnight the retail consequence has been a leap from roughly 5.50% to 6.00% for low-fee 30-fixed loans.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ers-warned-us-of-housing-stock-market-trouble

Mortgage Lenders Warned Us Trouble Was Coming​

Now we have a telltale indicator for when the market has reached a top.

Mortgage Companies Tried to Warn Us
In January 2021, the Covid heist movie “Locked Down” was on HBO Max, the Proud Boys hit “Hang Mike Pence” topped the Billboard charts, and the stock market was so hopped up on free money that Internet randos could make GameStop America’s hottest stock just for the lulz of it.

All were hallmarks and/or harbingers of continuing and/or impending doom. But that month a much quieter shoe dropped that truly foretold the economic dog’s breakfast we’re choking down today: Three mortgage companies sold shares to the public, at what Marc Rubinstein notes was the precise bottom for mortgage rates in the US.

Since then, borrowing costs have more than doubled, and all the free money has gone bye-bye faster than we forgot about the Covid heist movie “Locked Down.” Mortgage lending is the epitome of a cyclical business, Marc notes, and nothing rings the bell at the top of a cycle quite like selling shares to the unsuspecting suckers public.

And the cyclical downswing shows no sign of stopping. Rates are rising because the Fed is trying to squelch inflation. But Lisa Abramowicz points out high mortgage rates are chasing people into the rental market, causing a record-smashing surge in rents, which are a major component of, you guessed it, inflation. Central-bankin’ is hard.

Higher rates and lower demand are a nastier cocktail for real-estate investors than even the worst slurp juice. Those who loaded up with leverage could soon be sharing their pain with the rest of us, in a 2008 financial-crisis reenactment, warns John Authers. But at least now we know the signs to watch whenever we get back to the top of the cycle again.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ers-warned-us-of-housing-stock-market-trouble

Mortgage Lenders Warned Us Trouble Was Coming​

Now we have a telltale indicator for when the market has reached a top.

Mortgage Companies Tried to Warn Us
In January 2021, the Covid heist movie “Locked Down” was on HBO Max, the Proud Boys hit “Hang Mike Pence” topped the Billboard charts, and the stock market was so hopped up on free money that Internet randos could make GameStop America’s hottest stock just for the lulz of it.

All were hallmarks and/or harbingers of continuing and/or impending doom. But that month a much quieter shoe dropped that truly foretold the economic dog’s breakfast we’re choking down today: Three mortgage companies sold shares to the public, at what Marc Rubinstein notes was the precise bottom for mortgage rates in the US.

Since then, borrowing costs have more than doubled, and all the free money has gone bye-bye faster than we forgot about the Covid heist movie “Locked Down.” Mortgage lending is the epitome of a cyclical business, Marc notes, and nothing rings the bell at the top of a cycle quite like selling shares to the unsuspecting suckers public.

And the cyclical downswing shows no sign of stopping. Rates are rising because the Fed is trying to squelch inflation. But Lisa Abramowicz points out high mortgage rates are chasing people into the rental market, causing a record-smashing surge in rents, which are a major component of, you guessed it, inflation. Central-bankin’ is hard.

Higher rates and lower demand are a nastier cocktail for real-estate investors than even the worst slurp juice. Those who loaded up with leverage could soon be sharing their pain with the rest of us, in a 2008 financial-crisis reenactment, warns John Authers. But at least now we know the signs to watch whenever we get back to the top of the cycle again.
this story is just getting started - 3% FFR by year end, we are halfway there
 
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