The inventory at the high end has been move up steadily for the past few months. E.g., at $20K+, the low on StreetEasy early in the year was 95, and now it’s 170. In late 2020, it got as high as 370 IIRC.
I can’t decide whether that’s more inventory building up, or simply a push in asking rent from inventory that would have previously been priced lower. Probably a bit of both. Regardless, it’s a sign that people are no longer clearing out new inventory at that price point with the same gusto as late 2021.
I do think you're underplaying the staggering amount of units being kept vacant on purpose. But also it sounds like by your reasoning if we do have the recession some are predicting the rental market will repeat 2020?
Luxury real estate sales fell nearly 18 percent in a three-month period ending in April after a two-year surge, according to Redfin.
Luxury sales take biggest hit since early pandemic
Sales fell almost 18% in recent three-month period: Redfin
The slumping stock market is also a factor, according to Redfin real estate agent Elena Fleck, as that could impact many buyers in the luxury market.
“The good news for buyers is the market is becoming more balanced and competition is easing up,” Fleck said in the report.
To that end, the rate of price growth in the luxury market is beginning to flatten. For the three months, the median price jumped 19.8 percent year over year to $1.15 million. That’s well above the growth rate pre-pandemic, but below the 27.5 percent rise from last spring.
Additionally, the inventory crunch is easing. The supply of homes dropped 12.4 percent year over year, a significantly smaller decline than the record 24.6 percent drop from last summer. Luxury listings, meanwhile, increased 1.1 percent year over year, the first increase in the market since the three months ending in July.
Among the top 50 metros analyzed, Long Island’s Nassau County saw the biggest drop in luxury home sales, down 45.3 percent. Interestingly, neighboring New York City was the only metro with a rise in luxury sales, up 30 percent. New York also saw the second-biggest gain in listings at 31.1 percent, only trailing Warren, Michigan.
Other metros to see a major decline in luxury home sales include Oakland (35.1 percent), Dallas (33.8 percent), Austin (33 percent) and West Palm Beach (32.8 percent).
The median sales price of luxury homes rose in all 50 markets, led by a 33 percent gain in Tampa, Florida. The smallest price climb was the 5.5 percent increase in St. Louis.
Luxury listings plummeted across California. The five metros to see the largest luxury listing drops were all in the state, led by a 28.4 percent decline in Oakland. Listings also dropped 27.6 percent in Los Angeles and 24.9 percent in San Francisco.
Los Angeles also saw the second-biggest decline in the supply of luxury homes, down 36.1 percent. Miami was right behind Los Angeles with a 33.7 percent decline in supply.