Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
So, record low interest rates, huge government spending/stimulus, and record high deal volume hasn't seemed to move the pricing needle appreciably upward. So what happens if deal volume slows, Fed curtails insane liquidity injections and interest rates rise even a little?
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
hmm, figured those went the way of the dodo bird and were no more.
Usually it's a sign that brokers aren't getting the traffic they wanted and hope if agents actually see the property they might think of a buyer to pitch the property to. The last time I tried to organize one was ?2014? and couldn't get a single broker to join. Here you have 12 agents. To me that's a sign they know they can use all the help they can get the move these properties.
 

inonada

Well-known member
So, record low interest rates, huge government spending/stimulus, and record high deal volume hasn't seemed to move the pricing needle appreciably upward. So what happens if deal volume slows, Fed curtails insane liquidity injections and interest rates rise even a little?
Prices go ⬆️, of course. Slow volume => exclusivity. Fed curtailing => booming economy. Increasing interest rates => people receive more income to spend.

(Sorry, I spent my formative years on SE listening to such “logic”.)
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Prices go ⬆️, of course. Slow volume => exclusivity. Fed curtailing => booming economy. Increasing interest rates => people receive more income to spend.

(Sorry, I spent my formative years on SE listening to such “logic”.)
If the fed does all that --> equities continue higher -- nothing, we keep rolling
If the fed does all that --> equities correct or reset lower -- yes we will see the recovery fade

I think we got a few more months of positive pressure on prices for this cycle and then it may fade - Im thinking deals signed 3-4 months ago still look UP while deals signed last 30-60 days in pipeline, are starting to see exhaustion a bit after the run up from lows
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Awww shit….

My best hope is that Friday, Aug 27th spike rolling off. But so will the subsequent two empty weekend days. I shoulda studied the details of weekly seasonality in the contract: I don’t like how it’s gonna end!
Gonna be a photo finish!
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
I know you guys are just having fun, but whether September ends up just over or just under 1,000 doesn't mean much to me. OTOH the total number of contracts for October could be very meaningful, especially if we split off resales from New Dev.

September is typically a very slow month so it's difficult to say how much of the decreased number from August is "normal seasonality" vs a continued cooling from the peak in late Spring. However if we don't get the usual rebound in October for contract signings that will send a message. I think whether we see a continued shift of market activity towards New Dev and away from resales (like if contracts signed New Dev goes up but resales doesn't) would need some considered analysis.

It think it is possible (NB POSSIBLE) that what we have seen over the last year was in no small part due to both seller and buyer fatigue (i.e. sellers who wanted to sell since 2015 but could get their and buyers who wanted to buyer since 2015 but thought the market was too high) and between COVID cabin fever, fiscal stimulus, ZIRP, etc large groups of both at least partly capitulated.

What I think is still untested (if that is in fact true) is how deep both those pools run. I'm definitely seeing a number of listings which couldn't sell last time they were on the market come on now at the same (or even higher) prices. At the same time I'm seeing a non-insignificant number of listings come on and/or trade back at 2013 prices. I think we are in for some "interesting times."
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
I know you guys are just having fun, but whether September ends up just over or just under 1,000 doesn't mean much to me. OTOH the total number of contracts for October could be very meaningful, especially if we split off resales from New Dev.

September is typically a very slow month so it's difficult to say how much of the decreased number from August is "normal seasonality" vs a continued cooling from the peak in late Spring. However if we don't get the usual rebound in October for contract signings that will send a message. I think whether we see a continued shift of market activity towards New Dev and away from resales (like if contracts signed New Dev goes up but resales doesn't) would need some considered analysis.

It think it is possible (NB POSSIBLE) that what we have seen over the last year was in no small part due to both seller and buyer fatigue (i.e. sellers who wanted to sell since 2015 but could get their and buyers who wanted to buyer since 2015 but thought the market was too high) and between COVID cabin fever, fiscal stimulus, ZIRP, etc large groups of both at least partly capitulated.

What I think is still untested (if that is in fact true) is how deep both those pools run. I'm definitely seeing a number of listings which couldn't sell last time they were on the market come on now at the same (or even higher) prices. At the same time I'm seeing a non-insignificant number of listings come on and/or trade back at 2013 prices. I think we are in for some "interesting times."
Resale and New Dev deal vol, 1 yr, vs historical average - look at the spreads and focus there for trend changes and signals

1632758413135.png

1632758430741.png
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
To give us an idea of how much of this is "normal seasonality" (which of course some of this is) is there a chart of "peak 30 day contracts signed" vs "bottom 30 days contracts signed" by year?
 

inonada

Well-known member
You took a big hit with Aug 27th rolling off. But now you got 2 weekends rolling off and 2 weekdays rolling on. It’s gonna be tough, though. At 916 contracts / 21 weekdays, it’s been averaging 43 contracts per weekday, enough to push you over. But weekends have been part of the picture too, so it’s lower than 43 per day. And the print on Monday was kinda weak, weaker than the rest of the weekdays this past month.

It’s gonna be a photo finish still, with you catching up. Maybe 980-990?
 

inonada

Well-known member
David, the adult in the room, has a fine point: Oct is usually the month that spikes over Sept. From your chart, 600 vs 850 or so I’ve the last 9 years? Since this contract is closing, let’s take our childish game there. What are you thinking for the line on that one?
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
You took a big hit with Aug 27th rolling off. But now you got 2 weekends rolling off and 2 weekdays rolling on. It’s gonna be tough, though. At 916 contracts / 21 weekdays, it’s been averaging 43 contracts per weekday, enough to push you over. But weekends have been part of the picture too, so it’s lower than 43 per day. And the print on Monday was kinda weak, weaker than the rest of the weekdays this past month.

It’s gonna be a photo finish still, with you catching up. Maybe 980-990?
right right. Looking exactly that way..gonna be +/- <20 or so prob
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Um, tomorrow is the day right? since that counts todays production..I mean, could this get closer...yes, all in good fun here

1633049733266.png
 

inonada

Well-known member
You’re right, tomorrow’s the day not today. But what a strong showing on Tue & Wed for you! A middling day is rolling off, so things are looking good for you — you got your miracle! I am getting ready to hang my head in shame…
 
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