hmm, figured those went the way of the dodo bird and were no more.I haven't seen a big Broker's Open House Tour in a while, but today there was one with 12 Park Avenue Coops between $3M and $5.4M.
hmm, figured those went the way of the dodo bird and were no more.I haven't seen a big Broker's Open House Tour in a while, but today there was one with 12 Park Avenue Coops between $3M and $5.4M.
Usually it's a sign that brokers aren't getting the traffic they wanted and hope if agents actually see the property they might think of a buyer to pitch the property to. The last time I tried to organize one was ?2014? and couldn't get a single broker to join. Here you have 12 agents. To me that's a sign they know they can use all the help they can get the move these properties.hmm, figured those went the way of the dodo bird and were no more.
Prices go , of course. Slow volume => exclusivity. Fed curtailing => booming economy. Increasing interest rates => people receive more income to spend.So, record low interest rates, huge government spending/stimulus, and record high deal volume hasn't seemed to move the pricing needle appreciably upward. So what happens if deal volume slows, Fed curtails insane liquidity injections and interest rates rise even a little?
If the fed does all that --> equities continue higher -- nothing, we keep rollingPrices go , of course. Slow volume => exclusivity. Fed curtailing => booming economy. Increasing interest rates => people receive more income to spend.
(Sorry, I spent my formative years on SE listening to such “logic”.)
Gonna be a photo finish!Awww shit….
My best hope is that Friday, Aug 27th spike rolling off. But so will the subsequent two empty weekend days. I shoulda studied the details of weekly seasonality in the contract: I don’t like how it’s gonna end!
Resale and New Dev deal vol, 1 yr, vs historical average - look at the spreads and focus there for trend changes and signalsI know you guys are just having fun, but whether September ends up just over or just under 1,000 doesn't mean much to me. OTOH the total number of contracts for October could be very meaningful, especially if we split off resales from New Dev.
September is typically a very slow month so it's difficult to say how much of the decreased number from August is "normal seasonality" vs a continued cooling from the peak in late Spring. However if we don't get the usual rebound in October for contract signings that will send a message. I think whether we see a continued shift of market activity towards New Dev and away from resales (like if contracts signed New Dev goes up but resales doesn't) would need some considered analysis.
It think it is possible (NB POSSIBLE) that what we have seen over the last year was in no small part due to both seller and buyer fatigue (i.e. sellers who wanted to sell since 2015 but could get their and buyers who wanted to buyer since 2015 but thought the market was too high) and between COVID cabin fever, fiscal stimulus, ZIRP, etc large groups of both at least partly capitulated.
What I think is still untested (if that is in fact true) is how deep both those pools run. I'm definitely seeing a number of listings which couldn't sell last time they were on the market come on now at the same (or even higher) prices. At the same time I'm seeing a non-insignificant number of listings come on and/or trade back at 2013 prices. I think we are in for some "interesting times."
You took a big hit with Aug 27th rolling off. But now you got 2 weekends rolling off and 2 weekdays rolling on. It’s gonna be tough, though. At 916 contracts / 21 weekdays, it’s been averaging 43 contracts per weekday, enough to push you over. But weekends have been part of the picture too, so it’s lower than 43 per day. And the print on Monday was kinda weak, weaker than the rest of the weekdays this past month.
right right. Looking exactly that way..gonna be +/- <20 or so probYou took a big hit with Aug 27th rolling off. But now you got 2 weekends rolling off and 2 weekdays rolling on. It’s gonna be tough, though. At 916 contracts / 21 weekdays, it’s been averaging 43 contracts per weekday, enough to push you over. But weekends have been part of the picture too, so it’s lower than 43 per day. And the print on Monday was kinda weak, weaker than the rest of the weekdays this past month.
It’s gonna be a photo finish still, with you catching up. Maybe 980-990?
hmm, no, but i can ask JohnnyTo give us an idea of how much of this is "normal seasonality" (which of course some of this is) is there a chart of "peak 30 day contracts signed" vs "bottom 30 days contracts signed" by year?