Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Definitely looks like your May 21st call as the ticker top will hold. If you work back from “Be settled in NYC by Sept”, May would be the right month to close. June would be OK too, July would be cutting it awfully close, August would be late (though some will do it because they are committed though late), and Sept would be all done. Will be interesting to see the Sept 30th print…
I think we hit 1800 right after this screenshot, but hey, who is counting right :). So, what's gonna be interesting is where we settle after this fade. September is the weakest month for historical deal vol, in the 600s, so what do we print vs that average? I'm still thinking we fade but end up higher than 600s by the time Sept hits. It's also possible lagging price action rises as pipeline deals close while real time market sees a slight respite
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Do you have this data for rentals? It feels like July will be the peak.

SE shows less than 20K rentals available currently in NYC, compared to 40K+ in the winter. I do remember looking at the number of listings at $20K+ over the winter and seeing it around either 270 or 400. That number is now at 120, which is all the more a contrast because asking prices are appreciably higher for the same thing. Correcting for that by looking at $25K+ listings, there are 81. That’s a factor of 3.4x to 5.0x lower than before, depending on whether my memory of 270 or 400 was right.
U mean ticker style?
 

inonada

Well-known member
I’m seeing this funny dynamic of “running away from a transaction” on some rental listings.
Today’s example is the following listing whose journey started a full year ago in July 2020, with an apt number change in the spring.

07/20/2021Price increased by 32%$25,000 ↑
05/04/2021Listed by Corcoran$18,895
03/16/2021Listing rented$19,995
03/05/2021Re-listed by Platinum Properties$19,995
Price increased by 33%$19,995 ↑
01/06/2021Off market temporarily$14,995
10/06/2020Price decreased by 21%$14,995 ↓
07/28/2020Price decreased by 6%$18,885 ↓
07/13/2020Listed by Platinum Properties$19,995
 

inonada

Well-known member
It’s a very nicely renovated apt and all, with good bones, but it’s on the 4th floor on the corner of 5th Ave & 23rd St. Noise at such locations generally sucks, but 23rd St especially sucks because it is ambulance alley. Maybe this place is worth $5M, and in the current “hot” market it could find a tenant who’d make a bid at the $15K ask they had back in October. But nope, as the market heated up more & more, they ran further & further away….
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
I think it also shows the problem with data in the rental arena - the unit "rented" 3/16/2021. If it "rents" again will it get counted as 2 deals in this year's statistics?
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Yep, like you have been posting for sales on this thread. E.g., rented listings in the past 30 days.
sorry, been a bit sick here. Ok Ill ask engineer about this next week as we just launched some new tools this week that took most of the teams bandwidth. Cool idea. thx
 

inonada

Well-known member
Do you have this data for rentals? It feels like July will be the peak.

SE shows less than 20K rentals available currently in NYC, compared to 40K+ in the winter. I do remember looking at the number of listings at $20K+ over the winter and seeing it around either 270 or 400. That number is now at 120, which is all the more a contrast because asking prices are appreciably higher for the same thing. Correcting for that by looking at $25K+ listings, there are 81. That’s a factor of 3.4x to 5.0x lower than before, depending on whether my memory of 270 or 400 was right.
Now showing just under 18K rentals available in NYC. Pretty impressive rate of change across just 10 days.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Now showing just under 18K rentals available in NYC. Pretty impressive rate of change across just 10 days.
Hmm, that certainly is. I asked my engineer about adding to ticker, waiting for response. Hes a bit delayed with all the new stuff we got in the works. I can have John query up something, however, our rental feed is not nearly as deep as SE with rls/bk mls, so that concerns me about comparisons. Trend likely similar tho
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Hmm, that certainly is. I asked my engineer about adding to ticker, waiting for response. Hes a bit delayed with all the new stuff we got in the works. I can have John query up something, however, our rental feed is not nearly as deep as SE with rls/bk mls, so that concerns me about comparisons. Trend likely similar tho
fyi, engineer says YES to rentals for MH...BK not so fast. Waiting for it to be coded in :))
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Now showing just under 18K rentals available in NYC. Pretty impressive rate of change across just 10 days.
Anecdotally I'm hearing that along with an increase in activity there has been a sizable uptick in agents not officially listing rentals so they don't have to co-broke.
 

inonada

Well-known member
Anecdotally I'm hearing that along with an increase in activity there has been a sizable uptick in agents not officially listing rentals so they don't have to co-broke.
I have been thinking about how the brokerage industry must be a bottleneck at this moment, between the extreme shadow inventory on one side and the extreme return-by-Sept demand on the other. Even if LLs want to list & move more inventory, brokers must have been inundated over the past few weeks and couldn’t keep up. Keeping listings in their own personal “pockets” cannot be helping the situation to match supply with demand.
 
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