Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
But if you are calling current inventory "low" it seems like you are cherry picking the recent very high inventory as "normal." My point is that I don't think current inventory is actually low. Compared to that period current inventory is actually "high." It's only lower compared to "OMG this inventory is ridiculously high" 2019 and after.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
But if you are calling current inventory "low" it seems like you are cherry picking the recent very high inventory as "normal." My point is that I don't think current inventory is actually low. Compared to that period current inventory is actually "high." It's only lower compared to "OMG this inventory is ridiculously high" 2019 and after.
I did call inventory low, But I should call it tight. Sellers dont want to list in a market they cant get a bid they want. Also, seasonality at play. Better to have this chat in 3-4 months as listing season peaks out and see where we get to
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Hearing anectdotelly that there are a lot of buyer inquiries, calls, and activity right now. Inventory still somewhat tight, lets see how this plays out
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
I'm hearing anecdotally that there are lots of agents talking their book

Go on Instagram and check out any post by The Real Deal about Compass (or several other subjects).
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Looks like Contracts Signed January for Manhattan comes in 27% below average and down 41% year over year.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

New listings in Manhattan, Brooklyn rise for first time in 4 months​

January brings measure of optimism to beleaguered market​

The new year brought some good news for Manhattan and Brooklyn homebuyers and agents: New listings went up in January for the first time since September in both boroughs, according to Miller Samuel’s monthly report for Douglas Elliman.
Though the uptick is a positive sign for an inventory-starved market, new listings were still lower than they were a year ago or before the pandemic. In Manhattan, new co-op listings were down 27 percent from January of last year and new condo listings by 22 percent. In Brooklyn, the drops were 22 percent and 39 percent, respectively.

In both markets, high mortgage rates and low inventory continued to drive down contract signings. With financing expensive and few homes on the market, buyers are hesitant to pull the trigger.
“It’s a two-pronged issue,” report author Jonathan Miller said. “Mortgage rates aren’t the sole reason that demand has cooled. Supply is also chronically low and restraining activity.”

New co-op and condo contracts fell in Manhattan by 49 percent and 51 percent, respectively, from a year ago. In Brooklyn, the drops were 56 percent and 64 percent.
Miller said he expects a “year of disappointment” both for sellers, who will have no choice but to lower their prices, and for buyers, who won’t be impressed by the discounts.
“Sellers are disappointed because they’re not getting 2021 prices. Buyers are disappointed because they’re not getting the affordability that they want.”

But even with the challenges, the New York City housing market isn’t all doom and gloom.
“The consumer and the public narrative about the housing market is more negative than [the market] actually is,” Miller said. “We’re starting to see the market move ahead of pre-pandemic conditions for the first time in Manhattan, though it’s been happening in Brooklyn for 3 months.”
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
To play Devil's Advocate:
There's a lot of talk about how new listings are "extraordinarily low." But in January 2015 which was arguably a "great market" there were 1188 New Listings. Only about 10% more than this year.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Updated, new listngs bounced back and are now at trend for the month of Feb..mid 1300s. Still about that much going off/in contract

deal vol, way down, and below trend, is starting to tick higher.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Looks like Manhattan February 2023 ended at 827 Contracts Signed. Down 30% from 1197 February 2022. Brooklyn 475 CS down 27% from 756 in 2022.

For contrast February CS Manhattan for 2010 was 940.
 

inonada

Well-known member
The gap against historical averages seems a bit better than Dec/Jan, but it’s still lagging by a nice chunk. Do you think this is a blip or a trend? Feels like a blip to me.
 

inonada

Well-known member
My guess is that was a lesser effect, with bonus season and one more chunk of cash driving waiting buyers’ finances across the finish line. It’s true that mortgage rates blipped down in Jan, but really that was nothing compared to the trend over the past year.
 
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