Black Monday was October 1987. Transaction volume slowed but we really didn't see much price action start until 1989. Market didn't hit bottom here in NYC until 1992.
I keep hearing about how "no one needs to sell" because they are locked into low rate mortgaged.. This ignores that as we enter recessionary times some people will be losing their jobs and won't be able to meet debt service even on those. It also ignores that you can't stop marriage, birth, death, divorce, retirement, job transfer, and other factors that historically pushed transacting property regardless of how good or bad the market is.
As a result I believe we will see what has happened in several downturns I have been through. Sellers will resist as long as they can. And that will cost them. In the 1990s we had a loft listed on West 17th Street listed at $649,000. The owner turned down an offer of $625,000. They lowered the price to $625,000 and turned down a $600,000 offer. They kept chasing the market down and ended up at $225,000.
I think people in NYC have a somewhat provincial view of Real Estate downturns because of what happened here post GFC. There was a major shock to the system and price corrections, but here in this area it was extremely short lived. I believe that was because the $780 billion federal bailout largely benefited Wall Street and that was a huge support for NYC Real Estate. Elsewhere in the country prices didn't get back to where they were pre-crash until very recently (and some still haven't).
Net, net what I'm trying to get across is that if mortgage rates remain elevated and the economy goes into recession I think sellers should cut their losses and get whatever price they can get today unless they want/have the ability to hang onto these properties long-term into the next up cycle which could potentially take a long time to get back to current levels.