I think the amplitude of the (say) Dec => Feb bump this year was higher than past years. Dec sales ran 23% lower than their 10-year average while Feb sales were only 15% lower. So the bump, relative to historical bumps, was larger this year.
Personally, I don’t think the blip down in mortgage rates were the major driver. They helped, but in the current environment cash is king. Looking at MND headline jumbo rates, they’ve been at 6% +/- 0.5% since September, after a fast rise from 3% a year prior. The fluctuation around 6% is small potatoes compared to the big picture. I think it was more:
1) Buyers waiting in the wings to know their bonuses. We’re in a rate environment where people will finance less, so knowing how much cash you’ll have to deploy directly into RE matters more.
2) Better price negotiability.
I think the latter will continue, but the former won’t.