Sell signal in Market Pulse?

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
I would say yes! The next 1-3 months will show a wave of listigs to hit the market. This will create a natural downward force on the pulse as first the stuff comes, and then the stuff goes to contract at a lag. Buyers would be keep to wait a bit for mid-feb and on as right now leverage is firmly on sell side - Remember, this is liquidity we are looking and talking about here, NOT price action

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David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
We still have tremendous amounts of units which have gone Off Market over the last 5 years which will come back at some point. The problem is that many still can't get the price they wanted when they were last on the market. Perhaps there will be enough demand and not enough supply that some aspirationally priced units will start getting their numbers with huge bonuses about to get handed out.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
We still have tremendous amounts of units which have gone Off Market over the last 5 years which will come back at some point. The problem is that many still can't get the price they wanted when they were last on the market. Perhaps there will be enough demand and not enough supply that some aspirationally priced units will start getting their numbers with huge bonuses about to get handed out.
I agree withe second part but Im wondering if these will come back in a meaningful way? Ifeel like its just naturally inflating with time as the universe of listed units grows over time. Interesting dynamic. I wonder if we can measure it any way
 

nicolebeauchamp

Active member
I think one of the biggest threats to those aspirationally priced resale units is new construction inventory. I think the coops with the aspirational pricing have the most to lose in this scenario for a variety of reasons , pricing, disclosure, length of process etc etc
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
I think one of the biggest threats to those aspirationally priced resale units is new construction inventory. I think the coops with the aspirational pricing have the most to lose in this scenario for a variety of reasons , pricing, disclosure, length of process etc etc
I agree. Even with the booming sale of New Dev last year there's still tons of inventory (although I'm guessing pricing is going to be less attractive). I think in a lot of areas certain prejudices regarding location don't apply like they used to (for example look at all the people who would have been "West of 3rd only" on the UES buying in the new Naftali buildings) and those are also the ones who's alternatives would probably be Coops with "friction" (down payment, post closing liquidity, "process issues", etc).

But I also think a big threat to aspirationally priced units is non-aspirationally priced units. I keep saying that 2021 is not only notable for liquidity on the the buyer's end, but also I think many sellers also coming to grips and meeting the market where it is. We haven't seen what happens if/when a very liquid buyer pool meets a tight inventory/aspirationally priced inventory (yet, anyway) this go round.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
I think one of the biggest threats to those aspirationally priced resale units is new construction inventory. I think the coops with the aspirational pricing have the most to lose in this scenario for a variety of reasons , pricing, disclosure, length of process etc etc
Very good point Nikki! Agree for now, not so sure when looking farther down the timeline, say 2024-2025, wondering if that inventory gets cleared by then and we have a shortage due to the cycle it takes to go from permit to approval to build to sale..etc
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
I agree. Even with the booming sale of New Dev last year there's still tons of inventory (although I'm guessing pricing is going to be less attractive). I think in a lot of areas certain prejudices regarding location don't apply like they used to (for example look at all the people who would have been "West of 3rd only" on the UES buying in the new Naftali buildings) and those are also the ones who's alternatives would probably be Coops with "friction" (down payment, post closing liquidity, "process issues", etc).

But I also think a big threat to aspirationally priced units is non-aspirationally priced units. I keep saying that 2021 is not only notable for liquidity on the the buyer's end, but also I think many sellers also coming to grips and meeting the market where it is. We haven't seen what happens if/when a very liquid buyer pool meets a tight inventory/aspirationally priced inventory (yet, anyway) this go round.
"But I also think a big threat to aspirationally priced units is non-aspirationally priced units. " -- yes! And one cure for high unrealistic prices, is that high price itself. The market will just ignore and the seller likely will come to terms with it over time. Not all sellers, especially not those that want a # that makes their trade make sense
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
But if supply shortage is going to lead to a spike in prices wouldn't you want to wait until after the spike?
 
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