Record Deal Vol in April

Noah- Have you looked at two-year stacked data at all for the trailing 12 months? Would be interesting to see what the "smoothed" deal activity looks like, if you consider the current market is driven in some part by pent-up demand vs. last year which of course was completely COVID impacted. Would be curious to see if the combination of 20/21 data (then averaged) outpaces a baseline year such as 2019 (or perhaps the average of 18/19). No question the activity right now is off the charts, but how does it stack up if we take a bigger, backward looking view?
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Right, so, how about these two looks of the same chart: First one is 3year look showing all months. Second is 1YR view comparison vs 9 year average

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Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Thanks! If you take the 1,607 contracts this April, plus the ~200 from April '20, your average is ~900. A touch below '18 and '19 April levels. Will be interesting to see how this plays out for the next few months.
very interesting thought experiment Eric! cool stuff
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Noah- Have you looked at two-year stacked data at all for the trailing 12 months? Would be interesting to see what the "smoothed" deal activity looks like, if you consider the current market is driven in some part by pent-up demand vs. last year which of course was completely COVID impacted. Would be curious to see if the combination of 20/21 data (then averaged) outpaces a baseline year such as 2019 (or perhaps the average of 18/19). No question the activity right now is off the charts, but how does it stack up if we take a bigger, backward looking view?
While we are seeing record deal volume according so a number of metrics it's not 100% clear that isn't still from pent up demand from pandemic shutdowns. One example if you look at Olshan's Year End Luxury Report and average 2020 with 2021 figures you still don't get higher numbers than the previous peaks 7-8 years ago.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
While we are seeing record deal volume according so a number of metrics it's not 100% clear that isn't still from pent up demand from pandemic shutdowns. One example if you look at Olshan's Year End Luxury Report and average 2020 with 2021 figures you still don't get higher numbers than the previous peaks 7-8 years ago.
Interesting you mention this David, we did a year end review and touched on this topic. If we avg it out, its about 11.5k a yr I think, above 2017-2020levels, but beneath 2012-2013 ish peak levels
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
Noah- Have you looked at two-year stacked data at all for the trailing 12 months? Would be interesting to see what the "smoothed" deal activity looks like, if you consider the current market is driven in some part by pent-up demand vs. last year which of course was completely COVID impacted. Would be curious to see if the combination of 20/21 data (then averaged) outpaces a baseline year such as 2019 (or perhaps the average of 18/19). No question the activity right now is off the charts, but how does it stack up if we take a bigger, backward looking view?
Hmm didnt look at stacked chart for trailing 12mos. Will mention to Johnny Charts but you got a point that is kind of discussed in tomorrows annual report
 
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