Pending Sales over 2K....but....

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Is ACRIS having issues? Looking at condo sales, I see just one (!) filed on Friday, Sept 25, 2020. Usually, there are dozens. System issue? Or is this the COVID contract slowdown working its way through the pipeline? Not sure, but I would assume a slowdown for Apr, May, and June contracts would mean sales for Jul and Aug file faster.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
I spoke to a representative at the City Register and it appears they integrated a system wide update to their sales filing system end of Sep. At that same time, tech and integration issues arose and as of now, no sales have been filed. They do NOT know when it will be resolved, but the ramifications are as follows:

1. Pending sales will APPEAR higher than it really is because by not filing sales the ACRIS pull from pending sales is frozen at the moment
2. If this persists until November, October will have very few sales filings to derive data from and this will affect comps availability as well which already was way way down
3. Pending sales will have a sharp move LOWER once acris restarts files and they catch up


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Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Yes. Every day that passes I imagine a dozen or two sales are not being filed. ACRIS says they are backlogged, so expect a mild fall in pending once they start filing again
 

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Not exactly - market pulse is a measure of supply vs pending, so if anything it will be higher than expected since units are staying in the pending sales status longer. We've actually done A LOT of work on this algorithm in the background to better filter to seasonality for a more apples to apples comparison. Watch the forum for an update when it officially launches!
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
"Market Pulse is actually lower than indicated "

Your both saying same thing and both right - Pending is artifically higher due to lack of acris pull lately. So in reality, pulse is weaker than is indicated.

And yes to what John says, we did a lot of work with our data modeler to optimize pulse and hopefully that is coming soon
 

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Good point.... here's a look at daily closed sales with a 15day moving average so you can see how the pace drops off. Hopefully this upgrade will be worth it!
Daily Closed Sales with 15-day Moving Average.png
 
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