Manhattan Contracts Soar, But Off-Market Remains Stubborn

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Year To Date Contracts Signed vs Year To Date Off Market (As of March 13)

2014: 2520 / 752
2021: 2646 / 2132

So the odds of a unit leaving the market because it was pulled due to not selling in 2021 is 270% higher than in 2014.
 

Rubijo

New member
Yeah but very different time. I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of those listing were pulled by people who decided to stay in NYC. Closing discount to initial offer aren't that bad. I would be concerned if we saw >10% closing discounts.
This may be why the new dev off market is down yoy but the resale off market is way up. I suspect a lot of the resale off markets are people who are decided to stay in NYC.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
You mean like this:

Or this:

Or this:

Or this:

Or this:
 

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Year To Date Contracts Signed vs Year To Date Off Market (As of March 13)

2014: 2520 / 752
2021: 2646 / 2132

So the odds of a unit leaving the market because it was pulled due to not selling in 2021 is 270% higher than in 2014.
Interesting take! 2014 was a hot market getting hotter and while it emerged out of a recovery story similar to 2021, 2014 was defined by a lack of inventory. Mid-March 2014 saw ~3700 actives vs ~7000 today. So I'm not surprised that today's off market is higher: there is more on the market. If we look at off market as a % of active, 2014 was 20% while 2021 is 30%. But that's also what made 2014 so hot: pending sales as a percent of actives was 78% (!!) while today it's 55%.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
So you agree that while we are seeing a lot of activity the metrics of 2014 upward price pressure don't exist (yet, at least) in 2021?
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Yeah but very different time. I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of those listing were pulled by people who decided to stay in NYC. Closing discount to initial offer aren't that bad. I would be concerned if we saw >10% closing discounts.
Sold 02/14/2018 $15,749,500
Sold 06/15/2021 $10,500,000
 
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