Is Brooklyn Really "Booming"?

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Hard to see the 'boom' in a giant macro chart like this. It's far more evident when you slice and dice by price points and neighborhoods. What's happening in Fort Green/Prospect Heights is totally different than what's happening in Sheepshead Bay/Gravesend in terms of market dynamics.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Brooklyn home sales fell at a record rate in Q3
Volume way down, but prices remained intact

Home sales in Brooklyn fell last quarter at the highest rate in 11 years, illuminating the crushing effect of the lockdown on real estate in the second quarter, when most of the contracts were signed.
Buyers purchased 1,481 properties between July and September, according to Douglas Elliman’s market report for the third quarter of 2020. That was 43 percent below the third quarter of 2019,when 2,596 properties sold.
In Brooklyn’s luxury sector, sales fell about 36 percent, from 236 deals last year to 150 this year. Within that sector, condo sales fell 41 percent to a total of 461. Sales of one- to three-family homes fell 43 percent to a total of 704.
Still, home owners stayed firm on price: The average sale price for a home was $969,377, which was just 0.8 percent below the same period last year. The median sales price, $790,000, was exactly the same as last year.

What happened in Brooklyn is not unique; sales that closed during the third quarter largely reflected contracts that were signed when the city was still on lockdown.
“What’s interesting is if you look at the city, most of the third quarters fell sharply,” said appraiser Jonathan Miller of the firm Miller Samuel.
Given contract activity has picked up since the lockdown restrictions were eased, Miller said that there could be an uptick in sales next quarter. Though, he noted, “there’s a lot of ebb and flow in front of us, let alone whenever there’s a vaccine.”

In recent weeks, the number of luxury contracts signed in Brooklyn has increased slightly over previous weeks.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
i always hated sales vol metrics comparing the current quarter or period, without acknowledging the filing lags. Yes covid vol is way down and that is a huge force, but if you wait a few months and then re-measure these sales vol figures, it will be higher and different.. just sayin
 

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Agree. Yes sales are way down, but sales are way down across the board. For stats, you gotta summon get Ms. Jackson: 'what have you done for me lately'. To that end, supply/demand at the hyper-local level is FAR more informative for any buyer, seller, renter, or investor than sales volume. For instance, here is a look at Brooklyn's listing discount (org ask to close) by contract signed date. Yes, the number of deals is down, but look at the listing discount for those fewer deals: certainly not "blood in the streets".
Brooklyn Listing Discount By Contract Signed Date.png
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
But the point is you have brokers screaming that "Brooklyn is Booming." If the truth is "There isn't blood in the streets (at least not yet)" I think that "calling bullshit" isn't just justified, it's warranted.
 

John Walkup

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
I can agree with that. As discussed in another post, a lot of this is just using attention-getting words to sell property by making it seem scarce and in-demand. The truth is many properties in Brooklyn are booming, with a more than expected number of deals going over ask, but in the end, it's properties that boom, not markets. For example, if there's a lack of supply for, say, decent Prospect Heights 2 bed coops with good views, it will seem like a boom for the few ones on the market. Once supply fills the gap and buyers realize they have a choice, seller competition starts and the boom dissipates.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Brooklyn home sales drop by 57%, but prices rise
Both median home price and average PPSF were up by about 4%

The pandemic paradox is holding strong in Brooklyn: Even though the number of homes sold has dipped dramatically from last year, prices remain higher.
An analysis of third-quarter property sales by The Real Deal found that the one- to three-family market in Brooklyn suffered a massive slowdown, with the overall number of deals dropping by 57 percent year-over-year.
From July to September, 582 sales closed in the borough, totaling $660 million. That’s down from 1,356 totaling $1.4 billion in the same period last year. That was also a 20 percent drop from the second quarter, when 727 homes were sold.

While market activity was slow, pricing remained high: The median Brooklyn sale price in the third quarter was $902,000, up 3.8 percent from a year ago.
The average price per square foot rose even more, up 4.3 percent to $480. Prices rose in part because the supply of available homes fell.
The priciest neighborhoods were very similar to the second quarter, with Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Cobble Hill, Park Slope and Prospect Heights topping the list.
The drop in sales volume is a reflection of the city’s Covid-19 lockdown, which started in March and put the kibosh on home tours for several months. Although in-person showings resumed in June, the closing process on homes usually takes 30 to 45 days, so while there may well be an uptick in sold homes in the fourth quarter — the number of signed contracts was up in August — any sales gains have yet to be reflected in the data.

The most expensive sale in Brooklyn’s one- to three-family home market during the third quarter was a single-family townhouse at 314 Hicks Street in Brooklyn Heights. The three-story, five-bedroom home closed for $5.9 million, or at a 13 percent discount from the initial asking price of $6.795 million, according to StreetEasy.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
q3 2019 was easy to beat with mansion tax, more so for manhattan, less so for BK i would guess..still, BK way stronger than Manhattan it seems from my looks at the early data. Need to do a BK sales update and break down list disc trends, etc, we will get on that in a month, after launch of new update and we have more time
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
"In DUMBO, the number of transactions in the real estate fell 31 percent compared to last year, but prices jumped 8 percent. Cobble Hill saw 53 percent fewer transactions and a decline in its median price tag by 9 percent, according to the study."
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
yeah this kind of news will be pervasisve this year. We are still in the deflationary phase where insolvencies will start to show. Sucks, just the way the cycle works. Looking ahead, roaring 20s on the horizon
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member
BK market ticker on Dash - just use the cog/settings to change borough. No Market Pulse yet though, we are working on that. We will start working in a BK market update

1614262344124.png
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

It’s a Home in Brooklyn. What Could It Cost? $100,000?​

Shaun Donovan and Raymond J. McGuire, candidates for mayor of New York, were way, way off when asked to estimate the median home price in the borough
Shaun Donovan, a former housing secretary, guessed the median price of Brooklyn homes was $100,000. He later said he was referring to the assessed value.

Do you know the median sales price for a home in Brooklyn?
The question, which was recently posed to eight mayoral candidates by The New York Times editorial board, was not a trick. Brooklyn is a notoriously expensive borough in one of America’s most expensive cities, and New York City’s housing crisis promises to be a major issue in the coming years.
Yet the range of responses given by two of the candidates — off by roughly an order of magnitude — has touched off incredulity among New Yorkers.
“In Brooklyn, huh? I don’t for sure,” Shaun Donovan, who has touted his experience as housing secretary under President Barack Obama and housing commissioner under Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, answered. “I would guess it is around $100,000.”
The guess from Raymond J. McGuire, an investment banker and former executive at Citigroup who has sought to woo voters with his financial acumen, included similar numbers.
“It’s got to be somewhere in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, if not higher,” he said.
Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, said he believed the number was about $550,000. Maya Wiley, a former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, guessed $1.8 million. Only Andrew Yang, who has been criticized in the past for seeming out of touch with the city’s issues, guessed correctly: $900,000.
Kathryn Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner, guessed $800,000; Dianne Morales, a former nonprofit executive, $500,000; and Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller, $1 million.

While Mr. Donovan and Mr. McGuire are not considered among the leading candidates in the race, it was their answers that drew the most attention, with many people suggesting that they did not have a grasp on the problems of working people. As several people pointed out on social media, among the things that can be purchased in Brooklyn for $100,000 or less, according to the website Zillow: a parking space and two vacant lots.
“It’s hard to imagine these men solving a problem they don’t know exists,” said Monica Klein, a political consultant. The Working Families Party, which has endorsed two other candidates, Ms. Morales and Ms. Wiley, is a client of Ms. Klein’s firm, Seneca Strategies.

“If you don’t spend your days refreshing StreetEasy and obsessing over apartments you will never afford, are you really a New Yorker?” Ms. Klein asked.
According to a note appended to a transcript of the editorial board’s interview with Mr. Donovan, he had sent an email the day after the interview to say that his $100,000 answer referred to the assessed value of homes in Brooklyn, which tends to be much lower than their selling price.
“I really don’t think you can buy a house in Brooklyn today for that little,” he wrote, according to the transcript.

Jeremy Edwards, a spokesman for Mr. Donovan, said Tuesday that Mr. Donovan “misinterpreted the question and made a mistake.”

“He had been volunteering on a complex housing assessment lawsuit and just got the numbers mixed up,” Mr. Edwards said. “As Shaun says, he is a housing nerd and public servant who has dedicated 30 years of his life to solving the problems of housing affordability and homelessness, and the wrong number slipped out.”
In an emailed response on Tuesday, Mr. McGuire said he “messed up when accounting for the cost of housing in Brooklyn.”
“I am human,” he said. “But make no mistake, I care deeply about our city’s affordable housing crisis. I know what it’s like not being able to afford a home because it was my own experience. At the heart of my housing plan, which addresses the entire housing spectrum from homelessness to homeownership, are New Yorkers who want leadership that will bring creative, data-driven solutions to housing in New York City.”

Ray McGuire, a former Citigroup executive, guessed that the median home price in Brooklyn was “$80,000 to $90,000 range, if not higher.”Credit...Desiree Rios for The New York Times
Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow with the Manhattan Institute who is focused on urban economics and infrastructure, said the more inaccurate answers showed “a real sense of being out of touch with what’s going on in the city,” particularly regarding affordability.

She said the last time the median home price in Brooklyn was around $100,000 may have been in the 1980s.

“Buying salvaged houses in Bushwick when it was recovering from all of the fires of the 1970s — that was a unique period of time. You’re looking at 35 years or more since you could really buy anything below six figures, never mind seven figures,” she said.
Of the eight candidates questioned, five — Mr. Adams, Ms. Wiley, Mr. Donovan, Ms. Morales and Ms. Garcia — live in Brooklyn.

The candidates’ answers, Ms. Gelinas said, recalled a comment that George H.W. Bush made when he visited the National Grocers Association convention in Florida during the 1992 campaign. In an article that February, The New York Times reported that “a look of wonder flickered across his face” as he saw the price of a quart of milk, among other items, registered on a grocery store scanner — cementing the impression that he did not understand middle-class life. (Other media outlets have since suggested that the characterization was inaccurate.)
“I think the candidate should at least have a number in the rough vicinity of what is the right number,” Ms. Gelinas said.
She said that the candidates’ answers could hurt them politically, particularly as many voters in New York City seem to not be paying attention to the mayoral race and have, according to polls, not decided who they are voting for.
“This is going to be the way that a lot of people are introduced to McGuire and Donovan,” she said.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Staff member

It’s a Home in Brooklyn. What Could It Cost? $100,000?​

Shaun Donovan and Raymond J. McGuire, candidates for mayor of New York, were way, way off when asked to estimate the median home price in the borough
Shaun Donovan, a former housing secretary, guessed the median price of Brooklyn homes was $100,000. He later said he was referring to the assessed value.

Do you know the median sales price for a home in Brooklyn?
The question, which was recently posed to eight mayoral candidates by The New York Times editorial board, was not a trick. Brooklyn is a notoriously expensive borough in one of America’s most expensive cities, and New York City’s housing crisis promises to be a major issue in the coming years.
Yet the range of responses given by two of the candidates — off by roughly an order of magnitude — has touched off incredulity among New Yorkers.
“In Brooklyn, huh? I don’t for sure,” Shaun Donovan, who has touted his experience as housing secretary under President Barack Obama and housing commissioner under Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, answered. “I would guess it is around $100,000.”
The guess from Raymond J. McGuire, an investment banker and former executive at Citigroup who has sought to woo voters with his financial acumen, included similar numbers.
“It’s got to be somewhere in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, if not higher,” he said.
Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president, said he believed the number was about $550,000. Maya Wiley, a former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio, guessed $1.8 million. Only Andrew Yang, who has been criticized in the past for seeming out of touch with the city’s issues, guessed correctly: $900,000.
Kathryn Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner, guessed $800,000; Dianne Morales, a former nonprofit executive, $500,000; and Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller, $1 million.

While Mr. Donovan and Mr. McGuire are not considered among the leading candidates in the race, it was their answers that drew the most attention, with many people suggesting that they did not have a grasp on the problems of working people. As several people pointed out on social media, among the things that can be purchased in Brooklyn for $100,000 or less, according to the website Zillow: a parking space and two vacant lots.
“It’s hard to imagine these men solving a problem they don’t know exists,” said Monica Klein, a political consultant. The Working Families Party, which has endorsed two other candidates, Ms. Morales and Ms. Wiley, is a client of Ms. Klein’s firm, Seneca Strategies.

“If you don’t spend your days refreshing StreetEasy and obsessing over apartments you will never afford, are you really a New Yorker?” Ms. Klein asked.
According to a note appended to a transcript of the editorial board’s interview with Mr. Donovan, he had sent an email the day after the interview to say that his $100,000 answer referred to the assessed value of homes in Brooklyn, which tends to be much lower than their selling price.
“I really don’t think you can buy a house in Brooklyn today for that little,” he wrote, according to the transcript.

Jeremy Edwards, a spokesman for Mr. Donovan, said Tuesday that Mr. Donovan “misinterpreted the question and made a mistake.”

“He had been volunteering on a complex housing assessment lawsuit and just got the numbers mixed up,” Mr. Edwards said. “As Shaun says, he is a housing nerd and public servant who has dedicated 30 years of his life to solving the problems of housing affordability and homelessness, and the wrong number slipped out.”
In an emailed response on Tuesday, Mr. McGuire said he “messed up when accounting for the cost of housing in Brooklyn.”
“I am human,” he said. “But make no mistake, I care deeply about our city’s affordable housing crisis. I know what it’s like not being able to afford a home because it was my own experience. At the heart of my housing plan, which addresses the entire housing spectrum from homelessness to homeownership, are New Yorkers who want leadership that will bring creative, data-driven solutions to housing in New York City.”

Ray McGuire, a former Citigroup executive, guessed that the median home price in Brooklyn was “$80,000 to $90,000 range, if not higher.”Credit...Desiree Rios for The New York Times
Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow with the Manhattan Institute who is focused on urban economics and infrastructure, said the more inaccurate answers showed “a real sense of being out of touch with what’s going on in the city,” particularly regarding affordability.

She said the last time the median home price in Brooklyn was around $100,000 may have been in the 1980s.

“Buying salvaged houses in Bushwick when it was recovering from all of the fires of the 1970s — that was a unique period of time. You’re looking at 35 years or more since you could really buy anything below six figures, never mind seven figures,” she said.
Of the eight candidates questioned, five — Mr. Adams, Ms. Wiley, Mr. Donovan, Ms. Morales and Ms. Garcia — live in Brooklyn.

The candidates’ answers, Ms. Gelinas said, recalled a comment that George H.W. Bush made when he visited the National Grocers Association convention in Florida during the 1992 campaign. In an article that February, The New York Times reported that “a look of wonder flickered across his face” as he saw the price of a quart of milk, among other items, registered on a grocery store scanner — cementing the impression that he did not understand middle-class life. (Other media outlets have since suggested that the characterization was inaccurate.)
“I think the candidate should at least have a number in the rough vicinity of what is the right number,” Ms. Gelinas said.
She said that the candidates’ answers could hurt them politically, particularly as many voters in New York City seem to not be paying attention to the mayoral race and have, according to polls, not decided who they are voting for.
“This is going to be the way that a lot of people are introduced to McGuire and Donovan,” she said.
lol Andrew Yang must read UrbanDigs! Right, how crazy is this. So much concern over one question and answer from potential would be leaders.
 
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