Did Fed act too late?

[Noah Rosenblatt]

You know my thoughts. The Fed had a great chance last summer to apply the brakes, they chose not to. Now they will have to tighten and raise ffr into a slowing global economy and rising inflationary pressures - no fun

Trio of Former Fed Officials Lament Central Bank’s Actions, See Good Odds of Recession

The Federal Reserve waited too long to take on inflation and its response to it will almost certainly trigger a recession, according to three former central bank officials.

www.wsj.com

 

[David Goldsmith]

The Fed "only" raised rates 50bps and the market rallied. What does that tell you?

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

The Fed "only" raised rates 50bps and the market rallied. What does that tell you?

Expectation of future depth of hikes was mitigated?

 

[David Goldsmith]

So the Fed didn't raise rates when they needed to and they're not going to in the future either?

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

So the Fed didn't raise rates when they needed to and they're not going to in the future either?

You say this because of how equities reacted? C'mon now. The Fed is still behind the curve and is yet to begin QT as they claim

 

[David Goldsmith]

No, I say it when the "smart money" (i.e. insiders) bets against it.

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

Market expectations for a 75bps hike were eased, is pretty much it. Instead of 50 then 75 then 50 -- looks like 50 - 50 - 50 - etc. We likely still end up in the same place. FFR pf 2.25-2.5% by year end? The real kicker is they start selling assets soon, first slowly then gradually increasing, including MBS - so it will be interesting to see how markets react to this - equities and bonds

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521946884507672576

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

This is a good listen on the Fed and fed funds rate etc - https://themacrocompass.substack.co...utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&s=r#play

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

wow -

 

[nicolebeauchamp]

This is a good listen on the Fed and fed funds rate etc - https://themacrocompass.substack.co...utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&s=r#play

Thanks for sharing

 

[Noah Rosenblatt]

Thanks for sharing

ofc! great to hear your voice today Nikki!! hope all is well