Covid Negotiability for Closed Sales by CONTRACT SIGNED date

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Interesting chart here. So usually when you look at closed sales trends for say April or May, you include all closings in those months to define each bucket.

What this misses is the snapshot in time when that deal was signed. For example, if a listing closes today, it will be included in July numbers. But that listing was signed into contract back in April, what would Listing Discount trends be if we viewed a chart like this? That shows sales data by contract signed month, not closing date. Here is what I see:

A few conclusions:
  1. Sales coming today look to representing deals signed in the feb/march period. There is a steep dropoff in sales volume for deals signed into contract after May.
  2. Of the sales we do have for covid, negotiability ranges between 8% and 14%.
  3. Recent months of covid data is too small a sample size to draw good conclusions from
  4. June is looking to be a big down month in regards to price action trends

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David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
When looking at price trends we may need to do a 3 month "edit" - snipping out the shut down period - and rather than thinking "prices went down but then came back up again" see the price trend between just before to after and call all deals during "special circumstances" in the same way that when you are comping out an individual unit you might disregard distress sales like foreclosures, bankruptcies, estates, etc
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
Yeah, I agree.....back in april/may during zoom meetings we would say that covid period sales/stats would have a permanent asterisk next to it for those exact reasons.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Here is an interesting example (and a celebrity sale to boot):

Jennifer Lawrence bought this unit for $15.6 million Aug 2, 2016.

Came back on the market Jul 9, 2019 for $15,450,000 and just closed for $9,990,000. Although contract signed just before COVID-19 hit the markets, based on how much off last asking price I'm willing to bet there was some "COVID-19 negotiations" post contract.

Overall this sale represents a loss of over $5.6 million / 36% from 2016 not including closing costs and over $2 million / 17% off last ask.
 

Noah Rosenblatt

Talking Manhattan on UrbanDigs.com
yeah good example..we will see these kinds of deals in this price tier as the next 3+ months of sales file in. Ill do a story on it at some point and aggregate the data to see if we get any good datapoints. Tend to agree there likely were more covid negetiations there from the feb agreed upon deal

anything over 5m+, especially over 10m+, if that seller needs to sell for whatever reason, there just isnt much of a market right now
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Billionaire’s townhouse sale is a window into pandemic-era luxury deals
Michael Price accepts less than half what he listed home for in 2016

When hedge funder Michael Price put his Upper East Side townhouse on the market with Sotheby’s International Realty in 2016, it was priced at $38 million.
By 2019, Corcoran Group had taken over the listing at 20 East 78th Street, and the asking price was lowered to $26.5 million.
This February — with the pandemic looming — the price was dropped again, to $24.9 million.

Only then was a deal reached for the 8,760-square-foot manse, which is fitted out with elaborate security features including a “panic room” and a vault for shoes and bags. After months of negotiations, it went into contract in June. The final sale price: $18.8 million, according to property records.

As more deeds appear in public filings, a fuller picture is emerging of deals done during the pandemic and how asking prices compare to sale prices. In this instance, there was a $6 million difference from the last asking price, and a $19 million gap — more than half off — from the 2016 ask.

Price and his wife, Jennifer, purchased the Upper East Side townhouse in 2003 for $14 million from socialite Pia Getty. The limestone-and-brick property includes seven bedrooms, 8.5 bathrooms, a wine cellar and a gym.
Price, who runs New York-based hedge fund MFP Investors, has a net worth of $1.2 billion, according to Forbes.

Corcoran’s Loy Carlos, who had the listing with Carrie Chiang, told Donna Olshan in an interview after the contract was signed that negotiations stretched over months. The lockdown triggered some price adjustments and delays, he noted.

“For at least a month, the purchaser had to figure out when he wanted to close because if you want to buy a house, you want to be able to close and do work and that was not possible,” he said. “What’s the point in rushing through a contract [when] you can’t close and do work?”
 
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