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  1. W

    Investor Condos

    I agree with you that housing prices should probably have zero inflation from a fundamental/economic perspective. With your question, I just checked with the inflation-adjusted housing price since 1880 from a historical perspective...
  2. W

    Investor Condos

    I thought you already did the math. I went back to the list and the math seems to work OK with the advertised number Using the advertised price of 550000 and rent of 7500 and property tax of 2079 and maintenance of 1380. 12*(7500-(2079+1380))/1550000*100=3.13 One thing in the descriptions...
  3. W

    Investor Condos

    I will never buy an investment condo by myself even if the cap rate is 5%. It is just not a thing that I want to get into. I am trying to understand the thinking of the person who buys this condo for investment. The no-risk cap rate of 4.7% may come down to 2% in 2024 when inflation is under...
  4. W

    Are developers playing "chicken" with the market?

    I meant they should put 80% in the last sentence as you were commenting. 67%+13%=80%, 67% comes from the second sentence. "If sales continue at this pace, Skyline Tower could be 80% sold out by this time next year" I don't think that they could change the second sentence with "the 801-unit...
  5. W

    Are developers playing "chicken" with the market?

    They probably should have said 80% sold out. 801 * 0.13 / 9.4= 11 months. 80% seems to be a magic number in the condo development.
  6. W

    Brokers Behaving Badly

    Rumor/Conspiracy theory is that the owner pocketed most of the broker fee behind the door. The broker can only get the list if he agrees to the fee to be paid back to the owner.
  7. W

    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Bought in 2018, and then back to market just three years later. Not sure what makes the owner sell it, the owner will lose a lot of money on this condo. If it eventually sells for 12M (a big if), the money lost in the price difference itself is already 1.8M, plus the round trip transaction fee...
  8. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I think what you said is probably applicable to other states. The crash of real estates crash in other states will have some impact on New York. I believe that New York is a recourse state where a bank can go after the owner for the difference between the mortgage and the final selling price...
  9. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I was not realizing how the household savings to net worth ratio impact the investment strategy. The high ratio can always give fresh cash to the investment. I guess the ratio for mine will go down to 2-3% in ten years, it can not be more than 5% even if I could put every cent of the W2 into...
  10. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I only rented in UES more than 20 years ago for one year when I first moved to NYC, then I moved to Queens living in different neighborhoods. I first rented in Woodside, Sunnyside, and Forest Hills, and then bought a coop a little bit less than 10 years ago in Jackson Heigths. Last year, I...
  11. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    This asset allocation change is purely due to the sale of the stock/bond last year for the down payment of the new apartment and renovations of two apartments. It didn't make much difference anyway as both stock and bond went down and also there is not much money left in the taxable account...
  12. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Not sure I am understanding this, I thought you have been long on stocks after the bear markets of 2009-2009 and you should have a lot of prior gains from the long bull market. I guess you always keep a high percentage of net worth in cash, while I have been fully invested after one or two years...
  13. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Yes, this strategy of holding the cash to buy the stock/bond at a cheaper price (say 16% off from the peak rather than 5% off from the peak) as of today. We can not predict the future of the stock market. If the market has a quick rebound like in 2020 and I don't buy the stock/bond now or...
  14. W

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Well, I am giving my own story here. Last year I bought a three bed two bath (about 900K) coop intended for my family's whole life unless we have to change jobs. We had the minimum 20% downpayment with 3% 30-year fixed. If using the comparable rent of a similar size apartment (very hard to find...
  15. W

    Kitchens Ad Nauseam

    The refrigerator is pushed against the wall on the right-hand side with no space between, which leaves no choice of the handedness of the door opening. With the space limitation of the kitchen and the location of the sink and stove, there is no other location to place the refrigerator. The...
  16. W

    Dead Cat Bounce?

    For the super-rich, real estate is just consumption, they don't care about the return of the investment. It's like they bought a super expensive car and then sold it second-handed after a couple of years of driving.
  17. W

    Chart Accuracy

    I don't think you numbers are correct. These number do not reflect what is happening over there. How did you compute the median discount? Are you comparing the median listing price of all townhouses in each neighborhood from this month to previous month or other months? The median price...
  18. W

    Market Pulse at Highs - Sellers are you listening??

    With the increased supply, the market impulse will come down in the first two months of 2021. Due to the very high initial value at the end of 2021, the market impulse can probably still stay in the seller's market during the first two months of 2022. It will be interesting to see how the...
  19. W

    Market Pulse at Highs - Sellers are you listening??

    This is definitely a seasonality issue. In your market pulse curve, almost every year after Nov, there is an uptick in the Market pulse. See the blue lines at the end of each year.
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