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  1. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    Dammit, is that you pulling the strings?!?!
  2. I

    Time kills deals!

    Maybe it just means that overpricing sellers need time to face reality? Not saying that your hypothesis of time killing deals is wrong, but that this might be pointing to another effect.
  3. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    Looks right to me
  4. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    Looks like we got a tight race!
  5. I

    Time kills deals!

    Is this graph based on the first asking price or the last?
  6. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    That's what I meant, the 30-day lookback from Oct 1st. A.K.A. Sep 1st - Sep 30th. I'm saying below 1000.
  7. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    New random wager: will Oct 1st’s 30-day pace of Contracts Signed be above or below 1000, during the “active season”? I’ll be the contrarian w.r.t. “active season” and go with below 1000.
  8. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    Noah & I take this one: Aug leases were higher than Jul according to Miller Samuel stats: https://www.millersamuel.com/files/2021/08/Aug21MHTrent-nlINVmos-scaled.jpg Supply (with all its inherent question marks) down to 1 month.
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    Liquidity back to 2015, Resale pricing back to 2019 & heading higher

    If you haven’t otherwise read it, you might find this thread interesting: https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/46917-new-purchases-arm-rate-expectations The denizens of SE opine about how mortgage rates play into their decisions about purchase, whether they pay down the debt vs lever up to...
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    Liquidity back to 2015, Resale pricing back to 2019 & heading higher

    It does feel like the start of a mini bull run, spurred by: The return to the city The desire for more space Low interest rates Also feels like a temporary overreaction of supply/demand because: The return surge will abate, and the permanent exodus of otherwise Manhattanites is real...
  11. I

    Liquidity back to 2015, Resale pricing back to 2019 & heading higher

    David, I like your observation in post #4 that some sellers needed something to blame for taking a loss. I also get a sense that the pandemic marked an end to many a NYC RE investors’ adventures. After 5 years of price drops driven by nothing other than overpricing & massive development supply...
  12. I

    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Wow, I’m so surprised nobody wanted to pay $16M for that.
  13. I

    Pocket Listings Yes or No?

    “Requiring us not to be anti-competitive is anti-competitive!!!”
  14. I

    Are developers playing "chicken" with the market?

    What do you make of who’s the hero & who’s the villain in this epic saga they’ve spun?
  15. I

    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Here's a fun one to add to our watchlist: https://streeteasy.com/building/150-charles-street-new_york/sale/1535814 05/08/2021 Listed by Douglas Elliman $13,500,000 12/04/2019 Douglas Elliman Listing sold $12,995,000 Previous Sale recorded $11,500,000 07/25/2019 Delisted by Corcoran...
  16. I

    Supertall Condo Aesthetics

    I think this is going to continue being a flop. Take a look at this unit asking nearly $5000 ppsf...
  17. I

    Ticker TOP for 1 MONTH Deal Vol?

    Agreed. It could be that the rush gets packed into the beginning & end of summer, with the earlier side not wanting to miss out on the hot vax summer? Or noise? Nevertheless, it’s still 4-ish straight months where new leases were over 5K, with 5K not having ever happened before even once...
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    For some of us, it’s the phase that drives the timing of the wants. But I have learned & accepted that we are the outliers…
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