Is the rental market going to crash?

So in all of these articles about rising rents people overlook one thing. During the great dip there were rent stabilized apartments up for grabs, often with free months of rent , but they were not as cheap as the market rate apartments. Thiose owners cut their prices like crazy and the stabilized owners could not complete. It just was human nature to grab the shiniest object at the lowest cost.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

What ‘average’ $5K NYC rent gets you now vs. last year — the difference is shocking​

What a difference a year makes! Especially in the case of New York City rental housing, where the average Manhattan rent just blew past $5,000.

Take, for instance, unit 701 at 200 E. 11th St., a 54-unit rental building known as Eleventh and Third, which was leased last week for $6,500 per month. The one-bedroom spread has new glass-panel windows, polished concrete kitchen counters, walnut flooring — and rented in March 2021, a time of pandemic-era lows, for $5,150, with one month free to boot.

“There were concessions being offered on every apartment,” Living New York agent Deeb Sankary, who handles the building’s leasing, told The Post of activity there in 2021. But by the fall of that year, bottomed-out city rental prices had broken even with pre-pandemic levels — and have since risen ever higher, continuing to crush records in the process. “We are at or above pre-COVID pricing. We are seeing this consistently in the East Village and all Lower Manhattan buildings, and we are no longer offering concessions,” said Sankary.

The rent is too damn high, but last year prices plummeted to record lows. What are the differences that today’s bank-busting $5,000 Manhattan average can rent versus how far the money went last year?NY Post coLast week, a unit at 200 E. 11th St. rented for $6,500 per month; in 2021, it did the same for $5,150.

The unit has polished concrete counters and walnut flooring.
A 471-square-foot one-bedroom at 250 E. Houston St. recently rented for $5,050; a year earlier, and seven blocks west, a far more spacious 713-square-foot one-bedroom unit at 229 Chrystie St. cost the same. Last month, $5,055 fetched a 626-square-foot studio at 41 River Terrace in Battery Park City; rewind to the same time last year, $5 less per month was enough to score a 1,454-square-foot two-bedroom at 15 Broad St. in the nearby Financial District.

The precipitous climb has coincided with skyrocketing demand for city housing. Schools reopened, offices eventually did the same and remote-working out-of-towners moved to the Big Apple, all creating a crowded rental market. Tenants started receiving large hikes on lease renewals and bidding wars emerged for scarce availabilities. Then, last month, Manhattan average rents reached a dizzying peak of $5,058 per month — the first time in history they crossed the $5,000 mark, according to the latest Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel figures.
High rents, mixed with low inventory, likely mean these exorbitant prices are here to stay for at least the next few months.
“The peak rental season is in August every year and so we anticipate increased demand over the next couple of months,” said Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel. “In the near term, it seems likely that we’re going to see rents continue to rise.”

So, what does $5,000 even get you in Manhattan these days — and how does it compare to last year, when a number of locals scored sweet deals for better homes? Read on and try not to weep.

SOHO​

Then:

The expansive living area. COMPASS
In posh Soho, $5,000 delivered quite the spread, including this expansive loft at 108 Wooster St., which rented for that sum in February 2021.
The 1,272-square-foot space features hardwood floors, soaring ceilings, large windows and industrial touches such as columns.
There’s also a large living area, a dining space and separate bedroom and office nooks. Meanwhile, the sleek open chef’s kitchen is decked out with stainless steel cabinetry and appliances.
The kitchen. COMPASS A view of the open floor plan with an office nook and a bed nook. COMPASS

“We got the asking,” Compass agent Shawn Williams, who marketed this listing, told The Post. “I had a ton of interest … This would probably rent for at least $7,000 now.”

Now:

You can still get a fairly decent place — just prepare for half the space.
A studio at 349 West Broadway that recently asked $5,000, and rented this week, spans only 450 square feet.
A view of the floor plan. BOND New York The makeshift stairs lead to an upper-level bedroom nook. BOND New York
While remodeled nicely, there’s only a small sleeping loft reached by a staircase that doubles as storage.
While the kitchen is updated with a granite countertop and a dishwasher, there is only a half-refrigerator. And though it has a microwave and Wolf two-burner induction cooktop, there is no stove. The bathroom comes with a marble vanity, a Toto toilet and custom-made cabinetry, according to BOND New York’s Albert Safdie.

MIDTOWN EAST/TURTLE BAY​

Then:

In January 2021, a one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit with city and East River views through oversize casement windows rented for $5,500.
Spanning 907 square feet, the relatively new unit dates to 2016.

Located at 959 First Ave., it offers a custom-designed open kitchen and a sleek bathroom with marble tiling and Waterworks fixtures. Even better: It comes with an in-unit washer/dryer.
Building amenities include a full-time doorman, a concierge, a fitness center, a playroom, a residents’ lounge with an indoor fireplace, a courtyard and bike storage, according to the listing from Compass. The bedroom. COMPASS
Today, you can find it on the rental market for $6,600.

Now:

You can still find nice apartments around the same price in the area, but you’ll be losing out on space and luxury finishes.

Located at 155 E. 29th St. in the Biltmore Plaza building, a one-bedroom, one-bathroom rents without a fee for $4,825.
But it only spans 492 square feet. Still, that’s enough space for a sizable bedroom and living room, plus a small kitchen and a dated-looking bathroom.
The upside to this unit is the building’s cool amenities, which include an expansive pool and a large gym.

UPPER EAST SIDE

Then:

For $5,225 a year ago, you could score a luxury one-bedroom, one-bathroom unit in Lenox Hill featuring windows galore and breathtaking city views.
The living area. BOND New York The kitchen and the washer/dryer in the unit. BOND New York
This particular residence, at 501 E. 74th St., is a corner unit that boasts two glass doors opening out onto a wraparound balcony — a city rarity.
Spanning 792 square feet, it also comes with a windowed chef’s kitchen that includes stainless steel appliances and a washer/dryer, according to the previous listing marketed by BOND New York.
The bedroom. BOND New York The bathroom. BOND New York
Meanwhile, the bedroom features a walk-in closet with a “spa-inspired” bathroom that comes with a deep soaking tub.

Now:

Approximately $5,200 in the same area today won’t afford you the same luxury, but you’ll still find a reasonable unit.
A view of the floor plan with an office space. Glenwood Management
A unit at 300 E. 75th St. spanning 650 square feet offers a sizable living area and bathroom, as well as a separate smaller kitchen. The bedroom is large enough to fit a king-size bed.
Still, this smaller Lenox Hill unit offers no dream features — and a lot less natural light.
This time last year, it leased for $4,295.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

More than 40 percent of the available units in Manhattan currently come from tenants priced out of apartments they leased in 2020 and 2021, according to a new StreetEasy report.

For comfort at the beginning of the pandemic, Cathy Linh Che turned to cooking her mother’s Vietnamese recipes. She could easily find all the ingredients she needed in Manhattan’s Chinatown. But the subway ride from her Jackson Heights, Queens, apartment was almost an hour.
So when a modern, two-bedroom apartment with exposed brick walls and stone floors became available to rent for about $1,700 a month in the nearby Two Bridges neighborhood, she jumped at the opportunity. Ms. Che, an arts administrator, knew it was a little too good to be true, but she said the real estate agent assured her she was likely looking at a future rent increase of about 8 percent. She left her rent-stabilized apartment behind.
Then last May, her worst fears were realized: Her landlord handed her a renewal with a 65 percent rent increase. “I felt angry, I did feel misled,” she said.

Early in the pandemic, renters flocked to what became known as Zoom towns — midsize cities, like Boise, Spokane, and Bozeman, Mont. But big cities, like New York, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco, found themselves on the receiving end of the exodus. Renters left those urban centers in huge numbers, untethered from their desks and any real reason to stay in expensive, cramped apartments. With vacancies soaring, landlords slashed the asking rents to attract tenants. By the middle of 2021, those deals had largely evaporated and as leases came up for renewal, rents rebounded.

What has long been bemoaned — that people who the “Covid discount” are now paying the price for those deals — is now showing in the numbers.
About 44 percent of the available units in Manhattan currently come from tenants priced out of apartments they leased in 2020 and 2021, as landlords demand huge sums for those units, according to a new StreetEasy report released on Tuesday.

Jenika McCrayer said she expects the rent on her Brooklyn apartment to rise by a third, to $2,800 a month, when the lease expires next spring. The freelance writer said she has tried to negotiate with the landlord to no avail.Credit...Clark Hodgin for The New York Times

In the second quarter of this year, almost 14,000 Manhattan apartments became available because the former occupants were sent packing after they were handed renewals with significant increases. Citywide, the numbers are not much better with at least a third of available units — over 22,000 apartments — vacated because of rent increases, according to the report.

The displacement of so many New Yorkers at once is having a ripple effect in neighborhoods around the city, pushing the rental market to the outer limits of affordability.

“The landlords are basically trying to recoup their lost income during the pandemic, and they are asking for rent increases more aggressively on the units that were offered” during that time, said the StreetEasy economist Kenny Lee.
Looking at repeat rentals, StreetEasy found that rents for apartments listed in 2020 and 2021 rose at four times the rate as those listed in 2018 and 2019. A tenant who signed a lease in the first two years of the pandemic would have seen their rent rise by over 20 percent, while someone who signed their initial lease earlier likely experienced a 4.5 percent increase.
The options are bleak for tenants priced out of their apartments, as they enter the most competitive rental market in a decade. Manhattan’s median asking rent soared to $4,100 in the second quarter, a record high for StreetEasy. In Queens, the median asking rent hit a record of $2,600 a month, a 13 percent jump from the previous quarter, and in Brooklyn, it hit $3,200, up 12 percent from the first quarter.
New York has long been an expensive city, with punishing rents. But housing advocates say this market is unlike any in recent memory.
Runaway rents are not only putting pressure on newcomers to the city, but also uprooting existing renters who did not plan to go apartment hunting this summer. Facing massive rent increases, some are doubling or tripling up with roommates, while others are moving to more affordable neighborhoods, fueling competition in areas like Queens, where the number of available apartments fell for the fifth consecutive quarter, to under 9,000, according to StreetEasy.
“This is leading to cascading deterioration in affordability in Queens and Brooklyn,” Mr. Lee said of the migration.

The Metropolitan Council on Housing, a tenants rights organization, has been flooded with calls from tenants whose rents have gone up by huge sums.

“What we’ve been seeing under Covid and post-Covid is a whole new level of housing crisis in a city that is perpetually having a housing crisis,” said Andrea Shapiro, the director of advocacy and programs, who mans the tenant hotline.
At Waterside Plaza, a Midtown complex with 1,470 units, market-rate renters who signed leases during the pandemic are facing 50 percent rent increases while those who moved in earlier are seeing their rents go up by 15 to 20 percent, according to State Assemblyman Harvey Epstein, a Democrat from Manhattan.
The real estate industry points to a persistent housing shortage exacerbated by a dearth of new construction and an influx of new renters as causes for the spiraling rents. Added to that, rising interest rates have pushed would-be homeowners out of the sales market, putting more pressure on rentals.

New York is also recovering from a two-year rental slump when landlords watched their rent rolls dwindle as thousands of New Yorkers left the city during the lockdown, driving up vacancies and pushing down rents. Despite federal and state relief programs like the Cares Act and the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, some landlords insist that they are recouping pandemic losses.
“The City’s housing crisis can be attributed primarily to decades of inadequate rental housing production and fundamentally flawed government rent control policies that have failed to improve affordability for the vast number of New Yorkers who need assistance,” said James Whelan, the president of the Real Estate Board of New York, in a statement.

But the relentless march to high rents has even rattled some landlord groups. “Look, it’s making our particular sector of the industry look bad,” said Vito Signorile, vice president of communications for the Rent Stabilization Association, an organization that represents owners of rent-stabilized apartments, who are limited by how much they can charge. Rents “are going to have to start to come down because nobody can afford these apartments at those rates.”

In June, the Rent Guidelines Board, which regulates rent on the city’s roughly one million rent-stabilized apartments, approved an increase of 3.25 percent for one-year leases, and 5 percent on two-year leases, the highest increase in almost a decade.
The New York Times corresponded with more than 100 people who said they were renters in New York and that their lives had been upended. Some tenants discovered that their apartments were rent-stabilized, and so never should have been subject to such increases. Others confronted landlords unwilling to negotiate increases that ranged from 10 percent to 100 percent, leaving them rushing to find second jobs, new roommates or new homes. Some left New York, moving in with friends or family.
Ms. Che, 42, scrambled, knowing she could never afford the $2,800 a month that her landlord was demanding. “I just moved into a kind of survival mode,” she said. “I had to think about what type of sacrifice am I willing to take on.”
It was a different feeling from her 2020 relocation to the Two Bridges apartment. Then, a friend with a car helped her move, and she furnished her new digs with an “epic trip to Goodwill in New Jersey.” They dragged her secondhand finds up the steps of the fifth-floor walk-up. “I was nesting for the first time, I’ve been searching for home for many years,” she said.
She found a rent-stabilized apartment in May with two bedrooms in the same neighborhood, paying about the same rent as her previous apartment. The building does not have the high-end finishes of her pandemic-bargain apartment. Facing the Manhattan Bridge, she sleeps in the living room, which is quieter than either of the bedrooms. But the neighbors are friendly and the super is responsive. But other tenants, like Kellie Johnson, 39, who unexpectedly had to move while eight months pregnant, have not been so lucky.
“It was a very traumatic experience,” said Ms. Johnson. She said her landlord declined to tell her exactly how much her rent would rise on an Upper West Side two-bedroom that was already costing her and her husband $4,395. She said the leasing agent estimated the increase would be at least 30 percent.

Rather than risk the unknown, she and her husband moved to a two-bedroom in Long Island City shortly before the lease expired and six weeks before their first child was born, paying around $5,000 a month.

“It breaks our heart,” she said. “We had lived in that neighborhood for eight years. We knew every single doorman. We knew people in the neighborhood. We were hoping to blend our former lives with our new lives and that was an opportunity that was not given to us.”
Many New Yorkers moved during the pandemic in search of not just better rents, but better housing. Caroline Lewis and her roommate traded in a tiny Lower East Side apartment plagued with roaches and leaking radiators for an East Village three-bedroom overlooking Tompkins Square Park in October 2020.
“Suddenly we could afford to have a place that had a dishwasher, which was nice, and my bed didn’t touch three of my bedroom walls,” Ms. Lewis, 25, who works in political communications, said of the $3,300-a-month space.
A year later, the landlord raised the rent to $4,700, a 42 percent increase, with an 11-month lease. Rather than move, the pair found a third roommate. Last week their landlord raised the rent again, to $6,300 a month, a 34 percent increase from the previous year, and a 91 percent increase from 2020. A search of the apartment’s rental history shows its highest rent, $4,700 a month, was in 2017.
“It shocked me,” Ms. Lewis said.
The roommates huddled in the living room, calculators out, trying to find a way to keep their household intact. They contacted the landlord, asking to negotiate. “The chances of that happening are slim to none,” Ms. Lewis said. “I may as well win the lottery.”
On Monday, the landlord came back with an offer of $5,800, still out of reach, but close enough to make the decision that much harder. “There’s no real winning in this situation,” Ms. Lewis said, noting that the offer also included an additional $1,700 security deposit. “I either pay $500 a month more and go into debt or I go home and let my best friend down.”

Either outcome means accepting a measure of defeat. “We were getting to a point in our lives where we have an apartment that we like, we have stable jobs, we can actually start to enjoy the city without feeling stressed about money all the time,” Ms. Lewis said. “It’s putting a pause on all of that.”

Tenants whose leases have not yet expired are worried, too. Jenika McCrayer, 31, a freelance writer, recently called her landlord to negotiate a two-year renewal on her Bedford-Stuyvesant one-bedroom, suggesting a modest annual increase. Instead, the landlord told her to expect her rent to rise by a third, to $2,800 a month, when the lease expires next spring.
Ms. McCrayer was appalled. The apartment flooded during Hurricane Ida, and the landlord had done little to repair it. But Ms. McCrayer and her husband have lived in the neighborhood for six years and want to stay in the community where they’ve built their lives.
“I was asking for stability,” she said of the call to the landlord. He “completely shot down the idea.”
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
https://streeteasy.com/blog/nyc-renters-face-toughest-market-in-decade-q2-2022-market-reports/
As Pandemic-Era Leases Expire, NYC Renters Face Toughest Market in Decade

Tenants priced out of their homes likely accounted for more than one-third of NYC rental inventory available in Q2, as landlords looked to make back what they offered in pandemic discounts
As we look to the second half of the year, renters should expect further increases in rents at least through this summer. NYC is rapidly adjusting to a new normal after the pandemic, but the rental market remains hampered by historically low inventory. Unusually tight rental market conditions suggest rents will continue to rise, at least until a seasonal slowdown in demand occurs for rentals after the summer.
Despite gradually improving inventory, asking rents are rising steeply as landlords seek to reverse pandemic-era discounts. Rental demand has remained strong as more people gradually return to the city after a jump in outbound migration during the pandemic. Disappearing rental concessions also suggest landlords remain confident about demand. Meanwhile, priced out of Manhattan, many renters are shifting their search to more affordable areas in Brooklyn and Queens.

Landlords are Making Up for Lost Revenue​

Quarter-over-quarter, NYC rental inventory rose 14% to 65,697 available units in Q2. The strong increase may seem like a positive development for renters, but many of these rentals are expired pandemic-era deals that re-entered the market with significantly higher asking rents. Throughout 2020 and 2021, many landlords offered steep discounts and free months of rent – deals that have mostly lapsed by now.
Our analysis of repeat rentals suggests tenants priced out of pandemic-era discounted leases generated at least a third (34%) of the available inventory in Q2 2022. Landlords have been raising rents more aggressively on units they leased during the pandemic in effort to recoup the earnings they lost. On average, rentals that were listed in 2020 or 2021 and relisted in Q2 2022 showed a 20.4% increase in asking rents per year. In comparison, rentals that were listed in 2018 or 2019 and relisted in Q2 2022 showed a rent increase of 4.5% per year. The 20.4% jump in rent is nearly four times as steep as the yearly increase a tenant would have seen otherwise – which can mean the difference between losing and keeping their current home.

Manhattan Inventory Rose Quickly, But Expensive Units Abound​

Manhattan rental inventory jumped 33% to 31,412 in Q2 from Q1, a stronger than usual quarterly increase. However, about 44% of this inventory was likely made available due to tenants being priced out of their no-longer-discounted apartments. It’s also possible that some tenants decided to leave for non-financial reasons but would be faced with one of the most competitive rental markets in more than a decade. Meanwhile, Manhattan’s median asking rent soared to $4,100 by the end of Q2: the highest on StreetEasy record and equivalent to 55% of the borough’s monthly median household income.

With Low Inventory, Affordability Is Deteriorating in Queens and Brooklyn
As priced-out renters looked for more affordable units in the outer boroughs, rental inventory in Queens declined for the fifth consecutive quarter. The number of available units in Queens fell 9% to 8,984 from the previous quarter. The median asking rent in Queens rose to $2,600 by the end of Q2, a 13% jump from the end of Q1. This is the highest on StreetEasy record and equivalent to 43% of the monthly median household income for the borough.

Brooklyn saw a modest rebound in rental inventory, rising 5% to 23,130 in Q2 from Q1, but still down 48% from what was available in Q2 2021. Rent growth accelerated in Brooklyn as well, with median asking rent reaching $3,200 by the end of Q2, up 12% from Q1. $3,200 is equivalent to 60% of the monthly median household income for the borough – a staggering financial burden for a household.

Elevated rent burdens pose a severe challenge to low- to moderate-income New Yorkers. According to StreetEasy data, median asking rents in June were well above 30% of household income in all boroughs, a rule-of-thumb threshold for being rent burdened. In Brooklyn and Manhattan where this ratio is well above 50%, households would have much less income left to afford other necessities.
percentage-monthly-median-income-rent-2f70d5-1024x915.png

Meanwhile, the share of rentals on StreetEasy offering concessions of at least one month of free rent fell to 7%, the lowest level since 2015. Disappearing concessions reflect landlords’ confidence in rental demand as workers continue to return to the office at least part-time.

Final Thoughts​

Unfortunately, the recent improvement in rental inventory has been largely driven by households being priced out of increasingly unaffordable rentals. In addition, as interest rates rise, more would-be homebuyers may be forced to resign themselves to renting, pushing up the demand for rentals even further. During this transition in the NYC market, we foresee rent increases continuing at least through the end of this summer.
The rebalancing of the NYC housing market could take months to play out, so we recommend renters who have some flexibility to wait a few months and broaden the scope of their search. The recent rent growth in outer boroughs, while negative for affordability, could encourage more homeowners to list their homes on the rental market. Moreover, the prospect of softening sales activity may incentivize current owners to offer their homes for rent instead of selling. This suggests more options will be available in late summer or early fall.
In the meantime, StreetEasy can help renters stay informed on the changing market dynamics of the neighborhoods they’re interested in by exploring the data from our Market Reports on our Data Dashboard. In addition, home shoppers can now use augmented reality to easily search on the go with StreetScape. This new feature in the StreetEasy iOS app allows users to point their phone’s camera at NYC residential buildings and instantly see what’s available inside, giving them a leg up in this competitive market.


Editor’s Note: In March 2020, New York City’s housing market temporarily froze as the COVID-19 pandemic reached the U.S. In 2021, the real estate market roared back to life, with demand returning to both the rentals and sales markets. Year-over-year data comparisons over the next few months will be made against the housing recovery that began in early 2021. Assuming 2022 is more typical of a “normal” year in housing than 2020 or 2021 were, with times of little to no activity followed by massive spikes in demand, we expect many of our year-over-year measures will show significant losses over last winter and spring. We urge you to use caution in extrapolating too much from year-over-year measures in the coming months, and we will always try to provide appropriate context to anchor reported changes in metrics to what is normal or expected.

 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
"Manhattan inventory perhaps had the greatest flux. It jumped 33 percent to 31,412 units in the second quarter from the first, and 44 percent of that inventory resulted from tenants being priced out of their no-longer-discounted apartments. The borough made headlines in June as its average rent topped $5,000 for the first time, while the median rent hit $4,050."
End of Covid rent discounts causes mass migration: StreetEasy

Report shows shift to Brooklyn and Queens as rents plunged, then spiked​

As Covid-era discounts came to an end and landlords sought to make that money back, more than a third of available rentals in the second quarter came from priced-out tenants.
On average, rentals that were listed in 2020 or 2021 and relisted in the second quarter had a 20 percent increase in asking rents, according to a report by StreetEasy.

In comparison, rentals that were listed in 2018 or 2019 and relisted in the second quarter of this year were priced only 5 percent higher.
The findings indicate that rents’ steady upward trajectory has continued in the past several years, albeit with a sudden drop and then spike for units that listed during the pandemic.
The report found that rents rose despite a 14 percent increase in available units — to 65,697 — from the previous quarter.
“I think the landlords are still fairly confident that they can fill their vacancies,” said Kenny Lee, a StreetEasy economist and author of the report. The firm noted that it cannot say definitively that tenants who left apartments where rents rose were priced out; it’s possible that some left for other reasons.

In the quarter, StreetEasy listings offering at least one month of free rent dropped to 7 percent of the total, the lowest level since 2015. Around the peak of the pandemic, the number was close to 30 percent, according to Lee.
Manhattan inventory perhaps had the greatest flux. It jumped 33 percent to 31,412 units in the second quarter from the first, and 44 percent of that inventory resulted from tenants being priced out of their no-longer-discounted apartments. The borough made headlines in June as its average rent topped $5,000 for the first time, while the median rent hit $4,050.

Some renters have fled to the outer boroughs, primarily Queens and Brooklyn, for more affordable housing.
The number of available units in Queens dropped 9 percent, to 8,984, from the previous quarter. The median asking rent in Queens rose to $2,600, a 13 percent jump from the end of the first quarter and the highest ever recorded by StreetEasy.
In Brooklyn, rental inventory rose 5 percent to 23,130 from the first quarter, but was still down 48 percent from what was available a year ago. Median asking rent also climbed, reaching $3,200, up 12 percent from the first quarter.
“The rentals are becoming increasingly unaffordable, but the people still have to live somewhere,” Lee said. “And that leads to really cascading deterioration in affordability in Queens in Brooklyn.”
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

NYC leads US apartment deliveries, which are forecast to hit 50-year high​

About 420K rentals expected this year amid demand squeeze: RentCafe​

Markets across the United States are set for a boost in apartment construction, which can’t come soon enough with demand and rents surging.
Apartment deliveries are approaching a 50-year high nationwide, according to a report by RentCafe. The report, which leans on data from Yardi Matrix’s algorithm and centers on certificates of occupancy being issued, projects 420,000 apartment units will be delivered this year.

The figure is down 3,000 from last year, but marks the second projection above 400,000 units in 50 years.
While apartment construction is on the rise, the industry remains slowed by factors that arose in the wake of the pandemic.
“The construction industry is finally returning to pre-pandemic levels of activity but is still being hampered by three familiar challenges: labor shortages; material costs and availability; and supply chain issues,” said Yardi Matrix’s Doug Ressler.

Dallas-Fort Worth has been No. 1 in apartment deliveries in each of the last four years, but it is ceding the title to New York City. The Big Apple is estimated to have 28,000 units delivered this year, a 50 percent increase from last year. (The Bronx and Staten Island, where few units are built, were not counted toward the projection.)

That’s a welcome development for the city, but does little more than make a dent. A study from AKRF at the beginning of the year identified a need for 560,000 units by 2030, including 227,000 units immediately.

Dallas ranks second in expected deliveries this year (23,000), down 10 percent from last year. It is followed by Miami (19,000), Austin (18,000) and Houston (17,000). Other notable metros in the top 20 of anticipated deliveries include Los Angeles in 10th place (11,000), Chicago in 16th (8,500) and San Francisco in 18th (7,400).
Half of the top 20 metros are experiencing a five-year peak in estimated apartment deliveries, including New York, Miami and Houston.
In terms of apartments actually completed in the first half of the year, Texas remains tops. Houston finished first with more than 4,700 units and Austin followed with 4,200. Miami ranked fourth with nearly 3,000 units, while Los Angeles, Queens and Chicago all had at least 2,100 units delivered.

The mid-year report from RentCafe does need to be taken with a grain of salt. A similar report released last year estimated 334,000 apartments would be delivered by the end of the year, but the total ended up higher by nearly 90,000 units.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Take my apartment, please! Luxury rental concessions are back​

Despite newfound deals, brokers wary to call trend a market shift​

New York’s airtight rental market is starting to show some cracks: Luxury concessions are back.
From Williamsburg to Long Island City to Midtown, brokers and listing sites reveal landlords are again offering a free month, leasing incentives and lower base rent on units that sit.

“It’s only been recently — the last couple of weeks,” said Douglas Elliman agent Jason Amirian.
For a time, surging demand had all but erased the multi-month concessions offered during peak Covid. In July, the median discounted rent in Manhattan smashed yet another record at $4,100, according to Elliman.
But while some agents say the discounts could be an early sign of cooling demand, others are adamant that the party isn’t over.

Where the deals are​

One thing agents agree on is where deals are cropping up: buildings a few avenues from the train in commercial districts where rents run $5,000 and up.
“These are the first types of properties to start bringing back incentives, whether it be one month free, paying the broker’s fee, or paying a move-in deposit,” said the Corcoran Group’s Kunal Khemlani.
The Moinian Group’s Oskar, for example, recently offered one comped month on a 13-month lease. The Hell’s Kitchen mid-rise at 555 West 43rd Street is five blocks from the nearest subway. And last week, The Hollingsworth in office hub Midtown South said it would knock off a month and a half for tenants who sign an extended lease, according to sources.

In part, discounts stem from an overcooked market. The average Manhattan luxury apartment has seen annualized rent rise at least 20 percent each month for the past year, Elliman reports show.
That’s priced out some tenants, Khemlani said, leading to excess inventory. To ease the glut, owners of less desirable buildings are now offering concessions.
“If you’re competing against a great building that has amenities and is close to the subway and you’re two blocks away or you might not have the view, you end up giving the month so you stay competitive,” said Brown Harris Stevens agent Joshua Young.

Outer boroughs beckon​

Although proximity to transit remains a priority for tenants, a quick commute still lacks the pull it once had. Brokers say tenants in upscale buildings continue to have hybrid work arrangements, despite the Labor Day push for select industries to return to the office full-time.
Data show office foot traffic edging back. As of mid-August, New York City office visits were down 29 percent from the same week in 2019. That’s a slight improvement from June and July, when visits were down 33 percent, according to location tracker Placer.ai.
Consequently, luxury apartments in outer-borough neighborhoods with easy access to Midtown are offering deals as residents shy from paying top-dollar to be close to the city, brokers said.
Faced with a 25 percent rent hike at his Long Island City rental next month, Khemlani said his family would likely move farther into Queens.
“We’re looking at Astoria or Woodside or Sunnyside,” he said, “because I also don’t need to be in the office every day.”
Just last week, Two Trees promoted a free half-month and $1,500 rent credit for a two-bedroom at Williamsburg’s One South First. That’s a modest break on a rental priced at $11,995, but StreetEasy shows that a month ago it was asking $1,000 more. The rent is far higher than the median asking price for a luxury unit in Manhattan and the building is about 11 blocks from the closest train.

Mortgage rate fallout​

The sliding sales market is also stoking some concessions, as individual condo and co-op owners who might otherwise sell are offering concessions to rent out their units. With the average 30-year mortgage rate topping 6 percent for the first time since 2008, would-be buyers are sitting it out.
Though concessions are just one sign of a cooling market, others have begun to arise.
Bidding wars, which stretched into the summer, have dissipated this month. Now, many landlords are happy to get a full-ask offer, Amirian said.
And typically, rent cuts are a last resort. Landlords prefer to offer a concession they can pro-rate, as it won’t show up as a hit to their rent rolls in the event of a refinancing.
“A concession looks good when they’re putting their numbers together,” Amirian said.
Still, prices have been slashed in buildings beyond One South First, listings show. In most cases, those units have sat for at least a month.
In Long Island City, for example, a two-bedroom at Rockrose’s 47-05 Center Boulevard has spent 46 days on the market. The owner has dropped the asking rent to $6,200 from $6,450.
The Moinian Group had been even more aggressive, shaving $300 off a one-bedroom at Sky, on 42nd Street in Hell’s Kitchen. The unit listed just 18 days ago. The landlord knocked another $500 off a separate one-bedroom that has hung around since early August.
Rental trackers also indicate waning demand for higher-priced units. MNS Real Estate found in August that Manhattan rents dipped by a quarter of a percentage point month-over-month, the first decline since last September. The drop was driven by doorman buildings, where the average rent for a one-bedroom decreased by 1.12 percent.

’Tis the season?​

Typically, September ushers in a slower rental market. But agents are not ready to say seasonality is back. Having navigated two wildly uncertain years, they know a few dull weeks does not a return to normalcy make.
“It’s not so much, ‘Oh, we’re going into the winter months, we expect everything to cool down,’” said Khemlani. “The seasonal patterns don’t apply this year.”
The agent said because many renters stayed put rather than brave the open market, there have been fewer availabilities than in normal years. As a result, demand could continue to match supply.
Plus, Young said, in buildings that truly deliver a luxury experience — condo finishes, central air, heated bathroom floors — landlords can still nab market prices, sans freebies.
The broker pointed to a building he oversees, Zeckendorf Development’s recently unveiled 115 East 55th Street.
“We’re not giving concessions and we’ve rented 25 percent of the building in the first two weeks that we opened,” Young said of the 58-unit tower.
“I think the luxury market is going to be strong for a while,” he said. “I don’t feel any pullback.”
Agents say concessions have yet to hit less expensive units, meaning the demand shift is not yet citywide.
“The lower-end, middle-end is still very strong; anywhere from $2,000 to $3,000 is still flying off the shelves,” Amirian said, adding that priced-out luxury renters may be boosting that lower-tier.
Rental trackers support that narrative. MNS reported that the average rent for a non-doorman studio, one-bedroom and two-bedroom all rose in August.
“The truth is, we don’t know what’s going to really happen in the next three, four months,” Khemlani said. “It seems like we’re reaching this point of equilibrium, like what comes up must come down. But the market is still pretty strong.”
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Rents have stopped growing – but are unlikely to fall​

Demand will remain strong unless Fed drives up unemployment​

After months of record-breaking growth, New York City rents have finally flatlined.
In August, the median rent in Manhattan slipped 1.2 percent from July to $4,100 and the median rent with concessions dropped 1 percent in the same period to $4,059, according to a report by appraisal firm Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman.

The dips mark the first time since February that Manhattan rents have not broken records, said report author Jonathan Miller, a sign that the market has plateaued.
Prices have leveled off as the city’s vacancy rate has ticked higher for four straight months.

Miller said more availability could be a sign that some tenants who signed Covid-discounted leases were priced out of the city when those deals expired. But moreso, he said, it signals that rents were due to stabilize and that seasonal market patterns have returned.

For the past 15 years, except for 2020, August has seen the most demand of any month as tenants scramble to lock in leases before the fall, when fewer rentals come to market.
“I look at it as consistency,” Miller said.
But the report author cautioned that he doesn’t see rents dropping significantly this fall.
To an extent, the Federal Reserve is to blame. By repeatedly hiking interest rates — including by 75 basis points on Wednesday — the central bank has made financing a home purchase more expensive. Rising mortgage rates have pushed some would-be buyers into the rental market, buoying prices.
But so far, the interest rate hikes have not affected business investment enough to curtail hiring. The unemployment rate is still near a 50-year low, meaning tenants have the incomes, bolstered by pandemic savings, to rent.

Until joblessness rises and tenants’ wallets get thinner, rents are unlikely to drop.
“If it’s the status quo with the economy, I think it’s a moving sideways scenario with rents,” Miller said.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
U.S. Apartment Demand Plunges in 3rd Quarter as New Leasing Stalls More than Expected
New renters filled up U.S. apartments at record levels in 2021 and early 2022. But in more recent months, apartment demand has unexpectedly evaporated in much of the country due to what appears to be a freeze in new household formation.
A surprisingly big slowdown in leasing traffic pushed net apartment demand moderately negative in 3rd quarter at -82,095 units – typically a seasonally strong leasing period. It also marked the first time in RealPage’s 30 years of tracking U.S. apartments that demand registered negative during a 3rd quarter period.

That brought year-to-date net demand to -47,143 units. In turn, effective asking rents – which have been growing at a much slower pace in 2022 compared to 2021 – fell month-over-month (-0.2%) in September for the first time since December 2020. That marks return-to-normal seasonal pricing, as rents typically dip mildly every September, but notably did not in 2021.

Negative demand means that the number of renters moving out of apartments topped the number moving in. Move-outs are seasonally higher in the summer months as more relocations occur, but so are move-ins. Early indications are that move-outs trended toward normal seasonal levels, while move-ins slowed materially.
To be clear, the U.S. apartment market remains on firm footing. Apartment vacancy jumped 1.0 percentage point in 3rd quarter but remained low at just 4.4%.

Is demand weakening due to higher rents? That likely plays some role, but it’s not that clear cut. Renter incomes and rent payments both improved in recent months. Household incomes among new lease signers jumped 13% year-over-year through August (the most recent month available), keeping rent-to-income ratios just above 23%. Rent collections among market-rate renters totaled 95.4% in August, up from 94.9% one year earlier.
Additionally, demand softened for apartments at all price points and in almost all markets of the country; where if affordability was the major driver, the market would see stronger demand pushing down into Class C apartments and into more affordable cities. (In fact, conditions weakened first in Class C despite lower rents and smaller rent increases.)
If it’s not affordability, what is it?
Soft leasing numbers coupled with weak home sales point to low consumer confidence. Inflation and economic uncertainty are having a freezing effect on major housing decisions. When people are uncertain, human nature is to go into ‘wait and see’ mode. Net new housing demand is dependent on household formation – which drove the 2021 housing surge but appears to have frozen earlier this year.
(RealPage laid out this downside scenario earlier this the summer and also correctly predicted that rising mortgage rates were unlikely to boost rental demand.)
Encouragingly, though, low unemployment rates and strong income growth remain tailwinds, as do favorable demographics.
If jobs and wages continue to hold up as they have and inflation cools to some degree, we should see pent-up rental demand unlocked ahead of the spring 2023 leasing season.
Demand for all types of housing boomed in the COVID era due to decoupling roommates and young adults leaving the nest. Additionally, lockdowns and the resulting work-from-anywhere likely pushed forward some future housing demand into 2020 and 2021. Those drivers pushed net apartment demand nationally in 2021 to more than 663,000 units, an all-time high.
By comparison, apartment demand in calendar 2022 could end up in negative territory. Leasing activity is typically slowest in the 4th quarter, when negative demand and rent cuts are seasonally more common. Apartment demand last registered negative over a 12-month period in 2009.

Apartment Rents and Construction

Recent rent movements track with the rise and fall of apartment demand. Month-over-month changes in effective asking rent so far in 2022 have registered well below 2021 every month since April. That’s cooled year-over-year rent growth from a peak of 15.7% in March to 9.0% in September, the first single-digit number since summer 2021.
Peak rent growth is clearly in the rearview mirror. That’s true coast to coast. And with apartment supply set to start increasing, it’s unlikely we’ll see rents re-accelerate even as demand returns.
Apartment construction has reached 40-year highs, with more than 917,000 units under way. Completions are on track to peak in the second half of 2023, with the vast majority competing for higher-income renters at rent levels well above the market norms.
Apartment demand is cyclical while apartment supply is structural. We are structurally undersupplied, with vacancy rates stubbornly low even long before COVID. Many of these new projects will likely face prolonged lease-up periods but in the long run, they’ll fill up.
New apartment starts are expected to soon drop from multi-decade highs due to higher financing costs and softening fundamentals. Until then, keep an eye on how quickly and how robust the absorption of newly delivered units is as that may be an indicator of near-term renter appetite – and therefore future demand.

Apartment Trends by Market

Apartment demand in 3rd quarter 2022 registered negative in 119 of the nation’s 150 largest metro area. Most were rather mild; however, weak demand resulted in more sizable vacancy gains (up to 1.5 percentage points) in a handful of markets led by the Desert region (Phoenix, Las Vegas) and Florida (Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Jacksonville, West Palm Beach).
The one notable exception was Nashville with 1,473 units absorbed – more than double the second-best market (Charleston at 656 units). However, even in Nashville, vacancy ticked up due to even more supply than demand.
A sharper downturn in the pandemic and a later recovery did not spare most coastal gateway metros. Quarterly demand went mildly negative in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Boston and Washington, DC.
Effective asking rents fell month-over-month in September in 80 metro areas, but most cuts were rather mild. Las Vegas was the only major market to cut rents more than 1%, with rents there down 1.2%. Rents remained up year-over-year in every market.
Small rent cuts aren’t unusual this time of year, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see continued cuts throughout the winter – which is usually the best time of year for renters to find better deals.

cnv
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Any Panic in Q3’s Multifamily Data is an 'Overreaction'

Research cites “disappointing” performance in what is typically the peak leasing season.



Apartment demand has proved more sluggish than anticipated, but the market generally is doing what was expected, Greg Willett, First Vice President, National Director IPA Research, Institutional Property Advisors, tells GlobeSt.com.

Third quarter data from Apartments.com, a CoStar company, reported that after four quarters of supply additions outpacing demand, the market is shifting, with national asking rents declining over the last 90 days by 0.4%.

“All signs point to rent growth slowing even faster than initially projected by the end of the year,” Jay Lybik, national director of multifamily analytics, CoStar Group, said in prepared remarks.

Said Willett, “Most thought vacancy would climb, getting back to roughly the historical norm; everybody knew the double-digit rent growth pace seen in 2021 wasn’t sustainable.

“Any panic that’s registering as rents flatten or even decline a little is an overreaction. Limited pricing power as we move toward the end of the year is the normal seasonal pattern. We just didn’t see that routine seasonal slowing in 2020 and 2021.”

Abrupt Downshifts in Mountain & Desert Markets

The previously hot Mountain/Desert region metros clearly are registering the most abrupt performance downshifts, Willett said, while the numbers are holding up better in Texas and most parts of the Southeast.

“Meanwhile, select gateway metros are posting solid stats,” he added. “And the Midwest is showing why slow and steady performances can be appealing at points of overall market inflection.”

Indianapolis (9.1%) and Cincinnati (8.6%) broke into Apartments.com’s top 10 market list for rent growth for the first time ever.

Reversal Runs ‘Fast and Deep’

The multifamily market’s reversal of fortune has come fast and deep, according to Apartments.com. “While year over year rent growth data presents a highly positive snapshot, pulling back the curtains reveals a market where the majority of rents are retreating quickly,” it reported.

Additionally, while Sunbelt markets continue to boast record new unit deliveries this year, the meager positive absorption totals registered year to date taper the impact, Lybik said. “Vacancy rates are expected to rise further in the fourth quarter, pushing rent growth even lower,” he said.

Apartments.com said that absorption continued to remain positive, “but with only 64,000 units newly occupied, the pace of newly delivered units was double at 120,000 units, reflecting a huge shift in market conditions from just a year ago when demand significantly outpaced supply, according to its report.

What’s Really Concerning Apt Owners

Willett said that when he talks with apartment owners and operators now, “many are more concerned about surging expenses than about any softening in revenues.

“Climbing taxes, insurance and staffing costs are topping levels that were anticipated, and that’s what is creating headaches as budgets for the coming year are being put together.”
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Apartment demand unexpectedly fell during its busiest season, according to a new report​

KEY POINTS
  • The third quarter of every year is historically the busiest for apartment rentals, but demand fell this year, according to RealPage.
  • It's the first time the rental technology platform has recorded a third-quarter drop in the 30 years it's been tracking the metric.
  • Asking rents, which had already been growing at a slower pace at the start of this year compared with last year, dropped in September for the first time since December 2020
The third quarter of every year is historically the busiest for apartment rentals, but demand fell this year, according to RealPage.
It's the first time the rental technology platform has recorded a third-quarter drop in the 30 years it's been tracking the metric. Demand fell by more than 82,000 units nationally, according to the report.
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This came after a record number of new renters filled apartments during the first two years of the Covid pandemic. Now, household formation appears to have stalled, with more renters now moving out than moving in.
Apartment vacancies popped 1 percentage point to 4.1%, still very low due to that previous demand surge.
"Soft leasing numbers coupled with weak home sales point to low consumer confidence," said Jay Parsons, head of economics and industry principals at RealPage. "Inflation and economic uncertainty are having a freezing effect on major housing decisions. When people are uncertain, human nature is to go into 'wait and see' mode."
As a result of the slowdown in demand, asking rents, which had already been growing at a slower pace at the start of this year compared with last year, dropped in September for the first time since December 2020, down 0.2%.
Higher rents in general may be turning some potential tenants away, but the slowdown appears to be across all price points.
And current renters seem to be in a pretty good financial position overall. Household incomes among new lease signers were up 13%, year over year, through August, and rent collections improved as well, at 95.4%, up from 94.9% the year before.
"If jobs and wages continue to hold up as they have and inflation cools to some degree, we should see pent-up rental demand unlocked ahead of the spring 2023 leasing season," Parsons said.
There's still one red flag for investors in apartment stocks, though: Apartment construction is now at a 40-year high. Apartment REITs were already getting hammered by higher interest rates, and more supply in the face of falling demand is not a good mix.
Completions of roughly 917,000 new units are on track to peak in the second half of next year — the majority at the higher rent tiers.
"Peak rent growth is clearly in the rearview mirror," said Carl Whitaker, senior director of research and analysis at RealPage. "That's true coast to coast. And with apartment supply set to start increasing, it's unlikely we'll see rents reaccelerate even as demand returns."
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Soaring rents sink apartment demand to 13-year low​

Third quarter levels dive from 21-year high marked in Q1​

Soaring rents threaten a cold spell for leases as renters turn their backs on pricey units and sink demand to its lowest in recent history.
Rental demand in the third quarter dipped to its lowest point since 2009, according to RealPage data reported by the Wall Street Journal reported. The dive in the summer months came in stark contrast to the first quarter, when demand hit its highest point since 2001’s fourth quarter.

The rental software platform illustrates demand by evaluating one-year shifts in apartment occupancy. Demand fell off across numerous major markets, declining significantly from recent quarters in New York City, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas and Chicago.
The drop in demand was also the worst for a third quarter since RealPage began tracking data more than 30 years ago.
For landlords, that’s particularly concerning since the summer months are typically the hottest leasing season. Apartment vacancy ticked up in the third quarter to 5.5 percent from 5.1 percent in the second quarter, according to CoStar data.

With rents up 25 percent in the past two years, according to Apartment List data, renters are looking for ways to cut costs.
In the last six months, 18 percent of respondents to a September UBS survey said they lived rent free with friends or family, up 11 percent year-over-year. It was the highest response to the question since UBS first asked it in 2015.
“It’s a signal that rent can’t continue at the same level it has sustained over the last couple of years,” UBS analyst Michael Goldsmith told the Journal. “We’ve reached a point where renters are maybe willing to pull out of the market.”
 
The last two deals I did showed how uneven the rental market is.
One was a top floor walk up 2br.
I had a flood of applications and it went for 250 over ask. The response was robust.
Same week.
Really nice post-war 1br plus alcove with elevator and laundry in a popular location.
Priced competitively, it rented, but the traffic at the open houses was surprisingly low. I was shocked.
So there was great peak hunger for a shareable 2br despite 4 flights and no renovations, and much less interest for a 1br that I thought represented an especially good value.
I think we are back to some seasonal trend, but will be still seeing some post-covid bump of people moving to NYC to work hybrid or in person.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
From Jay Parsons @RealPage

  • Larger than normal rent cuts are likely
  • Vacancy will increase especially in Class A+ properties
  • Watch for what happens when leasing season begins in March
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

Rents slide or stagnate in 4 out of 5 US cities​

Further drops expected as more supply comes online​


For the second straight month, national rents gave back some of their pandemic gains.
The drops were minimal, but any drop is in stark contrast to the spikes of last year and early 2022.
In October, the median rent for a one- and two-bedroom apartment fell by .08 and .07 percent from September, respectively — the first time in two years both metrics have posted declines, according to the rental platform Zumper.
The drops come as more than half of the 100 most populous metro areas Zumper tracks saw month-over-month declines in median rent. Prices either fell or were flat in 9 of the 10 most expensive cities.
In the New York metro area, which had the highest median rent last year, the metric fell 2.3 percent from September to October. San Francisco, which had the second highest rents last year, the median posted a 2.6 percent drop this month — falling behind Boston.
Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades characterized the declines as a “correction to prices that had become overinflated” during Covid.
The market has begun to normalize as vacancy rates rise in markets where more units have come online and renters resume seasonal patterns, such as delaying moves as winter approaches.

Macroeconomic stressors are also part of the puzzle. High inflation and the threat of recession has pushed more tenants into “wait-and-see mode” as Real Page economist Jay Parsons phrased it earlier this month.
Renters, perhaps considering their job security, are delaying big decisions such as moving out of a parent’s house or moving up to a pricier apartment.
“Now — with a turbulent, unpredictable economy causing fear of recession — migrations are slowing, occupancy rates are falling and rent prices are following suit,” Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades said in a statement.
The firm’s October report forecasts that national rents will slip further as more supply comes online, pressuring “property owners to compete for residents.”
This year should see 420,000 new apartments hit the U.S. market, a 50-year high for multifamily construction, according to RentCafe. New York will get the most of any metro area.
Still, Zumper’s report cautions that tenants should not “expect drastic price drops until supply and demand become more closely aligned.”
Surging interest rates have sidelined would-be homebuyers as financing has become more expensive, keeping them in the rental market.
Earlier this month, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage could reach 8.5 percent. This week it hit 7.3 percent, the highest in over two decades.
Buyers sitting tight in their rentals will continue to stoke competition and preclude a significant drop-off in rents, analysts predict.
Though the pace of annual rent growth has slowed over the past six months, the median rent in October was still 9.2 percent above where it stood this time last year.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
This seems to be bad news for a number of landlords, especially those who converted small buildings/row houses into a couple of larger units.

More NYC renters going solo: report​

StreetEasy finds tenants increasingly choosing one-BRs over roommates​

New York renters are fed up with roommates and are increasingly shelling out big bucks to live without them.
Demand for studios and one-bedroom apartments outpaced demand for larger apartments, and their asking rents rose 18 percent year-over-year to $3,000 last month, according to a report from StreetEasy.
The expense of going solo is not only about dollars but also choice of apartment.
“The opportunity cost of privacy is very substantial,” said Kenny Lee, economist at StreetEasy. “Compared to January 2021…renters have less than half the options to choose from when looking for their own space.”

The desire for solitude could hardly have come at a tougher time for tenants, as rents hit all-time highs this summer and have only come down slightly since. Prices likely won’t see a sharp fall this winter, in part because of the increase in solitary renters and demand from buyers priced out of the for-sale market by interest rate hikes, according to StreetEasy.

Normally, when prices go up, tenants pile together to split the cost. But not so much in the wake of Covid-19.
The cost of independence can run tenants $15,000 to $20,300 a year, depending on how many roommates they would have shacked up with.

Adjina Dekidjiev, a broker with Coldwell Banker Warburg, has noticed the trend.

“I’m seeing people want to live alone and also they’re looking for larger apartments,” she said. “People are more willing to spend more on rent right now and change their lifestyle a bit to get a bigger, better apartment with more amenities.”
Dekidjiev said tenants are looking for more space in part to work from home more comfortably and are sacrificing other activities, such as travel, to afford a better apartment, particularly ones in buildings with a gym and roof deck.

“They’re changing their lifestyle,” she said. “They’re cutting back on other things.”
There is a silver lining for tenants: Rent concessions are rising, StreetEasy reported. In October, the share of listings citywide that received a price cut rose to 18.5 percent, the highest since the height of the pandemic.
“I would emphasize that renters should still expect a bumpy road ahead due to limited inventory of rental units,” Lee said.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
I wonder If we are seeing post peak pricing here.
I'm pretty sure they based their initial $9,195 asking rent using some machine learning program and didn't just pull it out of thin air. Now it's been on the market for 43 days and reduced to $8,545.

I'm wondering if we are going to see some reversion to the mean because pre-pandemic in 2019 the same unit only a couple of floors below was at $7,130 and the with pandemic discount in 2020 for $5,510.
 

inonada

Well-known member
I think so. Total listings went up in the winter, opposite of their typical down. And a unit like this now sits for 4 months, with price chops, rather than renting in 2 weeks:


Less money sloshing around, more worries. E.g., see banking bonus cuts & layoffs.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Check out how many rental listings in this building in 2022 vs total number of units in building.
 

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member
Apartment Rent Growth Set to Keep Slowing This Year
Tenants maxed out on rental spending combined with new apartment supply are expected to moderate increases

The West River apartment complex in Tampa, Fla. A slowdown in rental price increases would bring relief to many tenants whose wages aren’t keeping pace with rents.
PHOTO: OCTAVIO JONES FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
By Will ParkerFollow
Jan. 3, 2023 8:00 am ET

The pandemic-fueled boom for multifamily building owners is fading fast going into 2023.

Apartment vacancies are piling up. The biggest wave of new rental buildings in nearly four decades is expected to cut the pace of rent growth across the country. Some in-demand Sunbelt cities are already experiencing rent declines, in part because many tenants and people searching for apartments feel they can’t devote any more of their income to rent.
 
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