Dead Cat Bounce?

David Goldsmith

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Staff member
Didn't know where to put this.

We have been hearing how the high end market is on fire, prices soaring, etc especially on "quality product."

Well, here is an excellent condition Soho penthouse condo,
Aug 16, 2018CLOSED$13,825,012

Recently listed for $14,000,000.
And one month later reduced to $12,995,000.
 

woodside

Member
Bought in 2018, and then back to market just three years later.

Not sure what makes the owner sell it, the owner will lose a lot of money on this condo. If it eventually sells for 12M (a big if), the money lost in the price difference itself is already 1.8M, plus the round trip transaction fee and realtor fee (in total probably 10% range). I guess if they can afford 12M to begin with, this is probably not a big deal for them.
 

inonada

Well-known member
We have been hearing how the high end market is on fire, prices soaring, etc especially on "quality product."
Who has been saying that, broker-land? It seems brokers tend to conflate an active market (good for brokers) with a rising market. The market has certainly been active, but inventory is plentiful and pricing is definitely not strong. Compared to the peak 5-6 years ago, probably down ~15% at the moment. Compared to 2014 or 2018, down ~10%. Some places have done better, some worse, but that is what I’ve found to be typical.
 

inonada

Well-known member
Bought in 2018, and then back to market just three years later.

Not sure what makes the owner sell it, the owner will lose a lot of money on this condo. If it eventually sells for 12M (a big if), the money lost in the price difference itself is already 1.8M, plus the round trip transaction fee and realtor fee (in total probably 10% range). I guess if they can afford 12M to begin with, this is probably not a big deal for them.
The owner will be fine: he co-founded a company called MoPub that sold to Twitter in 2013.

>> Not sure what makes the owner sell it
I’ll go with “does not use it anymore”.

>> the owner will lose a lot of money on this condo
The owner already lost the money
 

David Goldsmith

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Staff member

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
Staff member

inonada

Well-known member
Started at $23M around $5K ppsf once upon a time in 2017, ended at $13.6M just under $3K ppsf in 2022:


 

inonada

Well-known member
An actual transaction in 2017 on the floor above for $22.4M:


Ouch.
 

inonada

Well-known member
I guess that makes the 2017 loan for $14.6M underwater:


To add insult to injury, the loan resets from 3.25% to LIBOR+2.5% in March 2023, which means 6% at current market expectations on LIBOR.
 

David Goldsmith

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Staff member

David Goldsmith

All Powerful Moderator
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