Recent content by inonada

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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Good Friday & Easter happened?
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    Choosing An Agent

    A little melodramatic, no? in this brutal housing market
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    Are developers playing "chicken" with the market?

    What’s the attraction with this building? It really does not tick any boxes for me personally — location, finishes, architecture — so I’m left scratching my head.
  4. I

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I was way off on March, no? Clearly, I have no clue. Have you noticed the divergence in the high-end market vs the rest? Most of the market has been enjoying a spring pop, but not the top. For example, pending sales at the $1-2M range is “only” down 20% YoY while $10M+ is down 55%.
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    Food Porn

    Your temp is spot-on!
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Given mid-2022 resales went ~10% above 2014 contract prices, that seems like a refreshingly realistic ask.
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    Alternative Floor Plans

    At least it’s listed as a 2BR as-is.
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    A few interesting excerpts: That matches my experience looking at NYC jumbo loans, where I had previously said ARMs outnumber fixed-rates by 2:1 or so. Drastically different than the conforming market, where most reports say ARMs are less than 10% of the mix. I guess it's not only banks who...
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    For your reading pleasure, Keith: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-is-first-republic-worth-c9bbaa8c
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    I tend to poke into mortgage records of NYC home purchases. I hadn't really ever heard of First Republic until I started seeing their names on a material fraction of mortgage records, which were pretty much all jumbos. These are what they are presumably holding in their books. I can't help...
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    A lot changed for a bank over the course of 2022. Very roughly, for each share they used to have $1000 of assets (in the form of loans) and $900 liabilities (ind the form of deposits), meaning $100 of equity. They used to collect $30 interest on the loans, pay $0 interest on the deposits...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I don’t get to see the Market Ticker you posted on Wed. What is it showing now?
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    The issue at this bank, and several others, is that they leveraged heavy into Freddie/Fannie MBS paying a fixed 2% or so for the next (up to) 30yrs. At the root of it, that’s what caused them to collapse. The bank management thought it a good idea to lever 6x into assets yielding 2% for the...
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    Savings And Loan Crisis

    I don’t think that’s actually true, nor has it ever been true: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/deposit-insurance/deposit-insurance-fund/dif-assessments.html
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    Are developers playing "chicken" with the market?

    I count 12 recorded closings. How about you? That’s not a lot after 4.5 years of marketing, to say nothing of the quiet pre-marketing.
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