Recent content by inonada

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    Is Compass the next WeWork?

    Noah, you have mentioned COMP as potentially becoming a generational buying opportunity. What makes you think that, as opposed to going into a death spiral where the brokers jump ship? I have no opinion on the matter (don’t know anything), just curious to hear your reasoning.
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Still trailed the S&P 500, but you know what, good enough.
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Yeah, I’m not feeling it for $36M + $29K/mo in cc+taxes.
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    The owner will be fine: he co-founded a company called MoPub that sold to Twitter in 2013. >> Not sure what makes the owner sell it I’ll go with “does not use it anymore”. >> the owner will lose a lot of money on this condo The owner already lost the money
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    Dead Cat Bounce?

    Who has been saying that, broker-land? It seems brokers tend to conflate an active market (good for brokers) with a rising market. The market has certainly been active, but inventory is plentiful and pricing is definitely not strong. Compared to the peak 5-6 years ago, probably down ~15% at...
  6. I

    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    You figure some of this is / will keep the deal rate afloat for a spell: https://www.wsj.com/articles/they-signed-contracts-for-their-dream-homes-last-year-now-their-borrowing-costs-are-ballooning-11652607001 They Signed Contracts for Their Dream Homes Last Year. Now Their Borrowing Costs Are...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Are you being sarcastic, in that you made money since it all happened, or actually crabbing, in that you were eventually right but didn’t hang onto the trades long enough?
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    BTW, I thought you had been renting the last year and looking to buy in the UES. I guess you’ve already bought, then? Was it in UES or Woodside?
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    IMO, the ~16% drop in stocks seems more palatable than the ~16% drop in bonds. Losses of that magnitude, and more, are par for the course in stocks. OTOH, bonds are often touted as “safe” and a hedge during periods of market turmoil. How much does income savings add to your net worth annually...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I sold my long-held stocks in 2018, rotating the money (in a tax-efficient transfer) into other investments. The valuations had become less attractive over the years, and attractiveness / availability of the other investments had increased. My average stock dollar was up ~3x (didn’t buy it all...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Are you sure? In my experience, had you done that your hindsight would now be saying “Damn, I should have kept my cheap 3% loan and the $400K in cash, to deploy at these cheaper prices!” FWIW, on StreetEasy I made a case for why I could see myself doing just that last year (had I been a...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    I’ll do you one better. I put a slug of cash (~1/6th of net worth) into a few value stocks ~2% below the peak in Jan, as an inflation hedge against holding an equal amount in cash. I still like the stocks at the prices I bought them, but clearly the market disagrees to the tune of ~25%. And...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    Rationally, I agree. But I’ve learned that people do not necessarily behave in ways I consider rational. It’s also going to be interesting to see the effect on people who levered themselves up on RE to deploy cash elsewhere. E.g., borrow via a mortgage at 2.x% to buy stocks, bonds, etc. at...
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    Still doing 1400+ deals a month..but for how long?

    There might be an interesting dynamic that will take a while to work through: 1) People are flush with income & wealth at the moment. 2) There seems to be nowhere to hide. Stocks have been heading down. Bonds have been heading down. Cash has been heading down (in real terms). 3) Rents are...
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    WaPo article on K-shaped recovery in housing

    I get the sense that things have topped out from a couple of things I track, and that inventory is building at the higher asks w/o sufficient bids. One star I track is rental inventory at $20K+, which is at 161. Around Q4 2021, it bottomed at ~95 and has been creeping back up slowly. Another...
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