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So, its 2017….How are we Doing?? Posted by Noah Rosenblatt in Current Events

Let’s take a quick look at the pace of demand for Manhattan residential property. Specifically, how the first 4 months of 2017 have fared vs the past 5 years in terms of contract activity.  More after the jump…

For Manhattan, 2017’s performance to date is healthy, but not strong. We rebounded from the sluggish demand that defined most of 2016, but when we look back 5 years we realize that sellers are dealing with a more “normal” marketplace now vs then. From 2013-2015 the market saw ultra tight supply, bidding wars, cash offers etc, and the leverage strongly favored sellers.

All that began to change in 2016, and if that was the year of normalization, then 2017 is the year the buyers returned. However, the improvement is mainly seasonal, as looking at year over year numbers, we see that 2017’s contract activity ranks 4th when comparing the last 5 years. Check it out.

Here is Manhattan Contract Activity | 5 Years in Y-o-Y format:

Next, here is a quick summary showing Contract Totals for First 4 Months of Year so that you can better visualize how 2017 has performed so far versus the past 5 years:

Let’s call it what it is –> an improving market, yes absolutely. But are we surging? No. Do sellers still have the leverage? Depends on the price point…

Below $2M: yes

$2-$4M: balanced

$4M+: buyers still have the leverage after a tough 24 months for this sector. The high end did cycle down noticeably since late 2014/early 2015, and we did see a trough in early 2016, but there is still value to be found in this sector relative to the peak.

Will start to break down The Luxury Sector vs other Price Points, as well as Neighborhood performance breakdowns next week! Enjoy your weekend!

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