October Mth-to-Mth New Contracts Up Around 28.4%

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Nov 8th, 2010 08:50 AM

A: It is what it is. After a slow summer, October saw newly signed contracts up about 28% from September. To be fair, the pace was down from the same period in 2009. My only response to that would be that 2009 was a crazy year, with a delayed seasonality due to the adjustment process that came with a general market shutdown after Lehman's failure.

Here is your Broker YoY Monthly Bar Chart showing the tick UP in the pace of new Contracts Signed for October (the hover effect will show the exact value):


So here are a few stats for PACE of Newly Contracts Signed:

OCT 2009 -- 931
OCT 2010 -- 749
SEPT 2010 -- 583

The delayed seasonality in 2009, the adjustment year following Lehman's failure, resulted in large YoY gains early in 2010 (compared to a dismal early 2009) and YoY declines for the summer of 2010 (compared to a reflation in summer of 2009). We should take that into account when interpreting YoY numbers against the year that saw major volatility from Oct 2008 to February/March 2009.

For now, deals are being signed and its definitely more active out there than it was in the past few months. Usually the market tapers off as we get past Turkey-day and into December, only to come alive towards the end of January until April/May or so in what is usually our 'active' season.