Midtown East vs Midtown West

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Nov 15th, 2010 09:23 AM

A: This site was designed to be 'all about the interpretations of trends' for all Manhattan - and the trends are always shifting! So lets continue from the last post comparing pending sales (which measures the pace of Manhattan demand as buyers sign new contracts) in both Midtown east and west. This time, lets look at Active inventory trends for both and then a more detailed look at the midtown west submarket.

This is a continuation from Thursdays post, "Midtown East Demand Sluggish?"; which compared pending sales for midtown east vs west in the last quarter. A reader was asking, "I think that there would be a big difference between the different neighborhoods of Midtown East. Would you ever consider breaking them out individually into Sutton / Beekman / etc?". So basically we are talking about separating out 48th - 59th, East River to about First Avenue. Is there really enough data there for real time trends to be meaningful? My response was...

....with a unique real time tracking platform like this we always worry about granularity. Now midtown east has more data so we could possibly break it down, but on that note, shouldnt we separate say 81st and EEA with say the area around 76th and Madison/5th? Those are both the UES? Same with UWS? There are always streets and avenues that are more desireable and at some point its gotta end, hopefully with a good amount of data to track. With annualized reports you can get away with more granularity, but with real time, its better to have submarkets contain more data to show meaningful trends.
Maybe that is why midtown east is acting differently compared to midtown west. Maybe the buyers/sellers there behave differently because midtown east boundaries are 'tighter' than in midtown west, changing how they perceive property? Perhaps not breaking the two down, is what allows us to make these kinds of interpretations.

Here is a look at Active inventory trends for the same two submarkets and time period:


A quick breakdown:

MIDTOWN EAST --> 1594 Active listings
MIDTOWN WEST --> 637 Active listings

*note - these numbers update daily and can be found by hovering your mouse over the most recent point on the chart

Now, that move DOWN in the red line above shows a trend down in Midtown West's inventory, which happens to coincide with the trend up in pending sales we saw from Thursday's discussion (chart below will compare that soon). It seems reasonable to conclude that active inventory in midtown west is trending down as a function of demand, and not because listings are being taken off-market. Midtown east is seeing a steady rise in inventory over the past quarter, with no comparable rise in demand to remove properties from the active marketplace.

Which brings us to the next way to create a chart using our new platform. Lets compare Active Inventory vs Pending Sales for the Midtown West submarket ONLY, and see if we can see the negative correlation:


I'll leave further interpretations up to you guys!