Lower Manhattan Sales Pace Below Market

Posted by urbandigs

Wed Nov 24th, 2010 11:21 AM

A: Its interesting when you look at some of the submarkets and how the pace of sales has kept up compared to the general market. When I look at Lower Manhattan, the pace of sales certainly has not kept up with the general market trends; especially for the past year. Instead, we see a slow and steady rise from the lows of early 2009 without and surges or sluggishness that comes with Manhattan seasonality.

We have not yet enabled a neighborhood to be compared to general market trends (we have it on our list), so for now I chose to use the UES as a proxy for the market - as the UES follows the general market trend quite closely.

PENDING SALES Lower Manhattan vs Upper East Side


Looks to me like the pace of sales in Lower Manhattan is stable and steady, but lagging behind the rest of the market that saw a sharper reflation from the lows in 2009 and a surge in demand early in 2010.

This would make sense after the shock Manhattan experienced post-Lehman. Lower Manhattan is one of those high risk/high reward segments of the market that were more exposed to speculative activity and condo conversions than other neighborhoods. This segment lacks the core buyer pool that makes areas like the Upper East and Upper West, more stable and subject to general market surges in activity.

What are your thoughts? Why would Lower Manhattan lag behind the general market?