Expect A Sluggish Q4 Report

Posted by urbandigs

Thu Nov 18th, 2010 10:52 AM

A: Seasonally, Q4 ends up being slower anyway - no rocket science here. But I wanted to show you how the pipeline of future Manhattan closings is at a lower level, than it was for last quarter's report. Lets hit the charts...

Here we can see Manhattan Pending Sales over the last 6 months:


We show a 32.1% decline in pending sales when tracking it from the peak of the active season earlier this year; some 6 months ago. The pace of new contracts signed lulled out around September and October, which means there will be little fuel to fire any surge in sales in the fourth quarter. We do show a recent tick up that was discussed a few weeks ago, but with seasonal delays its likely that most newly signed deals will close in 2011 and be included in the Q1 report released April 2nd of next year.

For the same 6 months, my system shows a 30.6% decline in ACRIS sales volume and a 32% decline since September 1st - so the sluggishness for the first month of Q4 is in the books. The decline in recorded sales started around the beginning of September.

Here I took a 6-Month ACRIS Sales chart and boxed out Q3 sales in orange and the first batch of Q4 sales in red - you can see that Q4 is at a lower level already and from the looks of pending sales above, there is no surge in the pipeline to follow through: