Seller Tips Archives

March 13, 2008

What Is 'ALL CASH' Worth?

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on March 13, 2008 at 11.54 AM

A: A good topic to discuss considering the environment and the fact that one of my buyer clients unsuccessfully bid over ask in a recent highest & best situation. When you are up against 'all cash' bids, what premium should that offer have over a bid reliant upon financing? The short answer is that it all depends on the seller's risk level and situation, the more creative answer in my opinion is about 2-3% of the purchase price. There is no formula for finding out what 'all cash' is actually worth in any given deal, but it is safe to say that in tough lending environments its value surges!

all-cash-offer-bid-nyc-real-estate.jpgWhat sort of discount should a buyer offering all-cash in this environment expect? On the flip side, how much should an all-cash bid be worth to the seller? Here is a recent situation where an all cash bid took complete control over a multiple bidding situation; I'll discuss the basics with changed details to get to the point of the discussion.

I'm blessed with very savvy buyer clients who are mini-experts on their price point. This buyer was no different and knew a great deal when one popped up. So, going into the first open house (which was active) we knew a strong bid was the very least needed to get this deal. Not surprisingly, multiple offers came in the very next day including ours. We did our diligence, formulated how under-valued we felt the property was priced compared to comps and property condition, spiced up the terms of our final bid, and went for it!

In the end we bid about 5% over ask and just under what we perceived as market value for the apartment. But it was the altered terms of the deal that we focused on to put us on par with an all cash competitive bid that we were told was already submitted; a very tough task to accomplish when credit crunch headlines make front page news everyday. Here is what we did and what you can do if you ever want to strengthen your bid in bidding war situations:

a) provide a pre-committment letter instead of a pre-approval
b) provide credit score; especially if its very strong
c) offer to sign a no-finance contigency contract of sale
d) raise the down payment by 5% to lower debt/income ratio and ease board review process
e) flexible closing date

the standards: point out liquid assets after closing, debt/income ratio if deal were to proceed, attorney info, lender info, salary & employment info, and a little note that we had advised the attorney to do due diligence within 2 business days of full receipt of doc's!

Did it work? Unfortunately no. We lost to an 'all-cash' bid that was also over the asking price. OK, not the end of the world but certainly frustrating. At least we knew our comfort zone and made a strong play for the property. Which brings us to why we lost!

In my opinion, I think we were the highest bid! Of course I'm not 100% sure, but its just a gut feeling after hearing back from the broker.

TO COMPETE AGAINST AN ALL CASH OFFER THAT ALSO HAPPENS TO BE ABOVE THE SELLER'S ASKING PRICE, PROVES TO BE A VERY DIFFICULT TASK IN TIMES LIKE THESE! SO, YOU MUST BID A PREMIUM TO MAKE THE SELLER EVEN CONSIDER TAKING YOUR DEAL THAT INCLUDES SOME RISK!
In normal times, I would say that an all-cash offer should gather 1-2% of the purchase price as a premium for providing the seller with the comfort of bypassing the loan & board approval process; although I have heard of all cash deals getting rejected by a co-op board, though it is not the norm! Let me explain using a similar over-ask multiple bidding scenario as we just went through with the numbers changed:

NORMAL LENDING / MACRO ENVIRONMENT

$895,000 Co-op Property w/ 2 bids submitted

Bid 1 --> $925,000, solid buyer putting minimum required down and financing the rest
Bid 2 --> $900,000 all cash 2.7% below highest bid

SELLER DECISION --> I would bet that the seller would go with Bid #1 and take the extra $25,000 with little risk the buyer will get a loan and pass the board. When I say solid, I mean that this buyer has the financials required by the board for approval.

TIGHT LENDING / MACRO ENVIRONMENT

$895,000 Co-op Property w/ 2 bids submitted

Bid 1 --> $925,000, solid buyer putting minimum required down and financing the rest
Bid 2 --> $900,000 all cash 2.7% below highest bid

SELLER DECISION -->
In today's environment, I'm willing to bet that the all-cash $900,000 offer, even though its $25K less, is extremely appetizing to the seller; assuming of course the seller is aware of what is going on right now in the mortgage markets! It's still over the seller's asking price, who obviously priced low to get a quick sale in first place, and its a lock of a deal both for the loan commitment and the board approval! That is quite a comfort that is certainly worth something.

It's the psychology of the seller that has changed because of the deteriorating credit & mortgage markets. Cash is a very valuable tool for any offer right now, so if you have the means, do use it especially if you want that edge either in negotiating or against competing bids to get the deal done! In my opinion, as long as the mortgage and credit markets are in distress, an all cash offer should be able to win a deal at a 2-3% discount from what otherwise would be an acceptable bid or a competing higher bid!


February 21, 2008

Transformation: My JR4 into a 2BR

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on February 21, 2008 at 1.39 PM

Note: Was asked by a few buyer clients about this topic so I figured to re-publish what I did with my JR4 when I sold. This post was originally published in Jan, 2006 so please put yourself back into time and place. I'll do quick add on at the end.

A: As I wrote about in a previous post, What To Do With Your JR4, I just started renovations on my JR4 in which I'm changing the alcove into a true 2nd bedroom. Marketing a 2BR property in Manhattan should allow me to greatly maximize the return on this $4,500 project!

In New York City, there is quite a disparity between the selling prices of a 1 bedroom and a 2 bedroom apartment. After all, a 2 bedroom apartment gives you enough room to grow into should you decide to have a new baby or a roomate. The price difference in the Upper East Side looks something like this:


AVERAGE SELLING PRICE 1BR / 1.5BTH CONDO IN UES

$750,000


AVERAGE SELLING PRICE 2BR / 1.5BTH CONDO IN UES

$850,000


AVERAGE SELLING PRICE 2BR / 2BTH CONDO IN UES

$1.1 Million

*Note: Add on some premium for prime location, luxury buildings and those apartments that have been fully renovated or have outdoor space!

To market your property as a true 2BR apartment that won't leave buyers frustrated when they come to see it, you will need the 2nd bedroom to be at least 100 sq. ft., have its own window (a must) and HVAC, and its own electrical switches and closet. Just putting a wall up will not cut it and will leave buyers unsatisfied when they come to preview.

Most JR4's have the window and HVAC in the dining/office alcove leaving you with the job of closing off the room, adding a closet, and doing some electrical work. All in all, expect to pay about $5,000 for this work to be done. A new paint job will seal the deal and put your apartment in the 'sell-o-sphere' of a 2 bedroom! You should be able to add on around $75K to your asking price, depending on the last 2BR that sold in your building; although, you will need to price yours lower to accomodate for the lesser total space.

Here is my alcove space before the transformation
:

nyc real estate

Here is how it looks after Day 1:

nyc real estate

Here is how it looks when completed
:

nyc real estate

The 2nd BR measures 10'4" x 10'8" and has a closet with 2 shelves and a pole for suits/shirts/pants. For Manhattan, it is suitable for most buyers who require a 2nd bedroom.

Before I start advertising, I need to do some fine tuning to the floorplan using photoshop to reflect the changed layout. I also need to do some research on what 2BR condo's are going for in my building and my neighborhood. I'll be sure to price mine below these (which is still way above the most expensive 1BR condo listings) to spur activity and get traffic into my open house!! In the end, the goal is to have the most aggressively priced 2BR condo on the market.

ADD-ON (2/21/2008) - Careful with pricing as your target buyer to make this strategy work most profitably is young/mature, looking for a starter home that could be scalable if their family grows! It is not for those who need a true 2BR, an extra 200 sft, at least 2 full baths, and a separate dining room! So, make sure you discount your converted 2BR properly or it will get little traffic.

February 4, 2008

Live Chat , Update, Tips

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on February 4, 2008 at 10.27 AM

In case you didn't notice, I reinstalled the live chat in the right side of urbandigs.com. I'll start doing the chat again daily from 10:00AM to about 11:00AM, or as time allows it. When I'm working, I'll leave the chat online in case anyone wants to talk briefly.

Also, I apologize for light postings past few business days, as I'm very busy right now. Once I get bids in for clients, searches done for new buyers, and appointments all set up I'll work on some new content and views on both the market here and macro updates. All in all, it seems the market here is active which leads me offer a few pieces of advice for both buyers & sellers:

FOR BUYERS
:

Analyze your OWN, UNIQUE situation when deciding whether to buy or not. Try not to get caught up in headlines. If you can afford to buy, have the liquid assets waiting to be put to work, have a 4+ year timeline to own, and are happy with your job security and salary, then follow these easy steps so that the resale-ability of the product you will buy is maximized:

a) LIGHT/VIEWS
b) LOCATION
c) RAW SPACE
d) MONTHLY'S

Visit at least 7-8 properties in your price point so that you become familiar with property size, layouts, property condition, what is considered good light/views, etc.. Become a mini expert on your price point; understand how monthly costs should affect affordability of the purchase price on the open market. When a product comes on the market or becomes priced right both for you & the open market, go for it. Analyze building and neighborhood comps, focusing on the building comps more heavily, and devise a bidding strategy to increase chances of 'hitting' your desired # in the end!

FOR SELLERS:

Depending on your motivation to sell, focus on these two things first:

a) PRICING
b) MARKETING

Doug Heddings points out the importance of product quality, which is so important at resale, but in this case you already own your home so there is nothing you can do to change it. So, after pricing & marketing, you may want to dabble with low cost staging and/or renovations to get your property into tip top showing condition!

Psychology IS important to buyers! As they browse through your home, they try to envision if it will work for them. As they go into deep thought and envisioning, they start adding up what work will be needed to the property. More times than not buyers try to deduct these expenses from the purchase price. It's only in cases of aggressive pricing & packed open houses that this train of through becomes less of a factor.

Here are some quick tips:

nyc real estate1) remove your personal/family pictures wherever possible; remove the YOU element of the property so that you don't disrupt the buyers' train of thought as they envision their family in the apartment

2) floors? Refinishing your floors is a low cost and very high reaction type of renovation! For $2.25 - $2.50/sft, Marc at FloorworksNY can add life to your worn out floor; I'll vouch for his services and used him twice myself. As buyers walk into an apartment with a dull floor, they immediately think of replacing the floor and the high cost of that expense; aprox $15/sft! If the floor is sanded, stained, and poly'd and shines right into the buyers' faces as they enter the apartment, this expensive thought suddenly disappears!

3) try to show at sunniest times

4) staging; anti-clutter the apartment and re-arrange some furniture if need be to make the layout flow properly to maximize viewable usable space. Buyers like to see a large apartment, not a cluttered one that makes it appear smaller.

5) clean; such a simple thing yet I can't begin to tell you how many disgusting apartments I take buyers to. If the place was clean, the buyer wouldn't walk around the property with a grunt on their face the entire time.

6) quote accurate square footage; lying will get the buyers hopes up as they view the property online and disappoint them when they come to see it. A disappointed buyer is a buyer who doesn't submit a bid; and if they do, it's likely to be on the low side.

As to moving the property, obviously with a higher motivation to sell pricing becomes way more important. If you truly price right, you should get buyers into your open houses and hopefully a few bites within the first 3-4 weeks. If you aren't getting any traffic, re-analyze pricing and ask your broker how the property is being marketed weekly?

Good Luck to all!


January 17, 2008

Try This Pricing Strategy

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on January 17, 2008 at 9.32 AM

A: I have been asked by more than six UrbanDigs readers in the past 2 weeks why their properties are not selling, even though the price seems right! And these are the sellers themselves or friends of the seller, but in each case IT WAS ANOTHER BROKER TRYING TO SELL THE PROPERTY! Yet they come to me for advice. Here is a piece I did for sellers last April but the strategy still applies today. For all you soon-to-be sellers out there who are curious to know HOW your property should be priced, try this pricing method.

Price_Is_Right_Logo.jpg

Make 2 data ranges consisting of PAST COMPARABLE SOLDS IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS and CURRENT COMPARABLE ACTIVES now on the market in your building. Its the easiest way to get the most likely range of what your home will sell for on the open market. The fine tuning of the pricing strategy based on current buyer demand, your property's unique features, and your timeline to sell is where it gets a bit tricky.

First let me define 'comparable' for all those who don't understand what this means.

COMPARABLE UNIT - A comparable unit is a unit of the same layout (or very similar in interior size) as your own property in either the building you live in or a similar building nearby. When doing a pricing analysis, it is very important to compare apples with apples! If you own a 1BR w/ dining alcove (JR4 layout), then it is best to do research to see what other JR4's with the same layout have been selling for. Comparing the price per square foot (PPSF) of a 2BR or 3BR that sold a few months ago to yours really doesn't make much sense because quite simply there are fewer 2BR & 3BR property's in Manhattan; and less supply means the product should trade at a premium! In short, your 1BR w/ dining alcove should trade at a slight discount to true 2BR's and 3BR's while taking into account the unique features your property has to offer over past sold units.

Okay, so that is out of the way. Moving on, you need to ask your broker (actually you shouldn't have to ask, the broker should provide this data to you when they discuss the sale of your property) to provide the comparable sales for the past 12 months as well as ALL units that are currently on the market; and the CONDITION THEY ARE IN!

Here is an example (1BR Co-op) of what I do when I visit a potential sales client:

PAST COMPARABLE SOLDS (last 12 months)

30A - SOLD FOR $515,000 (GOOD Condition); 675 sft - closed 10/18/2006
10A - SOLD FOR $547,500 (MINT condition); - 675 sft - closed 10/11/2006
2B - SOLD FOR $510,000 (GOOD Condition) - 675 sft; closed 2/14/2007
16F - SOLD FOR $520,000 (MINT Condition) - 650 sft; closed 10/20/2006
25F - SOLD FOR $590,000 (MINT Condition) - 650 sft; closed 11/17/2006

Range between $510,000 (good condition - 2nd Floor) ---> $590,000 (mint condition - 25th Floor)

CURRENT COMPARABLE ACTIVES (now on market)

Ranges between $600,000 ---> $635,000

Similar report done...(no need to post here, you get the point)

Conclusions? Well, its clear that similar units are selling between the low $500,000's and high $500,000's while current actives are ALL over $600,000! Now that you know the data on what comparable units sold for and what your current competition is, you MUST look at the unique features of the property and do some comparisons to the data just analyzed. These include:

  • Condition of Property - FAIR, GOOD, EXCELLENT, MINT?

  • Floor - The higher the floor, the better the views and natural sunlight (usually). Higher floors should trade at a premium to lower floors and in co-ops, higher floors are allocated more shares per floor to account for this added value. Recall that in co-ops the shares allocated are also used to determine maintenance expenses owed by the shareholder. A shareholder of apartment 2A will own less shares than the shareholder of apartment 30A and will have to pay a lower maintenance expense!

  • Views/Light - Taking the above mentioned feature one step further. Are the views/light MUCH better than similar units.

  • Balcony/Outdoor Space - Sometimes similar lines on higher or lower floors have outdoor space while others do not. A premium must be added for this feature.
  • FINAL VARIABLE - Timeline To Sell

    Finally, and most importantly, we must take into account the seller's expected and desired timeline to sell! After all, time on market and current buyer demand will be directly related to the initial pricing of the property!

    Therefore, I provide clients with three pricing strategies based on all that I discussed above to cover all needs. I would present pricing options something like this.

    Property Description - 1BR, 12th floor, Mint Condition, No Outdoor Space, Must sell fast

    1. TEST MARKET - $590,000. Price at the high range of past solds and under the current competition. Still might take the longest time of the three options presented to move the property.

    2. MARKET VALUE - $575,000. Priced right and based on 13 floors lower than last MINT condition unit to sell at $590,000. Should get the most demand of all the property's on the market and result in a shorter time on market for the seller. Probably will sell between $550,000 - $575,000, so this presents the top of the expected range.

    3. AGGRESSIVE - $560,000. In mint condition this property should get 30+ people at the first open house, especially if the first showing is delayed giving more buyers/brokers time to find out about the listing. The goal here is to get a bid from a qualified buyer within the first few weeks and hopefully a bidding war! In the end, the seller will only accept a price that is agreeable to them and that meets their timeline to sell.

    UrbanDigs Says: On both the premium and discount side of the equation you MUST look at what the features of the property in question has to offer in terms of selling points and marketability on the open market! Based on the data of the past comparable solds and the current competition, a pricing strategy could be derived. Pricing options should be created AFTER this analysis based on the unit owner's TIMELINE TO SELL! When it comes to getting the deal done, its the brokers job to fully market the property properly and the seller's job to agree to correct pricing! In the end, the market dictates the market value of the home, NOT the broker!

    ADD-ON: Ask yourself, does YOUR broker know what kind of market it is right now keeping you ahead of the curve? Or, do you find yourself being convinced of price cuts lagging the market, playing catch up, and therefore behind the curve? In addition, find out where your listing is being marketed, whether the description in print ads is being altered every few weeks, and if the broker is testing out more aggressive marketing venues if things aren't working with the ones they use now.

    Originally Published April, 9th 2007!

    October 29, 2007

    New To Market? Delay & Build Interest

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on October 29, 2007 at 10.33 AM

    A: It's been a while since I discussed a new tip for sellers, so when I noticed this one I thought it would be perfect for those about to put their property on the market! Assuming you are using a broker and understand that maximum exposure means maximum profit potential, it's a good idea to ask your broker to market your property to the brokerage community one week before the first showing! That way, if your apartment is priced right, you will generate plenty of interest for the first showing and create a sense of urgency for prospective buyers.

    bidding%20war_nyc_real_estate.jpg

    A few things have to be assumed for this concept to work properly, so lets get into these first:

    1. Listing With A Broker - If you go it alone then your main medium of advertising is online and in print. Its hard to apply this strategy if you are not getting full distribution to the Manhattan brokerage community. Check out my posts on FSBO Tips & FSBO Checklist if you decide to go it alone!

    2. Full Distribution to Manhattan Brokerages w/out Delay - Some brokerage firms have policies in place that delay the distribution of the new listing to other brokers for a couple of days. If the brokerage firm you are listing with does this, you will have to add a couple of days to the time line so that ALL brokers know of the property a week in advance before any showings.

    3. Property is Priced Right - Yea I know, your home is worth more than everyone else's. Its a common tale and I don't buy it unless your property has something to offer above and beyond its competition; outdoor space, amazing views, unique style, etc..To maximize interest by keeping the property restricted for 7 days, it also must be priced right. If you decide to test the market and overprice, don't expect a crowd on the first day of showings which obviously will generate no sense of urgency; which is the ultimate goal here. Check out my post on Priced Right Apartment Sells in First Month to see why I think pricing is so important!

    Assuming your property meets these 3 criteria, here is what you do:

    ASK YOUR BROKER TO LIST THE PROPERTY FOR SALE TO THE ENTIRE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE COMMUNITY 1 WEEK BEFORE THE FIRST SHOWING OR OPEN HOUSE
    The goal here is generate interest and give time to all brokers who have buyer clients to find the listing. Clearly stating, "FIRST SHOWING NEXT SUNDAY's OPEN HOUSE" in the listing description or similar will do the job! There is no doubt that the majority of deals in Manhattan real estate are co-broke's where both buyer and seller are represented by a broker. So, you must take advantage of this aspect of your target buyer pool and reach out to the brokerage community as much as possible.

    UrbanDigs Says: It's a little thing and something most brokers don't do, but when applied correctly this could be a very powerful way to start off the marketing of a new listing! If its an open house that is the first showing, just the fact that so many buyers will show up with brokers and on their own should create a psychological sense of urgency and might get the seller a few bids for fear of losing the apartment! In addition, the thinking that goes on in the buyer's heads are that this property must be a great value if so many people are coming in to view it. Both situations are favorable for the seller. Hopefully its enough to get you a serious bid. The only downside to this is if the seller gets caught up in the action and decides to get greedy in response to bids that might come so early! As I mention in my post, "Don't Mess Up In Here", most of your action will happen in the first 3-4 weeks so be sure not to dismiss an early offer just because it came early! In the end a quick sale is generally what most sellers want!

    Originally Published March 15th, 2007

    September 19, 2007

    Utilizing All Marketing Tools To Sell

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on September 19, 2007 at 9.19 AM

    A: Its been a while since I wrote about this sell-side topic, but I have been asked recently by fellow brokers and individual sellers what marketing efforts I like to use to provide services 'above and beyond' what normal full service brokerage firms offer. In terms of selling at top dollar, I believe in the maximum exposure = maximum profit potential model. In the end, its the traffic/feedback received, or lack thereof, that is the best indicator of whether you are priced right or not and what level of action may be needed.

    In today's world, buyers are very savvy! The convergence of technology and blogging has brought a wealth of information and individual perspectives to the computer screens of buyers out there adding transparency and information to an otherwise very mysterious transaction process. Thats all a good thing! But for brokers that do their best to market a client's property and get them top dollar, sometimes things don't go as planned. Is it the broker's fault? The brokerage firm? The seller? The property? The price? The marketing services? What?

    Well, it could be a combination of any of those things but there is a way to assure your seller that it is not your fault or the quality of marketing efforts. That is why I inform my clients exactly how I will go about marketing their property when I first meet them, as well as provide them with REAL DATA on what their building and comparable units are selling for. No need to mess around here with lies about promising a selling price $200/sft higher than a recent comparable sale. If the seller is that stupid to work with the agent that promises the highest price, than I don't want to waste my time with their overpriced property! So, I choose the honesty route and hope that the quality of service is appreciated.

    Broad based marketing covers the listing's inclusion in ALL brokerage systems at my disposal: TAXI, OLR, ROLEX, LIMO, etc. to share the property's details with every brokerage firm doing business in Manhattan. I fully understand the importance of co-broking (some 7/10 deals are co-brokered) and inviting the brokerage community to view my listings. Then I do the standard corporate marketing services that include the brokerage's webad, feeds to sites like nytimes.com, nymag.com & streeteasy.com, building mailings, brokerage office emails, brokers I know that do business in that building, and weekly NY Times print ads. Going out of your way to show the property when a call does come in is an individual character trait. But what else can I do to pro-actively get more exposure for my clients listing? Here are two highly efficient services that I like to utilize which are not covered by most standard brokerage marketing services:

    1. Feature The Listing on Streeteasy.com

    My use and feelings about streeteasy.com are known here. I think its a great buy-side search site with a wealth of information about NYC listings, neighborhoods, buildings, past solds, and school zoning. But for brokers, they also offer a 'featured listing' service for an extra fee of $50/week. A no brainer in my mind. For that cost, your listing will rotate with other brokers that bought this service on their main site and at the top of all search results. Here is an example of how this added service can help gain exposure for a property listing; in this case for my seller of a Trump Place 1BR/1.5BTH Condo:

    streeteasy-ad.jpg

    If I can get a few phone calls from this marketing service and find a buyer that otherwise may have missed the NY Times print ad or the listing that was combined with every other similar listing out there at this price point, then its worth it!

    I know that Streeteasy gets over 150,000 unique visitors a month, and I want my listings at the top in plain view of all those prospective buyers!

    2. E-Blast Manhattan Brokerage Community

    There are two companies that offer brokerage e-blasts to pro-actively promote a listing (great for open houses or price reductions) to brokers. The hope here is to reach out to a broker who may have a client whose needs match the details of your client's listing! You can't just assume that all brokers know how to find a particular listing and you never know who has that perfect client looking for just the type of property that you are trying to sell. What if that broker missed your listing and never brought it to the attention of their client?

    You never know. I have sold properties before using this kind of service. I usually send out an e-blast to advertise a open house or a price reduction. You have to be careful though not to overuse this service and stale out the listing!

    The two firms that I consider using for e-blasts are:

    A) OLR
    B) Gotham Photo Company

    UrbanDigs Says: Never just put a listing out there and wait for a call to show it! These are relatively low cost options that can greatly expand the exposure that the listing gets; and in this business, marketing is everything! If the marketing efforts are high quality and you use every known medium at your disposal plus these added efforts to maximize exposure and still aren't getting the traffic, then its a price issue. Giving your client transparency with your overall traffic and feedback from prospective buyers that do see the property is absolutely crucial information that the seller should know! Sometimes its NOT the broker's fault! Sometimes, its the market and the price that is to blame and unfortunately there is nothing that we can do about the market. Which leaves us with the price! Don't be ashamed to ask your seller for a price cut, especially if you put in the extra effort and go above and beyond what is provided by your full service brokerage firm to get the word out. Cutting the asking price is still the most direct way to stimulate traffic for any listing so be sure you stay on top of recently closed sales in the building and surrounding area to assess where you currently stand! Good luck!

    August 22, 2007

    Living In A Tougher Lending World

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on August 22, 2007 at 9.30 AM

    A: I think back to November 2001 when I first bought real estate here in Manhattan. For the most part, the memory is still there although being almost 6 years ago. I was a NASDAQ Equities trader with Tradescape (at the time I was trading for over 3 years) and recently went through 2 very dramatic events; the dot com crash and 9/11. Trading was not only volatile but it was physically and emotionally draining at that time. As a contrarian investor seeking to buy my first piece of NYC real estate, I was disappointed that I couldn't get what I wanted for the price I was able to afford. I started following NYC real estate aggressively in 1999 when I started making money. With 9/11, the NYC real estate market had a brief but sudden correction; nobody wanted to hold on to properties and all of a sudden deals were to be found. My eyes lit up and I signed a contract in November 2001 and closed on the property on April, 5 2002; some 5 months later. Why so long? Because I had such a tough time getting my loan! The past has finally caught up with us!

    no-doc-loan-stated-income-lending-standards.jpg

    I recall the seller being super pissed. I recall my attorney doing everything he can to buy me more time to secure the loan. I recall weeks and weeks of phone calls with my lender demanding more documents to back up my income. This is February & March of 2002. This is before lending standards starting loosening up so drastically which helped power the recent national housing boom. This was the time when the 30 YR fixed rate fell to 6.875%, and continued to fall for years after; I ultimately refinanced in 2005. This was the time I thought I would lose the deal of a lifetime.

    I purchased a 1,093 sft JR4 condo at 245 East 93rd street for $500,000; Denice Rich of Corcoran was the selling broker. Actually, the sellers were asking $479,000 for the property because they wanted the place sold in '2 weeks time'; a bidding war erupted in the first 3 days after 40+ people packed the Sunday open house. An aggressive strategy that was common for that time period in New York City as residents had the fresh scare of terrorism in their minds and buildings were still being evacuated at least once every week or two for safety precautions; sellers wanted out! A crazy time to be buying to say the least but a good time for any contrarian investor who sees the longer term reward potential that comes with buying an asset that is down & out with mainstream investors.

    But I almost lost the deal. I had trouble getting the damn loan commitment because...

    1. I was a self-employed Equities Trader working AFTER the market crashed
    2. I had declining income reported in 2001 compared with 2000
    3. I had to come up with the last 3 years Tax Returns
    4. I had to take a higher interest rate that I originally had a problem with
    5. I had to provide bank statements & pay checks for last 3 months
    6. I had to get a expected income verification letter for 2002 from my CPA saying my income would rise from 2001's.

    It was hell. The whole process totally drained me. As if trading in a post stock market crash environment wasn't enough I had to deal with angry sellers, relentless sellers' attorney's, a tough lender, a hard trading market, and the questioning that comes with buying after the worst terrorist act in recorded US history. But the deal was too good to pass up on and I was determined to put up with the headache of getting that loan commitment so I can proceed to closing. I did and I finally closed on the property in early April, 2002.

    The only reason it took so long was because I had to prove to my lender that I actually earned what I said I earned and that I could actually afford this property going forward. And for those that say, 'why didn't you call a different lender', I did! No one else would talk to a self-employed equities trader after the markets got hit so hard! Oh, one lender offered to work with me at a rate of 8.75% for a 30YR fixed; I didn't bend that far!

    My Point: We are returning to a lending environment more like this! We are in the very early stages of tighter lending and underwriting standards after we got so used to no standards at all for the past 3-4 years! Looking forward, buyers will have to prove their earnings and employment. As Michael McGivney, a Wells Fargo Private Banker, said back on Aug. 10th:

    Last week, a client getting approved for an interest only product, like a 5 year ARM, on a $500,000 loan qualified on the payment of $2604 at a rate of 6.25%.

    Today, that same client, to qualify for the same loan, will need to have enough income to qualify for the "fully indexed, fully amortized" payment. That means they MUST qualify at a rate of 11.25%, fully amortized. That means a payment of $4863!!!!!! That's nearly DOUBLE the payment. That means they must have nearly DOUBLE THE INCOME!!!

    And they will need to have the documents to prove that income before the loan gets committed to! Adjust accordingly and be prepared! This credit squeeze is only 5-6 weeks old in the tradable markets minds; although many have been waiting for this to happen for years.

    It's going to take more than a few months to adjust to such a different world after years of loose lending standards. For any seller thinking about accepting a deal from a buyer whose income is derived 100% via self-employment, be sure that they can back that up with documents so you have no issues with the deal closing!

    For more in depth talk on this topic, read my post last week titled, "Adjust Your Risk Tolerance For Loans".

    August 16, 2007

    Adjust Your Risk Tolerance For Loans

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on August 16, 2007 at 9.37 AM

    A: Pre-approvals mean sh*t! Thats right, I said it, and it had to be said! I've been advising clients on both the buy and sell side of this for about 2 years now as the typical offer when submitted includes an offer letter, financial statement, and pre-approval from a lender. In this new world of high cost risk, limited loan options, drying up of liquidity in RMBS markets, liquidation of assets to cash, and tighter underwriting / lending standards it is absolutely crucial that the dealmakers focus on the loan aspect of the transaction and making sure that will go through!

    risk-tolerance.jpg

    This post is for BUYERS & SELLERS of Manhattan real estate, or any market really, as you adjust to changing market conditions due to macro economic events unfolding; specifically in the credit markets as liquidity dries up.

    I've posted before on what you need to do to submit an offer for a property here in NYC, which basically includes:

    1. Offer Letter - Includes your initial offer, your job position and company, length at job, total salary, liquid assets leftover AFTER closing, attorney info, expected closing date, and lender info.

    2. Financial Statement - Includes a snapshot of your financial situation such as total assets (liquid and not liquid), total debts (include min payments if high), total salary and bonus.

    3. Loan Pre-Approval - 1-page document from lender with building address shown and loan amount minus down payment. Don't worry if loan amount you are pre-approved for is higher than what you plan to bid, it is for strengthening your offer ONLY and NOT to give away your negotiating hand.

    In today's world of high cost risk, limited loan options, tighter underwriting standards and uncertainty, it is critical that both buyers and sellers do their homework BEFORE submtting and accepting a bid. The last thing you want is to do a deal with an unknown lender that can't come through with a loan commitment days before your expected closing. This should now be viewed as a real possibility for any buyer with:

  • weak credit

  • self-employed / limited docs available to define income or paid taxes

  • use of an out of state, unknown lender because a lower rate is quoted
  • As Tanta of Calculated Risk timely states the quote of the day yesterday from Washing Post article:

    "What I'm telling people is that they should not shop around for the lowest rate necessarily," Binstock said. "Go with the lender who you think is going to be there in the end."
    Thats SOLID advice!

    UrbanDigs Says - BUYERS ---> For the best rates, stick to dealing directly with a bank rather than a broker or middleman that makes a commission on the deal. Also, go with a bank that has a large presence and is absolutely based in Manhattan. I'm thinking of the Wells Fargo's, Chase's, Citibank's, etc. that do business here.

    UPDATE: 12:28PM - Manhattan Mortgage Company is also worth a phone call as I am hearing that rates are as competitive as direct lenders and they are a big presence here in Manhattan. If anything, call a few for comparative purposes and let me know if this has changed in past few days, but I dont think it has!

    SELLERS ---> Its not all about what price you get, it's also about buyer quality and ability to get a loan commitment so the deal gets done! Now is NOT the time to mess around with iffy, subprime borrowers that are self employed and wrote off 60% of their stated income in their past 2 years tax returns! Give more weight to buyers that have solid jobs, have solid income, minimal debts, and are able to produce any and all required doc's to a lender as the underwriting process starts AFTER the contract is signed and appraisal is ordered!

    A pre-approval does NOT mean a loan commitment!! That is your new mantra!

    August 7, 2007

    Playing NYC Housing With Credit Fears

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on August 7, 2007 at 10.20 AM

    A: First off, everybody needs to relax, take a step back, and re-analyze their own personal situation. Take a deep breath. The world is not coming to an end. The era of ultra liquidity is coming to an end. The era of stupid loans being made to buyers who never should be buying is coming to an end. The era of no doc loans, 100% financing, stated income, etc. is coming to an end. But Manhattan housing will always have value. While our marketplace is not immune to a recession, time and again NYC has proven to lag in housing downturns and lead in recoveries. Which brings us to to YOU!

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    Whether or not you should be buying or selling in the current New York City real estate marketplace is a decision tailored to your own unique situation. You should not make rash decisions about an article you read in the paper. You should not sell your home because Bear Stearn's announced that two hedge funds went under. You should sell your home if you find yourself in financial disarray due to a job loss and dwindling savings account. In short, take a step back, look at your own situation and then make an educated decision GIVEN the current environment we are in. Here are some tips starting with our current environment.

    The New World - This is a changing lending environment where job security, salary, and credit actually mean something! The days of no doc, stated income, 100% financing are over! Lucky for us that really doesn't apply for us in Manhattan. Lets not forget that Manhattan is 75% co-op (down from 80% or so given all new construction) which requires a strict set of financial guidelines for prospective purchasers.

    However, just how exposed our buyer pool is to wall street and interest rate increases is still yet to be seen. It's something to keep an eye on. For now, the credit crunch is hurting suburban markets and highly speculative urban markets (like Miami or Phoenix) way more than it is hurting us. In New York, there is just no shortage of qualified buyers who are fully capable of getting a loan! You can't even attempt to buy something here if you were hoping for no down payment and stated income loan. Forget about it. We never had those types of buyers here, nor did we have the level of speculative investing that other markets had. On the contrary, the current Manhattan real estate marketplace could be described as having limited inventory, plenty of willing and able buyers, high salaries, very limited rental alternatives, high and rising rental rates, and foreign buyers taking advantage of currency trends. Certainly a market that I would feel safer investing in and working in compared to many other local US markets when looking at the fundamentals driving it.

    For Prospective But Nervous Buyers - Re-analyze your situation! Plain and simple. Stop trying to time the market or get caught up in all the headlines in the media. The media is enough to drive a man insane, especially if that man doesn't understand the current environment we are in and reads a doomsday article. Instead, focus on the four items that I talk about often here on urbandigs.com.

    1. Job Security - Do you have a job? The word for today is Job! J - O - B! Before even thinking about buying a new apartment, you should be sure you are happy and comfortable with your current job and that there is very limited chance that you will get fired or relocated in the very near future! Job security should be viewed as a blanket of comfort.

    1. Salary - Assuming you answered 'Yes' to #1, what is your gross salary? Is it high enough to provide you with a debt to income ratio of 30% or under? To do this, add up all your current monthly minimum payments (or debt payments you are required to pay) and add in what your total monthly costs of living would be with your new purchase. Take that # and divide it by your monthly gross take home pay. What do you get? Here is an example:

    Minimum Debt Payments
    (Car, Credit Cards, Student Loans) = $750/Month
    Mortgage Payment (including interest before tax benefits) = $1,800/Month
    Maintenance Costs = $600/Month
    Real Estate Taxes = $400/Month
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL MONTHLY COSTS - $3,550

    Buyer Joe Shmo Earns $120,000/Year (including bonus) OR $10,000/Month Gross

    To get the debt/income ratio divide $3,550/$10,000.

    3,550 / 10,000 = 0.355

    Joe Shmo has a debt/income ratio of 36%. Joe Shmo could be OK buying a condo but should make sure the bank will lend given his higher than hoped for monthly expenses. Some banks like to see a debt/income ratio under 28% and most co-ops like to see a debt/income ratio closer to 25%. In the real world, Joe Shmo could pull this off, especially if he does not live a luxurious lifestyle and is a bigger saver than spender! Joe Shmo could easily put more money down to lower his debt/income ratio to closer to 28% if he has the liquid assets. Lets get to that now.

    3. Liquid Assets - You need to have some savings before you buy a new property. It costs money to buy or sell a home, so you need to take into account how much down payment plus closing costs will come out to. AFTER these closing costs, you should have liquid assets leftover to show the board, or if its a condo, for your own emergency funds.

    For co-ops, a general rule of thumb is to have at least 1 years worth of maintenance plus mortgage in liquid assets after closing. Stricter co-ops can as for 2 years worth of assets.

    For condos, its more up to the buyer's comfort level but 6 months of maintenance plus mortgage in liquid assets should be viewed as a minimum after closing. You would rather be closer to 1 years worth of assets, but if your salary is high, you could pull it off with less!

    4. Timeline To Own - Very important. You should have a timeline to own of at least 4 years! Preferably 5 if possible! That way, you have enough ownership time to take advantage of tax benefits via deductions of interest and taxes, paying down equity and building wealth, and appreciation of the asset. If your timeline to own is 2 years or less, don't even consider buying. The transaction costs alone will make the investment hard to profit from. If its in the middle at 3 years, you have a decision to make; if renting out afterwards is an option then lean towards buying, if not then don't.

    For Prospective But Nervous Sellers - Don't make rash decisions based on articles! This one is easy. Only sell right now while credit concerns is headline news if you are in:

    1. Financially Disarray - If you lost a job, took a huge pay cut, or are using savings to cover living expenses than I would stop messing around and liquidate your biggest asset; i.e. sell your house! If you can't afford to live in your home then chances are you will be forced to sell at a later time, and that is a position that no seller should be in if they want to get top dollar at resale. Having a time pressure to sell forces you to aggressively lower the price of the property to move it quicker! Instead, sell now when inventory is so tight and buyers are still plentiful to avoid what could be a bad situation to sell in at a later time.

    2. You Know 100% You Will Sell In Near Future - If you are completely certain you will be selling your property within the next year, and have options at your disposal to move in elsewhere or be relocated, then consider selling now. No one knows how these credit issues will ultimately play out and if you will be forced to sell in say 6 months but have a time pressure to close the deal by, then I would rather you sell now when you are not in any rush!

    See the consistency here? I want you to avoid being a seller in a distressed situation and would rather you choose to sell sooner rather than later if you are in financial trouble or know for a fact you will have to sell in the very near future!

    May 7, 2007

    How To Handle A Bidding War

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on May 7, 2007 at 9.45 AM

    A: I got an email from a FSBO (for sale by owner) the other day asking me for advice on how to handle a multiple bid situation. She knows about bidding wars and priced her property low enough to produce one, but she didn't know the best way to handle a bidding war. Very understandable given this seller is on her own and without a broker to advise her on how to proceed. Here you go.

    bidding-war-manhattan-real-estate-nyc.jpg

    First off, you must know how to interpret when a bidding war exists (especially if you are selling a co-op with board requirements)! It is NOT as simple as getting 2 verbal offers. A bidding war should arise when you receive COMPLETE BIDS IN WRITING (see Brady's post titled, "The Art of the Offer: How To Submit A Bid" for details on how to submit a complete bid) that are:

    Within the ACCEPTABLE PRICE RANGE / TIMING FOR CLOSE of the seller AND Financially Qualified to buy and pass the board
    Assuming that two or more bids are received that meet the above mentioned criteria, you could create a bidding war situation. It is very important to note that the intended seller strategy of a bidding war is to encourage a sense of urgency via potential property loss and NOT to install fear into the prospective buyers. I can't begin to tell you how important this is. By installing fear into the bidders rather than encouragement to participate in the bidding war, chances are you will 'scare away' and lose one of the bidders messing up the entire goal of the war.

    The ultimate goal of the bidding war is to procure the highest & best bid that generates a signed contract for the seller! Let me repeat that so as to keep the ultimate goal very clear!

    The ultimate goal of the bidding war is to procure the highest & best bid that generates a signed contract for the seller!
    If you get a great bid because of a bidding war that fails to produce a signed contract, than you got nothing out of the deal and are back to square one with only 1 bidder who may feel questionable about why the first deal fell through. So, here is your step by step guide as to how to handle this situation that is in the best interests of the seller and the prospective buyers that are participating in the bidding war.

    Step 1: Confirm A Bidding War Could Exist - Did you receive multiple bids in the acceptable range of the seller that are financially qualified to purchase the apartment and pass any board requirements? If a bidder fails to meet one of these criteria than you don't really have a bidding war situation since one of the bidders is meaningless.

    Also, make sure both bidders don't have any restrictions on the time line to close the deal that may conflict with the seller's time line for closing.

    Step 2: Announce the Bidding Procedure & Deadline - Announce to ALL parties the bidding procedure plus deadline for submitting their final bids. It may look something like this:

    "Due to the high level of interest the seller has decided to give all interested parties the opportunity to present them with their "Highest and Best" offer by 11 AM Friday May 11th. The seller will accept the winning bid by 12 noon Friday and the contract of sale will be delivered to the buyer's attorney shortly thereafter."
    You will also want to include the items expected with any bid in writing. You could say something like:
    "All offers must include the following information.

    1) Offered price with financial analysis. Please specify if it's contingent upon financing or not and how much. Pre-approval letter should be provided from Manhattan based lender.
    2) Proposed closing date.
    3) The buyer's full names, address and social security numbers.
    4) The buyer's attorney details. (Name, address, phone and email)"

    Step 3: Announce Expectations For Winning Bid - Announce to ALL parties before hand what the expectations are for the winning bidder. The reason you do this is to ensure all bidders that the winner will be given X amount of time to have their attorney complete diligence and generate a signed contract. It could look something like this:
    "The winning bid will have until 12 noon May 18th to deliver a signed contract with 10% down payment to the sellers attorney. If the sellers attorney is not in receipt of the contract by set time the seller will move forward with the back up offer immediately."
    Lets not forget the meaning of 'BEST & FINAL' and that a deadline was presented to the bidders. You must honor this deadline and give the winning bidder a chance to generate a signed contract. Should the winning bidder NOT produce a signed contract by the previously disclosed timeline, the seller can move on to the other offer. In the real world deals fall through and buyers get cold feet. There is nothing you can do about this other than be prepared to move on to the next qualified bidder.

    Step 4: Announce Any Unit/Bldg Info - Now is NOT the time for surprises! Be sure to announce any assessments, delayed/expedited closing dates, inclusions, or any other matters of fact that will ultimately come out when the winning bidder's attorney does diligence.

    Step 5: Announce Complete Marketing Until Signed Contract - Announce to all parties that the property will continue to be shown and marketed until a signed contract of sale is provided to the seller's attorney with 10% deposit! This does not mean you will go behind your word of giving the winning bidder a chance to produce a signed contract! It just means that the apartment will be considered ACTIVE & ON THE MARKET until a fully executed contract of sale is reached.

    The rest is up to you!

    UrbanDigs Says - Bidding wars are a very desirable situation for a serious seller. However, you can mess one up if you don't know what you are doing! By being too demanding and fearsome in your demeanor you may scare away potential bidders. By being too lax, you may open yourself up for a confusing and troubling situation should one party fail to act accordingly. You must find the middle ground to encourage participation by the prospective buyers and at the same time lay down the rules that are in the sellers best interest and fair to the bidders. In the end, if you stick to this method you should do just fine!

    May 3, 2007

    How Brokers Sell Their Own Apartments

    Posted by Christine Toes on May 3, 2007 at 8.22 AM

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    I bought my Village studio with help from my grandfather in 2003. After living there for 2.5 years, I've been subletting it out for 1.5 years and making positive cash flow. I would have kept it forever but the building only allows subletting for 2 years out of every 5 years in one year lease periods. When it was time to sell, I didn't want to annoy my tenant with constant showings. She was planning to move out May 1, so I put my apartment on the market April 1 with the plan to sell it quickly so that it wouldn't sit vacant for too long. Here is some insight on how a broker sells her own home. I hope you find it helpful!

    1. Looked at comps in my building. The last studio in my line went for $365K, but it was a sponsor unit and didn't require board approval, which commands a higher price. Still, the market is a little hotter now than it was in the winter, and I'm on a higher floor, so I determined that my apartment was worth $369K. The highest price ever received for a studio in my building is $380K. That apartment was completely gut renovated with a new wall mounted plasma TV and surround sound and it had a much nicer view than my own, so I knew I wasn't getting $380K.

    2. Price the apartment $10K lower than it is worth, $359K, to get lots of people in the door, multiple offers, and a price above the asking price. TIP: If you want to sell your apartment quickly, price it 2 - 3% below market value and you will generate so much interest that you end up getting what you wanted in less time, or you will get more than you were hoping for. Every time an owner has allowed me to price an apartment below the market price, this has happened. When New Yorkers see that a dozen other people are interested in an apartment, they get competitive and they want the apartment more. Once someone has offered $359K for an apartment, it isn't much of a stretch for them to offer a few thousand dollars more to out bid someone else. If you have a 30 year fixed mortgage, it is only $30 a month to finance an extra $10K.

    3. I believe in "the system." A property gets the most exposure when it is on the market at a 6% commission. Even though I'm a broker and I could try to market my apartment without my company in order to "save" money, I know that the way to get top price for a property is to use a brokerage firm. 85% of apartment sales are co-brokered deals, not broker direct to buyer or owner direct to buyer. To bring in the most *qualified* buyers in the shortest period of time, I fill out an exclusive agreement with my company, Citi Habitats. It is worth paying the extra money - you get what you pay for.

    4. Luckily, my tenant attends Parsons School of Design and the apartment looks better than when I lived there. The paint colors and furniture are fantastic and appeal perfectly to someone looking for a Village studio. No need to paint or stage the apartment, SWEET! (If the apartment needed a coat of paint, or if her furniture was horrible, I would have waited for her to move out and then I would have staged the apartment in order to get top dollar).

    5. Line up cleaning service, virtual tour and professional photos (which my company pays for when we have an exclusive listing) for the week before the apartment will go on the market. That way the listing is perfect when it hits the market - great description, quality photos, and a virtual tour. Allows me time to prepare a postcard mailing to the building announcing the listing (Citi Habitats also pays for this).

    6. Call the mangement company to confirm the building open house policy. Building doesn't allow them. Damn. It is so much harder to sell an apartment when you have to show by appointment. I can only show 8 people an apartment in 15 minute intervals on a Sunday between 12 and 2pm by appointment, whereas I always get 20 - 35 people at my first open house for a new listing. Some people only search open houses, or they sit down with the NY Times in the morning and circle all of the open houses. Apartments not having an open house can easily be forgotten, simply because of the inconvenience of having to make an appointment when a buyer can just drop in to 10 other apartments. Confirmed the maintenance, assessments, sublet policy, financials, planned capital improvements, etc, with the managing agent.

    7. Spent two hours making sure every detail about the apartment and building were accurate in our database, which we share with our sister company, Corcoran. Wrote and re-wrote the description for the apartment so it would be perfect the first time. Otherwise, we have to change it in the database and show sheets and send a separate email to our sales department to get it fixed on our website. Better to get it right the first time.

    8. Got the photos within three days of the shoot, upload them to the website, database, and postcard mailing and send them to our marketing department so they can create show sheets. It takes them a few days to prepare the sheets and I want to have them for the first showing.

    9. Contact my mortgage guy to do a handout with different mortgage rates and what the monthly payments would be at various rates before and after tax deductions. It helps buyers to see in print exactly what they are going to be paying.

    10. Sign the exclusive agreement and send it to our sales department to put it into the database on a Monday. It takes about 48 hours for the listing to make it through the various database feeds and show up in the databases used by all 200+ member firms of the Real Estate Board of New York. By putting it in on Monday, everyone should see the listing on Wednesday, giving them plenty of time to work me into their Sunday schedules.

    11. Sent out postcard mailing.

    12. Drafted the NY Times ad (Citi Habitats pays for a NY Times ad every weekend). Deadline is Tuesday for the next Sunday paper.

    13. Decide to run a potentially controversial "open house by appointment only." Make it VERY clear in our database and on our website that all showings are by appointment. Give a list of everyone who has an appointment to my doorman as proof that I am showing by appointment and not through a true "open house" in case someone balks.

    14. Advertise the apartment on Craigslist to get some direct buyers. Especially with studio sales, buyers don't always have a broker yet. The target market for a studio in a building that doesn't allow pieds-a-terre is a 22 - 27 year-old first-time buyer. This generation uses Craigslist for everything. Additionally, our website ads feed into the NY Times on-line version on Thursdays, so to reach out to buyers early, Craigslist is a good place to start.

    15. Before posting the ad, I draft an email explaining the financial qualifications buyers needed in order to purchase in the building. My building requires 25% down, doesn't allow students or pieds a terre, and isn't kind to freelancers or others who don't have a steady, fixed income. They also require 2 years of mortgage and maintenance payments in reserve after the down payment. I determine that my buyer must have at least $145K in the bank and must make over $105K. This is a ton of money! There are a LOT of unqualified buyers on Craigslist, so an email spelling out the financial requirements eliminates my wasting my time showing the apartment to unqualified buyers. Despite my disclaimer email, there is a ton of interest in the apartment, and I quickly line up 6 appointments for Weds night and 6 for Thursday night in 15 minute intervals. I make sure to casually mention which appointments are already taken so buyers know how desirable the apartment is. About 50% of the total inquiries that I receive realize that they aren't financially qualified for the apartment after they receive my email. Such is the nature of Craigslist buyers.

    16. I advertise my apartment in my e-newsletter, which goes to over 2,300 friends, former co-workers, clients, and other agents. Basically, everyone who has emailed me since I started in this business goes in my e-mail list. They can remove themselves by the simple click of a button so I don't feel guilty for spamming.

    17. Brokers and buyers start calling and emailing, so I know the apartment has officially hit the market. So exciting! I schedule 10 appointments for Sunday between 12 - 2pm. I receive an very unhappy call from the management company regarding the "open house," even though it clearly states that ALL viewings are by appointment only. I take down my "open house by appointment" ad, and try not to sweat it too much because all of the appointments are already full. I am still annoyed because it is very clear that this isn't a "free for all" open house. I have a list of everyone coming, what time they are coming, and I am escorting them to and from the lobby, so there is no security concern of people wandering the building unaccompanied. Either someone on my board is so bored that they scour the NY Times weekly to catch brokers having open houses in our building, or the other real estate agent who lives in my building tattled on me. The managing agent chuckles when I mention said broker's name, essentially confirming that she was the narc. I decide she is just bitter and must have nothing better to do so I go back to what I love most and do best... Selling and marketing apartments!

    18. On the second Sunday, there is so much demand to see the apartment that I can't fit everyone in. I have a brief panic attack when I envision someone on the board seeing 5-10 people in the lobby backed up waiting for their appointments, but my problem solving skills kick in. I enlist two agents from my office so we can double up showings between 12 and 2pm. If they see people in 5-10 minute increments, I can get in at least 16 people.

    19. Showings are a tremendous success and offers are coming in. I schedule "best and final" offers. In 10 days on the market I have 4 offers at or above the asking price. Two offers are from buyers who aren't really qualified, one who doesn't have a social security number and one who the board might consider a pied a terre. I choose the most qualified buyer. His broker was also smart enough to offer an odd numbered price, beating out the other offer by $1,200. Three hours later, I have already accepted the offer and sent out the deal sheet to the other broker when another offer comes in that is even higher than the "highest and best." I struggle with what to do, but I can't help but consider this other offer - the broker swears she didn't realize the offers were due by noon, she thought it was just sometime that day. I go back to the original buyer and ask them if they will match the new offer. They do! YAY!

    The contracts are signed in under a week and the board package is being assembled as we speak. The buyer has better than a 25% debt to income ratio and has more than 2 years of mortgage and maintenance payments in reserve. He just started his job in September, so I ask the buyer's broker to let the buyer know that he may have to put maintenance in escrow since the building can be tough on new hires.

    Toes says... Pricing is KEY, but planning and strategy is also very, very important. All your ducks should be in a row before formally putting an apartment on the market. The way you time your marketing pieces and advertising is critical to a successful first week on the market. The serious buyers all come in the first two or three weeks on the market, so you want to sell the apartment in less than 30 days or buyers will wonder what is wrong with it and why it has been on the market for so long. An apartment should come onto the market with a bang, not a whimper!

    May 1, 2007

    Market Report: Transition To A Buyers Market

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on May 1, 2007 at 8.33 AM

    A: Its already starting to happen folks! Its May 1st and already I am noticing the beginning signs of a slowdown in Open House activity! After being on record since January 10th for stating that market activity has begun to surge, I am now going to go on record for stating that market activity is beginning to wane at public open houses. What we are seeing now is the transition in the Manhattan real estate marketplace from the sellers market of January - April to what will eventually be a buyers market as we get closer to the months of July & August. Sellers, its time to pass the torch back on to the buyers!

    Brokers, Buyers, & Sellers
    - After reading this post I would love to hear your comments on what I am seeing as this is really only the 2nd week I have noticed things starting to slow a bit! Are you noticing the same thing?

    Its important to note that media outlets differ from blogs because they usually lag in their reports to the readers after waiting for the event to happen and data reports to show a trend or surprising number. In the blog world such as UrbanDigs, I'm doing my best to tell you what I see right now!

    And what I see right now is slowing open house activity! I went to three open houses this past Sunday and the most traffic out of any of them had only 2 other people there at the same time we were. The others we were the only ones there for the 10 minutes or so we stayed. Compare that to what I said back on January 10th:

    After spending a few of the past 3 Sunday's with her going to Open Houses, I can tell you firsthand that most of them had very good traffic; by that I mean at least 4-5 different buyers were there at the same time we were. And that was ONLY 15 minutes or so of a 2 hour open house!

    I've also had talks with a few other agents holding OH's and they report to me a noticeable, 3x or so, pickup in activity and this is across a range of price points across the city! This is the kind of reporting that you can take advantage of if your in the hunt to buy in the very near future! I'm not making this stuff up. If I had to estimate, I would say my own business has picked up about 4-fold in the past 3 weeks alone; most of it in the past 7-10 days!

    As for my own business, I am noticing continued activity from brokers via appointments scheduled during the week. Most of my deals are co-broke and I usually rely on the Manhattan brokerage community heavlily to bring to the table the most qualified and highest bidder for my sales clients. Once this starts to slow I know I am in the dog days of summer.

    My last open house was two Sunday's ago and we actually had a decent showing with about 12 people stopping by; not uncommon for the first open house of a new listing. I'm certainly curious to see how my first open house for my other new listing goes this coming Sunday; I'll report on that one next week although first open houses are not the best gauge to notice any new trends.

    If I were to visually design for you how the NYC real estate market is seasonal, it would look something like this, for months JAN - SEPT. I left out OCT-DEC because those months seem to me to be very erratic; sometimes hot and sometimes cold. The months of JAN - SEPT have market characteristics to them that are easy to notice and eventually take advantage of:

    nyc-real-estate-buyers-sellers.jpg

    To prove this, recall Jonathan Miller's chart breaking down the AVG Price Per Square Foot per quarter by clicking here. I wrote about his findings in my post titled, "Data Shows NYC Real Estate is Seasonal", and stated:

    I talk often how buyer demand in the months of JAN - MARCH are normally much more active than any other 3-month consecutive range of the remaining calendar year. The months of MARCH - MAY are transition months where activity from buyer demand tends to move from very active --> to active --> to good ---> to slow. Once we get into the months of JUN - AUG, the market is typically significantly slower with only a few serious buyers coming to open houses and much fewer appointments during the week!
    UrbanDigs Says: During the month of May I expect brokers to start noticing a gradual slowdown in total buyer activity; mainly buyers working on their own. If brokers were getting between 20-30 buyers at an open house during the months of JAN - APRIL, I would think that number will shrink down closer to 10-15 towards the end of this month; a noticeable 50% reduction in traffic. As we head into the months of July & August, expect that traffic to shrink closer to 7-10 people per open house with the overpriced listings getting more like 5 people to show up! For all you sellers out there who are under a time pressure to sell, I discussed your 5-week warning last week with thoughts of what to do based on your strategy!

    April 26, 2007

    Five Week Warning: Get Your Home Sold!

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on April 26, 2007 at 8.25 AM

    A: This is my 5 week warning for all you sellers out there! As we head into the first week of May, its up to you to get your apartments sold! The choice is yours. For all those sellers out there that have legitimate reasons for selling and/or are under some sort of time pressure to sell, strongly consider a price reduction if you have been on the market for 6+ week with no offers! In short, it will be harder to procure as strong of a bid as the NYC housing market transitions from a sellers market back to a buyers market. Here is why.

    sell-apartment-manhattan-nyc-real-estate.jpg

    Things are still sugary for sellers of Manhattan real estate even as the rest of the nation deals with a continuing slowing housing market. In case you forgot what its like outside of New York City real estate, take a look at the latest two datasets regarding foreclosures and existing home sales that were released in the past few days.

    Foreclosures Surge on Mortgage Woes -

    Foreclosure filings surged during the first quarter of 2007, as home price increases slowed or even reversed and borrowers fell behind on payments once their adjustable rates began resetting at much higher levels.

    The number of filings climbed 27 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2006 and 35 percent from a year earlier, according to a report released Wednesday by RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosure properties.

    There were more than 430,000 foreclosure filings nationwide, one for every 264 households.

    Home Sales: Worst Drop in 18 Years -
    Home sales posted their sharpest drop in 18 years in March, a real estate group said Tuesday, as problems in the subprime mortgage sector pushed sales well below what economists had forecast.

    Sales of existing homes fell 8.4 percent to an annual rate of 6.12 million in March from February's 6.68 million rate, the National Association of Realtors said. It was the biggest one-month drop since January 1989. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast sales would fall to an annual rate of 6.45 million in March.

    David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said that bad weather earlier in the year may have cut down on sales that closed in March. "We may be seeing some losses as a result of the subprime fallout," he said in a statement. "It's too early to measure a significant impact from tighter lending standards, which should moderately dampen activity."

    The weakness in sales came despite the continued slide in home prices, which had been helping to lift sales in some previous reports. The median home price slipped 0.3 percent to $217,000 from a year earlier, the group said. It was the eighth straight month that measure has fallen and the ninth decline in the last 10 months.

    But this is Manhattan! We are the financial Capital of this country, enjoy a growing population, are 75% co-op whose stringent board standards keep speculative activity low, enjoy low rental vacancy rates with rising rents, and whose residents make plenty of dollars! So we are immune right? Wrong.

    While New York City real estate is its own animal and cannot be compared with many local markets experiencing plenty of housing pain right now, we are not immune. Our market is seasonal and in terms of real estate cycles, tend to lag in slowdowns and lead in recoveries. That makes our market a much stronger and safer investment. But we are heading towards the slow season and its up to you to believe me or not.

    As we head into summer months, expect traffic to slow significantly from levels seen between the months of JAN - APRIL. Slower traffic means less buyer demand which results in more control for the buyer.
    Here is my advice to sellers leaving you with the job of placing yourself (if you happen to be selling right now) into the proper category.

    Sellers w/ Time Pressure (Must Sell Now) - Don't mess around! If your apartment has been on the market for more than 6 weeks and you have had more than 30 buyers stop by with no offers, you need to lower your asking price! Its not rocket science. If your under a time pressure to sell and must sell now, don't dare risk delaying a price cut for another month or so. DO IT NOW and get your place into contract before June 1st!

    Read my post, "My Apartment Won't Sell...Help!" for a more detailed discussion on freshening up a stale listing.

    Sellers w/ No Time Pressure (Want To Sell, But In No Rush) - If you fit in this category you really need to ask yourself how much longer you can wait before you close. Keep in mind how long it takes to close under normal circumstances; about 1-2 months for a condo and 2-3 months for a co-op. Deduct the high end of that time line depending on what property type you have and come up with a month that you must be in contract by!

    For example, if you own a condo and MUST close by September 1st, than plan on having a signed contract by July 1st the latest! That leaves 2 months (July & August) to close by your deadline and you better keep on your agent to make sure the buyer abides by this and completes the purchase application and loan process in a timely manner.

    Since you have some time you can certainly hold off on a price cut, but keep in mind your chances of getting the highest bid will be over the next 5 weeks; before the summer months. Once June 1st hits, chances are that the drop off in demand will yield a less aggressive bidder.

    Sellers Testing The Market (Have A Great Product & Waiting For Your Price) - Well if you are testing the market than you know you are priced high and waiting to see if someone will fall in love with something about your apartment and pay up! If its been over 8+ weeks with no bids near your desired price, it is probably too far out of whack.

    If you got bids close to your desired price but just a little off, you may want to re-think how much you want to sell. Why are you even testing the market to begin with? Read my post titled, "To Sell or Not To Sell" and see if any of the reasons listed match your situation.

    In short, if you haven't gotten your price yet, chances are you wont get it during the summer months! So, consider either a price cut to the desired price that you want to sell at or remove the listing altogether from the market and put it back on the market next wall street bonus season.

    UrbanDigs Says - The NYC real estate market is still strong! With stocks soaring via strong corporate profits, the economy strong, jobs healthy, salary's high, rental vacancy low, rent prices trickling higher, and buyer demand holding you still have a chance to get a great price on your new home! Investigate your building for comparable sales and repeat the analysis with your broker to see if you are priced high, and if so, how high are you? In the end, the market dictates the purchase price of your home, not the agent, and its up to you to wake up from reality that your home may not be worth as much as you first thought. Question is, do you wake up to this reality today and do something about it while its still a sellers market? Or do you delay, and realize in 6 weeks when it most likely will transition back to a buyers market?

    Remember, an agent being honest with you and passing on advice based on past experience selling in the Manhattan marketplace is an agent doing his best to get his/her client the highest price possible! Don't get mad at your agent if they recommend a price cut to you after weeks on the market; in the end, their job is to procure a qualified buyer at or slightly above market value if possible. Asking your agent to fetch you $100,000 more than the last comparable sale in your building is like asking your stock broker to buy a stock today significantly below what it currently trades at! If the stock broker says "sure, no problem", then they are lying to you!

    April 12, 2007

    Data Shows NYC Real Estate is Seasonal

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on April 12, 2007 at 11.49 AM

    A: I don't link out to superstar appraiser Jonathan Miller's blog, Matrix, enough. Maybe its because he gets so much press as is, that whats a little more going to offer him? Nah, thats not it. Fact is, Jonathan puts so much time into forwarding to readers what he sees in his business (trends, data, charts) based on so many different datasets that he deserves every bit of press he gets! I certainly appreciate the effort! His latest chart shows how average price per square foot in Manhattan real estate sales differs based on time of the year (quarterly) and adjusted for inflation. It shows what I have been saying here on UrbanDigs since the beginning, that NYC real estate is seasonal!

    Manhattan Co-op/Condo Average Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
    (1989-2007) via Curbed.

    nyc-real-estate-seasonal.jpg

    What we see here is simple:

    Blue & Pink Lines
    (represent months JAN - JUNE) --> generally higher percentage change from previous quarter

    Green & Orange Lines (represent months JULY - DECEMBER) --> generally lower percentage change from previous quarter

    In other words: NYC REAL ESTATE IS SEASONAL!

    For the most part, the months of JAN - JUN show a higher average price per square foot for both co-ops and condos in Manhattan than the months of JULY - DEC do! This is not surprising! I talk often how buyer demand in the months of JAN - MARCH are normally much more active than any other 3-month consecutive range of the remaining calendar year. The months of MARCH - MAY are transition months where activity from buyer demand tends to move from very active --> to active --> to good ---> to slow. Once we get into the months of JUN - AUG, the market is typically significantly slower with only a few serious buyers coming to open houses and much fewer appointments during the week!

    My advice would remain the same as I said in the past:

    For Sellers: Try to get a contract signed BEFORE June! Its not rocket science when declaring that sellers get the most money at resale when there is the most activity on the property! As activity slows, so does the chance of getting top dollar! For those sellers that MUST sell and are not simply testing the market, try to get that deal done before the summer months because if you don't you will have a much harder time matching an offer that may have been presented only a few months earlier!

    For Buyers: If you are not forced by a time pressure, try to wait out the market a bit. If you find a place that blows you away and the price is right then by all means go for it! But if you are not in a rush, time is on your side, are looking to build your cash reserves, or just haven't found your dream home yet, there is one thing I can assure you: you should gain more control over negotiating during the summer months at the expense of less inventory to choose from!

    March 22, 2007

    Sell-Side Marketing Launches

    Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on March 22, 2007 at 11.11 AM

    A: Its been 20 months since I started blogging here on UrbanDigs, and its been one hell of ride. I have to say, that I learned a lot over this time from all the feedback, live chat questions, and comments that you guys left to help increase my knowledge of New York City real estate. I hope that you found the posts helpful during the buying or selling process, and that you made a little bit more money because of it. That is what it is all about; making more $$$! So, after a year of planning and fine-tuning, I decided to introduce my 3 step approach and service for sellers of Manhattan real estate.

    I have to admit, I was VERY worried about introducing this service onto the blog; for fear of ruining the open atmosphere and ultimate goal of this site which still remains, 'to discuss how we all may be able to better profit from our New York city real estate transactions'. I had to come up with some way to continue my daily postings on the site and keep the discussions going, continue to grow my own business through savvy investment strategies, and extend that philosophy of transacting real estate without any application loss so that you can work with me.

    So after months of planning I bring to you strategic marketing services focused on providing maximum exposure through creative and standard marketing techniques to ensure maximum profit at resale! On this page you will find my last three customer testimonials describing their experience with me during the selling process of their property.

    sell-manhattan-real-estate-nyc.jpg

    Sell-Side Marketing

    STEP 1: Property Valuation / Listing Agreement - A free no-obligation property valuation for those ready to sell their Manhattan real estate. Paul & I will meet with you to evaluate the open market value of your property and provide you with past sales and current competition that is so vital to your specific selling strategy. We will also consult with you on how to get your property in the best condition possible at the lowest cost to you to maximize resale potential.

    STEP 2: Strategic Marketing Services - Citi-Habitats will hire a professional photographer to shoot your property in the best possible light. A virtual tour will also be done to maximize the details of your property to web seekers. We will run a Sunday NY Times print ad every week and hold open houses until a contract is fully executed. Additional marketing strategy will be discussed when I meet with you. The property listing will be distributed to the entire Manhattan brokerage community without any time delay to ensure maximum exposure. In addition, your property will be advertised on:

  • NY Times Online

  • NYPost.com

  • Streeteasy.com

  • International Herald Tribune

  • Citi-Habitats.com
  • STEP 3: Buyer Pre-Qualification / Board Package - All bids received will be forwarded to you for review until a contract is fully executed - without exception! Before a bid is submitted, I will make sure the prospective buyer provides a thorough financial snapshot and pre-approval letter so we can pre-qualify based on your building's specific board policies & requirements. Any signs of weakness that pose a potential risk to board approval will be pointed out to you before entering the negotiating process. We will oversee completion of the board package to be sure that all items requested are delivered in a timely manner.

    So, there it is! I will continue to focus on writing content and the live chat for UrbanDigs.com so that you are always given street level information as it happens in the world of Manhattan real estate!

    In meantime, if you or someone you know is thinking of selling their home and would like me to meet with you to discuss property valuation, marketing strategy, the selling process, tips for preparing your property for maximum showing effectiveness, weekly print advertising, etc..please just tell them to click on the SELL-SIDE MARKETING link on the right side of ALL UrbanDigs.com p