In The News Archives

January 8, 2008

Inman Real Estate Conference 2008

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on January 8, 2008 at 3.38 PM

bull-vs-bear-inman.jpg A: Inman Real Estate Connect conference is back in New York City starting tomorrow. The event takes place January 9th-11th at Marriott Marquis in Times Square. I will be on a BULL vs BEAR economics panel with some of the great scholars/minds out there. I hope you can register and make it to the conference and this panel.

Here is the info.

Wednesday, January 9, 3:30 p.m. – 4:15 p.m.
The Housing Debate: Bull vs. Bear
Where is the housing market headed? More doom? Stability? Or modest recovery? Join this lively debate between housing bulls and bears who present differing views of housing's future.

Sponsored by: NY Times Real Estate

Moderator: Andrew Ross Sorkin, Assistant Editor, Business & Finance, Chief Mergers and Acquisitions Reporter, The New York Times

Panelists:
Dottie Herman, President & CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman
Barry Ritholtz, Chief Market Strategist, Ritholtz Research & CEO; Director of Equity Research, Fusion IQ
Noah Rosenblatt, Founder & Publisher of UrbanDigs.com / Vice President, Halstead Property
Professor Nouriel Roubini, Co-Founder & Chairman of RGE Monitor; Professor of Economics, New York University’s Stern School of Business

It should be a very entertaining and educating discussion at a time when things are starting to get VERY interesting to say the least! I hope it gets a bit heated at times. Hope to see you all there and don't forget to register below in advance if you plan to stop by!

Also, Doug Heddings of TrueGotham will be there speaking on a panel titled, "Beyond The Written Word: Video Blogging & Podcasting".

October 9, 2007

Inman News Names UrbanDigs...

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on October 9, 2007 at 9.39 AM

A: Lovin it! Inman News last week named their list of 25 of the most influential bloggers and I'm very honored to have made the list! Inman has a great real estate conference called Connect that is held twice a year in San Francisco and New York City. I will be speaking at this year's conference with Barry Ritholtz, of the Big Picture, Professor Nouriel Roubin, of RGE Monitor, and hopefully one or two more highly influential economists and bloggers. I can't tell you how ecstatic I am for this panel that I am proud to say helped co-ordinate! The Connect NYC conference will be held JAN 9 - 11th, 2008 at Marriot Marquis at Times Square. You can register here early!

First, the honor of being named in the Top 25 Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers:

BROKER & AGENT BLOGS

Teresa Boardman - ST PAUL REAL ESTATE BLOG
Ardell Della Loggia - SEARCHING SEATTLE BLOG
Marlow Harris - 360 DIGEST
Doug Heddings - TRUE GOTHAM
Noah Rosenblatt - URBANDIGS

And some of the other notables that I have met in the past and who do great work with their blogs!

Dustin Luther - RAIN CITY GUIDE
Greg Swann - BLOODHOUND BLOG
Todd Carpenter - LENDERAMA
CR & Tanta - CALCULATED RISK
Jonathan Miller - MATRIX
Kevin Boer - 3OCEANS REAL ESTATE
Joel Burlesom - FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE MARKETING
Pat Kitano - TRANSPARENT REAL ESTATE
Jim Cronin - REAL ESTATE TOMATO
Joe Ballgame & Rudy Love - SELLSIUS
Jonathan Butler - BROWNSTONER
Adam Koval - SOCKETSITE
David Gibbons - ZILLOW BLOG
Glen Kelman - REDFIN
Peter Coy - BUSINESSWEEK BLOG
Pat Killelea - REALTY PARSER
Keith - HOUSING PANIC
John Cook - VENTURE BLOG

Second, I am honored to have worked with the man, Brad Inman & Michelle over at Inman News, for the past few months trying to add a great element to the Real Estate Connect conferences. I thought, wouldn't it be great to bring some of the best minds together to try and get a debate going covering the macro economic topics that are powering the national real estate marketplace; both bull vs bear sides! I'm glad to say that it looks like we have Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture & Professor Nouriel Roubini + yours truly on the panel so far! It should be both a very educating and entertaining hour with this talent on the stage!

Hope you guys can make it to Real Estate Connect NYC in early January!

September 21, 2007

Media Appearance: Ch 4 Sunday 8:30AM

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on September 21, 2007 at 1.56 PM

A: I know it's early, but see if you can try to catch my media appearance on Channel 4's Open House NY segment this Sunday morning at 8:30AM. My first TV appearance, sweeeeeet!

Among the topics I will offer thoughts on include:

* Fundamentals Sustaining Manhattan Real Estate Prices
* Which Type of Buyer Should Be Buying Now
* Whether Selling Now or Waiting 6 Months Is The Better Play
* Why Inventory is the Key Factor To Watch For Future Price Movements
* Whether New Dev Inventory Poses A Risk For Inventory
* The Strong Studio Market
* The Protection of Co-ops From Subprime

Here is the uncut interview:

That is basically the tone of the interview. Not sure exactly when the interview will be aired on television this Sunday, but hopefully most of my answers will make the cut!

September 17, 2007

UrbanDigs in NY Mag

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on September 17, 2007 at 1.26 PM

A: Got some great press today and wanted to share the articles with you in NY Mag. There were two, but for this post I'll focus on the story about best & worst case scenario's hitting Manhattan real estate over the next few years.

Neigborhood Watch: How Vulnerable Are You? A Risk Analysis.

EAST VILLAGE & LOWER EAST SIDE: These neighborhoods are no longer "emerging" - they have emerged, and we are not going back to dodging crack dealers on Avenue A. That said, a big market swing could certainly hit here, because these areas are still most attractive to the young, and young buyers can be fearless.

"They take more chances and they're more aggressive, the kind of people who put more of their assets into living where they want to live," says Citi Habitats agent Noah Rosenblatt, a former Wall Street trader who now blogs about the market on Urbandigs .com. "They haven't seen a major crash and don't know that they may get salary restrictions or that their bonuses may not go up as much. No good time lasts forever"
Real Estate Report 2007

A look into what the best case and worst case scenarios might be from the minds of Professor Ed Glaeser, Brad Inman, Professor Nouriel Roubini, Tim Harford, Professor Tyler Cowen, and yours truly! I am honored to be considered in the same group as these guys, let alone have the opportunity to speak my opinion on such an exciting topic!

The article is a great read and incorporates the thoughts of all the above mentioned names. It doesn't give specific predictions by each person though, so for those that are interested in what I thought and submitted, here are some excerpts copied exactly from what I handed in:

WORST CASE SCENARIO

2008 - Consumer spending & Labor market will weaken as the economy enters a recession towards years end and into early 2008. Fed cuts rates to cushion the blow but that won't help lending rates that much as the re-pricing of risk and drying up of secondary mortgage markets result in a disconnect between falling bond yields and lending rates. Re-pricing of risk is evident in the rising LIBOR rate to highest level in 8 ½ years, even as bond yields fall, which results in serious pain for debtors; especially for those with resetting adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) and with credit debt tied to this rate. This becomes third leg in nationwide housing downturn and starts to hit Manhattan at a lag. Tightening of lending underwriting standards and rising rates on Jumbo loans hit affordability & buyer psychology which reduces size of the qualified buyer pool. Buy side demand weakens.

Correction: 3-5% as fundamental shift takes time to work through; pockets of distress experience 5-7% downside risk

2009 - Insolvency crisis may reveal itself as consumer/corporate debt can't be paid off. Democrats take over and alter tax friendly laws effecting wall street. Any further correction in stocks as a result will contribute to a deeper negative wealth effect and deteriorating psychology amongst buyers. Again, bonuses are hit and jobs as well. Labor market woes reduce buyer pool further. Credit crunch continues to limit availability of leveraging and affordability. Rental prices come down at a lag to stock declines.

Correction: 4-6%; correction tends to be faster once fundamentals reverse course and favor downside.

2010 - Not worried about new mayor. Changes already in place for 421A tax abatement for developers so any further change is likely to reverse these changes to re-instate tax friendly programs to encourage development. After effects to US economy from the 2007-2008 liquidity/credit squeeze still being felt in wall street and main street. Consumer psychology still effected as conservatism sets in. Unless inventory trends completely reverse course, any correction into 2010 is likely to begin triggering demand on buy side from those waiting on the sidelines; especially from longer term investors and those that survived the downturn in the economy unscathed.

Correction: 1-2% as buying gets more attractive to those waiting for downturn.

BEST CASE SCENARIO

2008 - Liquidity squeeze proves to be short lived. The bad bets were weeded out, corporations and hedge funds book their bad assets to market and take tax friendly loss, restructuring takes place and transparency returns to free markets. Global growth continues and is evident by lagging inflation and high commodity prices; necessary side effects of strong growth. Fed maintains rates as there is no need to pump liquidity into financial system to help cushion blow to US economy. Wall Street cheers the return of certainty with continuing gains. Wealth effect in place and little ultimate effect on jobs, bonuses, and salaries here in NYC. As a result, fundamentals powering Manhattan real estate for past 3-4 years remain intact. Inventory stays tight as demand never wanes.

Appreciation: 3-4%

2009 - Insolvency crisis proves to be under control; assistance for debtors from gov't or outside agency? Temporary higher rates (2007-2008) for debtors prove to be absorbed by strong jobs market and US economy. Lending rates start to return to normal association with bond market and specifically 10YR yields; predictability returns and volatility is low again. Lenders gain confidence in housing's future nationwide and as a result, tighter lending standards that have been in place for past year and half are loosened a bit; but not anywhere near as loose as they used to be. Manhattan remains a desirable place to live and the trend of living closer to workplace strengthens further. Inventory has no chance to reverse course from any economic slowdown, rental inventory remains tight and expensive, and buyers still compete for well priced properties. Should Dems win presidency, they maintain current tax laws for capital gains/carried interest and wall street applauds with continued gains and interest from hedge funds.

Appreciation: 3-4%

2010 - Global growth experiences NO slowdown after years of worry. With globalization comes a more consistent and resilient US economy; and therefore stock market. Bull run is sustainable, but with pockets of healthy 2-3 month corrections here and there. Jobs, bonuses, salaries here in NYC (specifically in financial sector) remain intact continuing to power the sustainable boom in local housing. Fed maintains fed funds rate in the 5-6% range even as global growth, inflation, and high commodity prices still exist. As long as we are below 6% in fed funds target, I don't see it being restrictive to future economic growth potential.

Appreciation: 3-5%

You can read the full article here and compare what I said with what the group consensus was.

June 15, 2007

UrbanDigs on Inman TV

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on June 15, 2007 at 4.07 PM

A: Brad Inman, founder of Inman News, has a long history of success. I am lucky enough to have met Brad a few times in the past few months and take part in his new InmanTV show which includes interviews with great bloggers such as Jonathan Miller of the Matrix, Rudy & Joe of Sellsius, Lockhart Steel of Curbed, Jonathan Butler of Brownstoner, Pat Kitano of Transparent RE, Matt Heaton & Jonathan Washburn of Active Rain, etc.. This interview was taped about 3 weeks ago so try to put yourself back into time & place when listening to my responses, although they haven't changed much. Enjoy!

April 27, 2007

UrbanDigs in NY Post

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on April 27, 2007 at 9.28 AM

A: Its PR week for me! I was interviewed for this story about 3-4 weeks ago by Adam Bonislawski who wanted to write an educational post on new development tax abatements after reading on UrbanDigs and other sites that it might not prove to be the best investment as monthly expenses rise over time. Needless to say, he wrote a fantastic article yesterday in the NY Post. Here it is in case you missed it!

ny-post-urbandigs.jpg


NY Post - The Great Abate

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and there is more...here are some cut and paste's directly from the article:

But buyers do need to be aware of how the tax break's expiration would affect their investment, Rosenblatt stresses. "On the open market, a property's value is directly related to the total monthly expenses that are carried with the property," he says. "I don't think developers are factoring in to their pricing what the cost of maintenance is going to be 10 years down the line."

And if developers aren't, perhaps buyers should be. Rosenblatt tells the story of going with a client recently to look at a $3 million apartment with a 421a abatement.

"The real estate taxes for the property right now were about $150 a month," he recalls. "Upon expiration, they were going to be around $2,300 a month. So the total carrying costs of the apartment were around $2,000 right now.

Then I asked the marketing people what the mature taxes would be on the property. When they told us, my client jumped up and said, 'Are you kidding me?' In 10 years time, it's going to cost her over $4,000 a month to maintain. So just how much upside does this apartment have?"

For the complete article, click here.

April 26, 2007

TimeOut NY Publishes UrbanDigs

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on April 26, 2007 at 6.23 PM

A: Props to Christine Toes on the first of five stories on new developments to be published on TimeOut NY over the next 5 days! Christine writes for UrbanDigs and tries to cover new developments as well as experiences in the field that she feels worthy of passing on to you guys! She is a valued member of the team here and a great agent to boot! Here is an excerpt from todays article.

time-out-ny.jpg

Insider's Look: Platinum

Each day this week, the savvy writers at real estate blog Urbandigs analyze one of the city’s new condo developments

Quick tip: The building's design fundamentals are strong and apartments are going quickly (over 25 percent sold in under 3 weeks). Price per square foot increases with each new release of units - buy early to earn the best deal.

For the full story, please visit the article at TimeOut NY's website!

March 2, 2007

UrbanDigs in NY Magazine

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on March 2, 2007 at 4.20 PM

A: Great to be in such a popular publication! Check out the article titled, "When Brokers Blog", that discusses what happens when brokers blog, and points out that the real purpose of blogging is to expand ones business and generate leads! Hmmmmm, now why didn't I think of that!

UrbanDigs in NYMag

My Contribution:

When Citi-Habitats agent Noah Rosenblatt started blogging about the real-estate market twenty months ago, his colleagues couldn’t fathom why he spent hours every day on his site, UrbanDigs.com. “They couldn’t believe it,” he remembers. They do now: At a real-estate seminar at the Marriott Marquis in January, a standing-room-only crowd of agents skipped seminars on mortgages and foreclosures to swarm a seminar on blogging, inundating Rosenblatt with questions. Sensing opportunity, they seemed eager to get online, and fast.

Go Digs!

October 17, 2006

UrbanDigs in Daily News

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on October 17, 2006 at 10.01 AM

A: Sorry for the lack of posts recently as commuting to NYC takes all my free time away (should be taking a Nov 1st lease, but won't be able to move in until Nov 10th or so). I'll try to get a few up there today, as I have some things I would like to discuss and hear your feedback on. In meantime, check out the article in yesterday's Daily News featuring my client, Vincent Ngai, who I met through the LIVE CHAT on UrbanDigs!

WHO IS VINCENT NGAI: One of my clients that I met through the LIVE CHAT feature on UrbanDigs

WHAT MADE HIM DIFFERENT: His dedication to finding a great deal on the east side helped him learn product knowledge and jump on a deal when one presented itself

HOW HE HANDLED THE REAL ESTATE BUYING PROCESS: Perfectly. He used every resource at his disposal, including my assistance with data that was hard to find online, to make sure he was bidding the right price for the right property. In the end, we devised a bidding strategy that allowed us to get the apartment he wanted for the price he hoped for!

dn-client.jpg

And the little tidbit promoting UrbanDigs...

daily-news-urbandigs.jpg

The moral of this story is that buyers are presented with a great deal of information on the web that can assist in the real estate buying process. However, I wouldn't discount the value of using a qualified real estate agent in addition to your own work to evaluate, negotiate, and guide you through the purchase; remember that if you buy on your own the seller broker will be in charge of all the above mentioned items and that the seller broker WORKS FOR the SELLER and NOT YOU! You can read more on Buyer Brokers in a past post I wrote.

July 27, 2006

UrbanDigs WINS Inman Award..!!

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on July 27, 2006 at 8.47 AM

A: GO DIGS!!!! TAKE IT DOWN! Although I couldn't attend the Inman conference I got a fantastic email at 10:13PM last night telling me that UrbanDigs WON the 'Most Innovative Real Estate Blog' Award!! Here is the article at Inman.com.

Innovator_finalist.jpg

An excerpt:

Inman News for the first time this year gave an award for the Most Innovative Real Estate Blog, adding a new category. The winner of this first-time award was Urban Digs, published by New York City real estate agent Noah Rosenblatt, who launched the blog last September. In addition to entries about real estate situations and questions, Rosenblatt offers live chat sessions with site visitors every weekday.
And a quote from Bradly Inman:
"In today's economy, innovation determines success," said Bradley Inman, founder and publisher of Inman News. "In the view of myself and my editorial board, UrbanDigs.com has earned this award by finding new ways to succeed."

Thank you all for making this site work and I promise you to give my best to bring you tips to PROFIT (working on misspelling in main image) from NYC real estate by telling it 'like it is'! I guess the LIVE CHAT feature is here to stay as the 4 months I have been doing it so far has been a great success both for me (and the great people I met) and hopefully for those I was able to assist. Thanks again!!

May 31, 2006

UrbanDigs in Daily News

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on May 31, 2006 at 5.22 PM

daily-news-story.jpg

A: In case you missed it, UrbanDigs was mentioned in this past Sunday's DailyNews for a story about break-ups and NYC real estate market by Lucy Maher.

UrbanDigs mentioned in "Moving on...but not out" in Sunday's DailyNews. Here is the story:

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May 7, 2006

UrbanDigs in Manhattan Living Magazine

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on May 7, 2006 at 2.59 PM

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A: I recalled doing the interview about a month ago but completely forgot about it and which publication it was going to be used for. Funniest part is my wife is reading the magazine when she stumbles upon an article titled, "Beating The Board", which discusses a bill before city council that would require a co-op board to disclose why it turned down a prospective buyer. As she gets my attention to read me the article out loud she quotes something that sounds very familiar to me! It didnt take long before she mentions the source of the tips: Yours Truly!

Passing it on to you guys. Here are the tips as mentioned in the article to help AVOID REJECTION from a co-op board:

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February 24, 2006

UrbanDigs in METRO..!

Posted by Noah Rosenblatt on February 24, 2006 at 11.05 AM

A: If you can, pick up a copy of the METRO today and go to the Blogarithms section (Page 8) written by Paul Berger. UrbanDigs is featured in this week's column!

Blogarithms is a weekly column written by Paul Berger to bring attention to the best and brightest New York City weblogs that you probably didn't hear of yet!

nyc real estate

For those of you who read my blog, you know that I do my research and try my best to educate New Yorkers on the overall state of the housing market in Manhattan by writing about tips for buyers, tips for sellers, and a macro view on where interest rates are most likely headed. We have a weekly Mortgage Report on Tuesday's from Steven Maasbach, info from Sales Manager Brian Legum on OH Activity, and some tips for sellers from my colleague Brady Titcomb.

I hope you both enjoy and learn from the posts written in this blog and don't be shy to tell a friend or two who might be interested in buying or selling a property in New York City! Maybe they can find something here to apply to their own needs! Your comments are always appreciated and don't hesitate to SUBMIT A TIP if you have your story to tell! Thanks!

~ Paul Berger's Blog