Will Manhattan's Real "Supply" Please Stand Up

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Jun 30th, 2014 02:47 PM

A: Boy oh boy oh boy. Its been a crazy month for anyone analyzing Manhattan residential real estate inventory stats due to the RLS outage that occurred end of May. You may see some vast differences amongst the major firms out there on statistics such as supply, contract activity/deal volume, and days on market (if DOM is pending sales based and not sales based). Most brokers can relate to this issue via receiving emails/calls for listings that have sold, are no longer active, or that have been in contract for months. The reason for that lies in this data issue that I have been discussing and dealing with. The live UD chart system is still exposed to this but our new dev site seems to have the issue under control now. Id like to share those charts so you see where we think supply is prior to the Q2 reports coming out.

Here is a snapshot of a Manhattan Supply Chart Since 2008 from our dev site:

new_supply_1.jpg

Here is a snapshot of a Manhattan Supply Chart 1YR:

new_supply_2.jpg

I really dont know what to expect when the big firms release #s in the coming days but I do know that many brokers that I have spoken to from different firms are reporting calls for old listings. That tells me their system was exposed to this issue. It comes down to how deep each firm digs into the issue and how they clean it out without ruining the good data. I feel its better to openly discuss this issue so that there are no false misinterpretations out there on trends.

NO, THERE WAS NOT A SURGE IN SUPPLY OVER THE LAST MONTH!

When you break it down, the market did what it usually does this time of year --> slow down a bit!

We show Supply trends continuing down, Pending sales trends cooling down, and Days on Market trends slightly rising but still at very low levels.

My anecdotal opinion of the market
: Inventory is still very tight, buy side competition continues albeit at a slightly less frenzy pace from a month or two ago, and leverage continues to strongly favor sell side for quality well priced property. Price action may have dipped slightly in the SE Condo Index, but in my opinion it has not translated to any noticeable discounts for deals I see happening (or not happening) in the field.

Ill end this discussion by referencing one more chart from our site that is in beta (#s may chg slightly when we officially push site live) -- MANHATTAN DAYS ON MARKET SINCE 2008 which really shows you just how strong this market has got over the years and continues to be:

dom_new_3.jpg


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