Will Manhattan's Real "Supply" Please Stand Up

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Jun 30th, 2014 02:47 PM

A: Boy oh boy oh boy. Its been a crazy month for anyone analyzing Manhattan residential real estate inventory stats due to the RLS outage that occurred end of May. You may see some vast differences amongst the major firms out there on statistics such as supply, contract activity/deal volume, and days on market (if DOM is pending sales based and not sales based). Most brokers can relate to this issue via receiving emails/calls for listings that have sold, are no longer active, or that have been in contract for months. The reason for that lies in this data issue that I have been discussing and dealing with. The live UD chart system is still exposed to this but our new dev site seems to have the issue under control now. Id like to share those charts so you see where we think supply is prior to the Q2 reports coming out.

Here is a snapshot of a Manhattan Supply Chart Since 2008 from our dev site:

new_supply_1.jpg

Here is a snapshot of a Manhattan Supply Chart 1YR:

new_supply_2.jpg

I really dont know what to expect when the big firms release #s in the coming days but I do know that many brokers that I have spoken to from different firms are reporting calls for old listings. That tells me their system was exposed to this issue. It comes down to how deep each firm digs into the issue and how they clean it out without ruining the good data. I feel its better to openly discuss this issue so that there are no false misinterpretations out there on trends.

NO, THERE WAS NOT A SURGE IN SUPPLY OVER THE LAST MONTH!

When you break it down, the market did what it usually does this time of year --> slow down a bit!

We show Supply trends continuing down, Pending sales trends cooling down, and Days on Market trends slightly rising but still at very low levels.

My anecdotal opinion of the market
: Inventory is still very tight, buy side competition continues albeit at a slightly less frenzy pace from a month or two ago, and leverage continues to strongly favor sell side for quality well priced property. Price action may have dipped slightly in the SE Condo Index, but in my opinion it has not translated to any noticeable discounts for deals I see happening (or not happening) in the field.

Ill end this discussion by referencing one more chart from our site that is in beta (#s may chg slightly when we officially push site live) -- MANHATTAN DAYS ON MARKET SINCE 2008 which really shows you just how strong this market has got over the years and continues to be:

dom_new_3.jpg


Phantom Surge in Supply from Data Feed Issue

Posted by urbandigs

Thu Jun 12th, 2014 07:21 AM

A: We are approaching the end of Q2 and I am getting many emails and calls about the recent surge in supply on the UrbanDigs Manhattan data system. I wrote about what happened a week ago when our data feed went down for 9 days at the end of May, but let me explain the phantom surge again and show you where I think we are in terms of Manhattan supply trends.

Here is a chart showing Manhattan Supply over the past 1YR:

phantom_supply_surge.jpg

The supply surge is clear in the past two weeks. The reason is because when our data feed got back online we received bulk file updates that contained many duplicate and old new listings with errors on the 'list date' field. That caused our system to add these as new supply when in fact they are not.

The UD system was engineered to "self-correct" for these types of data issues that tend to happen from time to time. The result is confusing as it is happening, like now, as it leads us to believe there was a huge spike in new supply. But over the course of 2-4 weeks the UD system will gradually remove all poisonous listings from our inventory charts -- we are starting to see this now as the big spike is starting to reverse course and come down.

To understand how our system works think of the cycle of a listing in Manhattan as a flow: from new listing --> to off mkt --> to back on mkt --> to in contract (pending) --> to sold/closed --> repeat cycle.

At all times, supply is a function of the pool of listings in Manhattan that are actively updated by the exclusive broker and the following:

-- PLUS, all new listings to hit the market today
-- MINUS, all active listings to enter contract (pending) today
-- MINUS, all active listings that are taken off the market
-- MINUS, all active listings that become stale due to lack of broker status updates
-- MINUS, all active listings that sold/closed via acris without the broker changing status to contract signed.

Add that all up and you have a dynamic system like the UD one to measure Manhattan supply. When our Rebny Listing Service feed (RLS) goes down, that cycle and flow is disrupted. When the feed comes back, issues like this can occur.

As I wrote about last week the answer is to WAIT AND LET THE UD SYSTEM SELF CORRECT TO THE RIGHT LEVEL -- IT IS STARTING TO WEED OUT THE BAD STUFF NOW.

But it still needs time so we need to wait a few more weeks and then we will go back and try to remove the bad stuff manually and smooth out the chart.

I hope this helps to explain what is going on, why our system is doing what it is, and what we plan to do to resolve this. My apologies for the inconvenience and temporary distortion in Manhattan supply trends.


Bubbalicious?

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Jun 10th, 2014 09:36 AM

A: I'm getting asked by so many buyers, readers, and colleagues if I think Manhattan real estate is in a bubble. Short answer: it's hard to be a bubble when mass lending is not occurring for the asset class and there is no major credit element at work. Instead, the buyer pool in general has grown substantially on the backs of 5+ year fed induced reflation surge that took equity markets up over 185%! With volatility non-existent and yields nowhere to be found, both consumers & investors are finding a haven in Manhattan real estate. Our new listings data shows that for years we have seen "less stuff" come onto the market, so the tight inventory we are experiencing today is a big piece of the foundation that has been causing this market do what it has been doing lately. Lets discuss.

I want to start out this discussion with some perspective. Take a look at this chart below that shows you the S&P 500 Since 1990 and take notice of the numbered items in the chart and the notes below:

sp500c.jpg

First, let me say, wow. Definitely puts into perspective the central bank induced thrill ride over the past 15 years or so.

1. The dot com bubble & bust - The Greenspan era and his famous "irrational exuberence" speech. When the dot coms busted and the Nasdaq marketplace crashed, bringing everything else with it, Greenspan took the Fed Funds rate to 1% to stimulate an economic recovery.

2. The housing bubble & bust - Greenspan, along with wall street, deregulation and politicians, helped to create the housing bubble with their policies. Greenspan was at the helm until 2006, when Ben Bernanke took his place as the new fed chair. By that time the damage was in the system for years already and the wall street machine was about to break, causing the beginning phase of the largest credit crisis (UD writings here from 2007-2009) since the Great Depression.

3. ---The Next Bubble??--- This story remains unwritten at the moment. The carry trade continues as the EU is the latest to extend extremely accomodative policies to stimulate inflation. The result is a continuation of the carry trade that started with US central bank policies in 2008 to present.

4. So, How Much is S&P500 Up Since 2009 Bottom? - The answer is approximately 185%! Let me repeat that, since the height of fear in March of 2009 (which was the bottom of the Manhattan market as well), the S&P500 has risen 185% to get to where we are today. The Nasdaq is up over 210% from its March '09 lows. Translate that to Manhattan real estate over the last 4+ years.

The StreetEasy Index puts the bottom of the Manhattan market in early 2010 - which is expected with a sales based, lagging price action index. For the real time bottom for the Manhattan market we need to look at deal volume/contract activity trends. This data will show that those who signed a contract in Jan/Feb/March of 2009 are the ones to get the bottom; when deal volume was at its lowest & fear levels at their highest.

Which begs the question on all our minds -- How much has Manhattan risen since the bottom and where are we now?

The answer is not +185% like equities have seen. Rather, the avg price action trend is probably closer to this:

Since the March lows in 2009 -- prob up somewhere between 40%-50%
Since June 2010 (4yrs ago) -- prob up somewhere between 30%-35%
Since June 2011 (3yrs ago) -- prob up somewhere between 27%-30%
Since June 2012 (2yrs ago) -- prob up somewhere between 20%-25%
Since June 2013 (1yr ago) -- prob up somewhere between 12%-15%

**Always remember that Manhattan is highly segmented and each building is it's own little marketplace. When pricing a property its always best to stay in-building and focus on relative comps trends over time.

This is NOT really bubble territory considering the move in equities over the same periods of time - especially since the '09 lows!

Bottom line --> As long as volatility is non-existent, fear nowhere to be found, and equity/bond markets reacting accordingly to very accomodative central bank policies, the Manhattan up-trend will continue. I don't think it's a bubble because the masses are not involved and there is no explosion in new credit and new lending facilities/options -- those elements are critical when defining a bubble. Manhattan is tied to wall street right now and until some external force disrupts The Great Reflation, there will be little reasons for buyers to have fear. Until there is a reason for buyers to pause out of concern for something, Manhattan will likely continue to track annual gains seen in equity markets. That's the key point. In the end it's all about the buyers and their bids.

I hope the stock chart above helps to put where we are into perspective. It certainly has the makings of a 3rd mountain peak that is yet to see its fall from grace. But from this former trader's point of view, it seems that stock markets are about to "pop" one more time. Perhaps it will be the 'last hurrah'? I don't know. But it feels like a quick surge is coming. If it happens I think it may very well mark the end to the Great Reflation and give us that 20% correction that has not been seen in years. But that may be from notably higher levels than we see today. There are very few reasons to be short right now other than a 'its got to end soon' argument. Lets see how things play out.

For buyers of Manhattan real estate, its been long enough now that chances are high you will be buying a property from someone who bought it in the past 5 years or so. For many, seeing the profit that the seller is about to get can make your stomach turn. Well, try to get over that. The market is what it is and Im trying to report on it with a combination of local Manhattan real estate data and whats going on in the outer macro world.

If someone paid $2M for a high end classic 6 in 2009, you can expect them to ask at least 50% more in todays market and probably get very close to it! You can NOT compare todays market to that of 2009 or 2010 at all! These are completely different times with 180 degree moves in the perception of fear about investments and the banking system as a whole. So if you find it difficult to 'give a seller so much of an appreciation' over such short of a time, consider this:

-- Equities are up 185%+ over the past 5+ years since the '09 lows
-- Manhattan has become a utility driven marketplace with leverage strongly favoring sell side
-- The growth of the buyer pool has significantly outpaced supply trends over the past few years
-- With volatility and fear non-existent, buyers tend to be more euphoric/complacent about their investments/purchases.
-- Finally, it's not about your feelings on giving someone else profits for a nice trade! It's about the market, how the bldg and comps are trading, and most importantly what the market is able to produce right now!

My closing line should be that until things change, Manhattan continues to be very tough on buyers.


Data Feed Down, System Correcting Now

Posted by urbandigs

Thu Jun 5th, 2014 07:04 AM

Our RLS data feed that powers the UD charts system went down for 9 days at the end of May, resulting in no new data feeding our system. The feed came back online Friday May 30th and files that we have received since them contain updates both for realtime and the 9 days that the feed was down. The result is a spike as the system gets caught up.

This happened in early Jan and our response flow will be the same, which is:

1. Wait for all new files to come in and the system to normalize. Probably 2 weeks since the feed came back up, which means we should wait until mid June.

2. Our charts should self-correct over the course of the next 2-3 weeks. We built this system knowing that there was the chance of data outages like this. In the end, we just have to deal with each occurrence individually as our system corrects itself over time.

3. Once the 'missed files' seem to be all caught up we will go back and attempt to smooth out the chart from the period when the feed went down to the period of surge when the feed came back online and backfilled missing data.


We are in step 1 now but UD users are noticing and emailing me. So I wanted to explain.

Right now we are putting the finishing touches on an entirely new UD Manhattan data system. It will be night and day and a complete relaunch and redesign of all site pages. Once we push the site live we will work on backup systems so in the event this happens again in the future we have a backup ready to kick in.

I just want everyone who uses & reads this site to understand what the issue is and how we are going about resolving it. Cheers!