Quarterly Manhattan N'hood Performance Check

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Feb 12th, 2013 09:50 AM

A: Lets take another look at the rolling 3-month trend for all 16 Manhattan neighborhoods/submarkets that the UrbanDigs' system tracks in real time. Shown below are each neighborhoods' pending sales trends (a measure of deal volume/demand) and active inventory trends (a measure of supply). The baseline for Manhattan as a whole over the last 3-months has Pending Sales down 4.9% and Supply down 12.3% -- this baseline should be used to determine relative strength & weakness as we focus on each neighborhoods performance over this time period.

Before we get into the Manhattan neighborhoods, lets take a quick peek at how the broader Price Points are performing over the last 3 months:

ALL MANHATTAN --> Pending sales down 4.9%
MANHATTAN <$1M --> Pending sales down 11.8%
MANHATTAN $1M-$2M --> Pending sales up 2%
MANHATTAN $2M-$5M --> Pending sales up 5.3%
MANHATTAN $5M+ --> Pending sales up 13.9%

Conclusions: Its clear that the higher end price points are seeing more robust deal volume over the past 90 days than their lower end counterparts. The $1M and under price point is the clear under-performer right now and is not seeing the kind of frenzy that is occurring in the tighter, higher price points.

Now, here are all the Manhattan neighborhood trends we track so we can see where the action is happening; I added supply trends after each neighborhood's 3-month pending sales #:

3-MONTH PENDING SALES TRENDS -- Supply trend

Tribeca: +32.4% -- supply down 10.4% over this time
Gramercy/Flatiron: +22.2% -- supply down 17.8% over this time
Midtown East: +5.6% -- supply down 13.2% over this time
East Harlem: Unchanged -- supply down 9.2% over this time
Soho/Noho/West Village: -0.8% -- supply down 9% over this time
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: -1.5% -- supply down 15.4% over this time
Inwood/Wash. Heights: -2% -- supply down 12.1% over this time
Harlem/Morningside Heights: -4.7% -- supply down 32.8% over this time
------- BASELINE PENDING SALES ALL MANHATTAN = -4.9% -------

Upper West Side: -6.4% -- supply down 13.9% over this time
Upper East Side: -6.6% -- supply down 10.5% over this time
LES/East Village/Union Square: -7.6% -- supply down 17.8% over this time
Midtown West/Clinton: -8.3% -- supply down 12.2% over this time
Fidi/Civic Center: -9.8% -- supply down 1.6% over this time
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: -15.4% -- supply up 1.1% over this time
Chelsea/Midtown South: -20.6% -- supply down 4.3% over this time
Battery Park City: -54.8% -- supply down 32.8% over this time

Few notes:

-- Supply trends as a whole are down in most areas of Manhattan, with the exception of Harlem/Hamilton Heights which saw supply increase 1.1% over the last 90 days.

-- Tribeca & Gramercy/Flatiron are the clear out-performers right now

-- Battery Park City & Chelsea/Midtown South are under-performing the broader market trends right now

-- In the field, tight inventory is resulting in multiple offer situations across most neighborhoods. As discussed above, this is more so the case in the higher price points so buyers should adjust their bidding strategy accordingly. Sellers should be cognizant of hyper-local trends so as to take full advantage of leverage that is currently on their side -- pricing too high will immediately result in a much different experience than what the data is suggesting.


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