3-MTH Pending Sales Check for Manhattan N'hoods

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Apr 24th, 2012 08:45 AM

A: Lets check in on the 3-MTH pending sales trends for all Manhattan neighborhoods tracked by the UD system.

Notable Neighborhood Moves since the last check in mid-March:

-- Battery Park City market wakes up, surging 154% over the last 3 months
-- Tribeca cools down slightly seeing demand go from +68.9% to +57.6%
-- LES/Un.Sq/EVillage surges from +17.8% to +65.9%
-- Chelsea/Midtown South jumps from +36.6% to +91.5%
-- UWS jumps from +27% to +61.9%

Here are all the Manhattan neighborhood trends we track; I added supply trends after each neighborhood's 3-month pending sales #:


Battery Park City: +154.5% -- supply down 18.1% over this time
Chelsea/Midtown South: +91.5% -- supply down 6.6% over this time
LES/East Village/Union Square: +65.9% -- supply up 2.2% over this time
Upper West Side: +61.9% -- supply up 0.3% over this time
Gramercy/Flatiron: +59.1% -- supply down 1.9% over this time
Tribeca: +57.6% -- supply up 2.3% over this time
Upper East Side: +57.2% -- supply up 5.8% over this time
Inwood/Wash. Heights: +57.1% -- supply up 19.6% over this time
Midtown West/Clinton: +47% -- supply up 7.8% over this time
Harlem/Morningside Heights: +41.1% -- supply down 12.4% over this time
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: +39.6% -- supply up 5.3% over this time
East Harlem: +38.5% -- supply down 5% over this time
Soho/Noho/West Village: +34.8% -- supply up 11.5% over this time
Midtown East: +21.2% -- supply up 9.5% over this time
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: +12.9% -- supply up 5.5% over this time
Fidi/Civic Center: +12.5% -- supply down 5.2% over this time

The supply/demand trends continue to be quite clear --> new deal volume is pushing pending sales %changes to high levels while supply trends remain tight.

On a daily deal volume level, we are seeing around 40-50 new deals signed a day over the course of the business week - a very strong pace. The high end is also showing an uptrend but not nearly as active as the lower price points.

In terms of price points, over the last 3 months Manhattan Pending Sales trends are as follows:

PENDING SALES <$1M = +51.9%
PENDING SALES $5M+ = +27.6%

Manhattan tends to see monthly deal volume over the 1,200+ level only one month out of the calendar year - the reason being is that it gets harder and harder to sustain such high levels of new deal volume that this kind of action ultimately becomes self-defeating and will at some point, cool off.

Right now monthly deal volume is at 1,217, with another 57 deals going into contract yesterday alone. Sellers should take advantage of this kind of activity while it lasts and buyer's just have to deal with buy-side competition and a sense of urgency for quality, well-priced product a bit longer. Expect this pace of deal volume to slow as we get closer to the summer at the expense of even tighter supply as unsold listings tend to be removed from the market in the slower summer months.