3-MTH Demand Check For Manhattan N'hoods
A: The last check was December 17th, 2011 and before that it was October 17th, 2011. Lets see which neighborhoods are leading the way this time.
Notable Neighborhood Moves since mid-November:
-- Tribeca saw demand surge from 13.6% to 43.2% over the last 3 months
-- East Harlem saw a slowdown in demand after a late 2011 rise
-- Midtown East sustained its recent rise of about 17% in demand
-- Gramercy/Flatiron market continued to slow down since early November with a 16.7% decline in pending sales over the last 3 months
Here are all the Manhattan neighborhood trends we track:
3-MONTH PENDING SALES TRENDS
Tribeca: +43.2%
Soho/Noho/West Village: +24.7%
Fidi/Civic Center: +18.8%
Midtown East: +18.7%
Chelsea/Midtown South: +10.6%
Midtown West/Clinton: +7.3%
East Harlem: +4.8%
LES/East Village/Union Square: +3.9%
Upper East Side: +3.3%
Upper West Side: +0.9%
Murray Hill/Kips Bay: -12.3%
Battery Park City: -13.3%
Gramercy/Flatiron: -16.7%
Inwood/Wash. Heights: -18.9%
Harlem/Morningside Heights: -23.9%
Harlem/Hamilton Heights: -28.2%
I'll continue to do these 3-MTH DEMAND checks every few months and mix in supply trends every once in a while. If there are other types of trends you would like to see, ask away in the comments section and Ill publish a link if our system has the functionality to meet your requests.
The market to me is actively picking up over the last 3 weeks. Weekly deal volume continues to be over 200, but the currently 30-day pace is still yet to break and hold the 700 level. When it comes to tracking the monthly pace of demand I often refer to the Real-time Listing Updates table (a.k.a market ticker, subscription required) to show us which way the market is ticking right now. Right now the 30-day pace of new deals signed is around 680 - up from high 500's in January but still below levels seen over the last two Februarys. Knowing where that 30-day deal volume number is and where its coming from tells us as accurately as possible how active the marketplace is right now - use this table for interpreting the 30-day pace of new deals signed:
Subscribers can also quickly check historical months of new deal volume by clicking on the "Broker Y-o-Y Updates" tab in our Charts section. Exciting new tools are on its way - hoping to go live by end of April...Cheers!
Posted by takk
Thu Feb 16th, 2012 11:43 AM
Noah,
When moving the cursor over your charts for any of your categories (i.e. pending sales, active) , we are presented with a number, the name of the neighborhood, a percentage, date, and a number. (in that order)_
My questions are as follows:
1. What exactly does the percentage refer to? More accurate, what formula do you use to come up with that number? (Y-o-Y? 7 Day Average?)
2. The final number refers to the number of contracts signed per day or active per day? If this is true, then your real time listing updates chart on the left do not coincide with that is reflective on the chart.
For example, I am looking at coop one bedrooms in midtown east, less than a million, Jan 29, 2012 is showing me 70 contracts signed, but your real time listings updates is only showing 7 contracts signed since yesterday.
Thanks for your help.
Posted by urbandigs
Thu Feb 16th, 2012 04:11 PM
takk - some answers
First, the format of the hover popup on line charts is as follows:
CHART TYPE -- **NHOOD -- **PRICE RANGE -- **#BTHS -- **PROP TYPE -- (date of point your on, value on y-axis) -- % CHG FOR TIME PERIOD SHOWN
**this additional information will show if you go into nhood charts or submarket charts and input more data
1. The % shows you the % chg in the trend for the given time period of the chart your looking at - from start point to end point. If you change the start point, the % chg will update. This %CHG # is also static in upper left of all charts next to the legend. Lets take this simple example:
http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php
In this 1YR chart of Manhattan Pending, the % chg in Pending Sales over the last 1YR is "-1.4%". If I were to change this to a 1QTR chart, the % chg over that time is shown as "+5%".
2. Active line charts show total ACTV SUPPLY for either the whole market, a nhood, or a selected submarket. It has rules to it like, a listing is only active if the listing agent updates every 30 days and its less than 2yrs on the active marketplace.
The Real-Time Updates table is a market ticker of sorts showing you daily market production as it happens (updates 7x a day), yesterdays totals, and a 7-day and 30-day moving window. The moving windows are taking in fresh data in the front end, and losing stale data in the tail end and will show you tick ups and downs for
a) new deal volume - CONTRACTS SIGNED
b) new supply and new back on markets - ACTIVE
c) new off- market changes - OFF MARKET
TUTORIAL on this market ticker and its relation to bar charts (Broker Updates YoY tab) here:
http://www.urbandigs.com/2011/11/tutorial_2_using_the_real-time.html
The easiest thing to do is to publish a link here or start a chat (click CHAT button under the chart your on) and post a topic and we can talk specifics about the tools on that chart.
Finally, Ill leave you with the fact that this existing platform that has been up since launch in late 2010, will be greatly improved over the next 3-4 months. The chart UI will be enhanced and expanded for easier functionality and chart searches, and we will launch a Manhattan Comps Analysis tool for Building Sales trends and unit sales trends. Hopefully in April.
So much of the feedback we got to enhance these tools, including the hover popup and chart legend, will be upgraded at the same time in April when comps tool launches. In meantime, more feedback is always helpful!! thanks!