Quick Check on the Manhattan Market Ticker

Posted by urbandigs

Wed Nov 30th, 2011 12:45 PM

A: Tomorrow I will report on the month of November once all updates are in and scrubbed a last time for accuracy. For now, here is a quick check on the real-time market ticker.

tkr_nov30.jpg

The 30-day pace of new deals signed has been hovering in the low to mid 800s for much of November. Tomorrow a data cleansing algorithm will kick in one last time before publishing the total # of deals signed for the month of November. I'll put a bar chart up tomorrow once the #s are in.

GENERAL MANHATTAN MARKET CONCLUSIONS


**We are on pace to slightly beat November of 2010's production in terms of monthly signed deals

**The month of November is on pace to produce 18% more deals than last month and 43% more deals than the month of September

**Monthly New Supply is still pressured to the downside - We are currently on pace to produce 10% less supply this November compared to November of 2010, and about 15% less supply than November of 2009

**We are on pace to produce 29% less supply than last month, and about 43% less supply than September

**Manhattan Pending Sales is down 1.6% from this time last year, and down 9.6% from 3 months ago

**Manhattan Active Inventory is down 5.6% from this time last year, and up 8.5% from 3 months ago



Breaking: Fed, ECB, Bank of Canada Prop Up Markets

Posted by urbandigs

Wed Nov 30th, 2011 08:51 AM

A: Stimulus: Rinse, Lather & Repeat. That is the Central Bank playbook on dealing with debt deflationary forces after decades of credit expansion and all the wealth that comes with it. With Europe on the brink and bond markets starting to force the issue, we get the stimulating news that global central banks will join forces to 'ease strains on the global financial system'. Equity futures surge on the news.

fed_ecb.jpg

The experiment of fixing a solvency crisis with liquidity actions continue. Free markets will have to wait as intervention will once again 'kick the can' down the road by not allowing bad bets to get punished and bad debts to either be liquidated or restructured. This happens again and again and again and yet we still face the same issues in the future - when will they get it???

The result will likely be another round of euphoria into risk assets, pumping up most asset classes until the drugs once again wear off and leave markets hung over desperate for more. And then, we will have to deal with the unwinding of that trade. Ben Bernanke even admitted last year that his QE2 actions must be working because 'equity markets were rising'. At the time, QE2 was supposed to stimulate both consumer/business lending + create jobs - they failed at both.

The latest round of actions look to be focused on US Dollar Swaps, as signs of credit stress started to hit eurodollar swaps; discussed on UD last Friday.

Bloomberg reports, "Fed, Five Central Banks Cut Rate on Dollar Swaps":

The Federal Reserve cut the cost of emergency dollar funding for European banks as part of a globally coordinated central-bank response to the continent's sovereign-debt crisis.

The move is aimed at easing strains in markets and boosting the central banks' capacity to support the global financial system, the statement said. The cost for European banks to fund in dollars rose to the highest levels in three years today as concerns about a possible breakup of the euro area increased after leaders said they'd failed to boost the region's bailout fund as much as planned.

The six central banks also agreed to create temporary bilateral swap programs so funding can be provided in any of the currencies "should market conditions so warrant." Those swap lines were also authorized through Feb. 1, 2013.

"The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity," the statement said.
As usual, the reason provided for such actions will be 'ease strains on the supply of credit to households & businesses'. Bullshit. The reason is to bail out the banks that are up to their arse with exposure to bad sovereign debt. It seems the biggest banks bondholders are no longer risk capital due to the 'interwoven web that we wove' - for fear of systemic risks that may come from some kind of market event. Manipulation of free markets at its finest.

Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz discovered who the Top 4 Senate Lobbyists are for 2011 - care to guess what industry it is?? Ding Ding Ding..its the banks:
Bank Spending on Lobbyists 2010 vs *2011

American Bankers Association
•2010: $6,040,000
•2011: $6,690,000

Wells Fargo & Co.
•2010: $3,260,000
•2011: $5,890,000

JPMorgan Chase & Co.
•2010: $5,770,000
•2011: $5,800,000

Citigroup Inc.
•2010: $4,120,000
•2011: $3,800,000
The very fact that it was determined by the Global Central Banks that we need another round of co-ordinated actions is disturbing. It explains the fragility of the current situation before equity markets had the chance to react. I think the Fed's mandate has now become 'to prevent major bondholder losses and prop up all risk assets at any cost' - to which they have succeeded!

Time will tell what the unintended consequences of these actions will be, but I can tell you that with oil already over $100 and gold still holding over $1700, the little guys will continue to get crushed by mis-aligned fed polices.


Let The Holiday Season Begin...

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Nov 29th, 2011 12:53 PM

A: I hope everyone had a very happy and safe Thanksgiving last week. This is the time of year when holidays tend to slow down the pace of new deals signed until we get to 2012's active season. Being the data geek that I am, I added up the total CONTRACTS SIGNED for every month since 2008 to see which months are seasonally strong and which are seasonally weak - November is our 8th strongest month of the calendar year. Barring any major events in equity or bond markets around the world, expectations should be muted a bit as we get into December which happens to be the 2nd slowest month in the calendar year, behind only the month of September which lies at the bottom of the list.

Buyer's and sellers should adjust their unique strategies according to:

a) Current market conditions / trends
b) Manhattan market seasonality, and
c) their unique financial/other situation


All three of these factors play a role in the buying or selling process.

Current Market Conditions / Trends - Its always a good idea to have an understanding of both the market and the submarket that you are trying to buy or sell into. Manhattan is the fastest paced market and most expensive city to live in this country! Add in the fact that Manhattan is not 1 market, rather, a series of submarkets that vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. What's happening in the low-end of the market may be very different than what is happening in the high-end; and vice versa.

So understanding where both the market and submarket are trending today relative to 3,6, or 12 months ago will give you the information you need to adjust your buying or selling strategies.

Manhattan Seasonality - Here is a list showing the top performing months in terms of 'New Signed Contracts' for Manhattan real estate - format "MONTH - TOTALDEALS":

1. May - 3990
2. June - 3989
3. April - 3980
4. March - 3899
5. Feb - 3218
6. July - 3126
7. Aug - 3021
8. Nov - 2869* (NOV 2011 almost finished, 30-day ticker # used)
9. Oct - 2788
10. Jan - 2782
11. Dec - 2537* (DEC 2011 not in yet, avg of 3yrs used)
12. Sep - 2482


By looking at the data it is very clear that the months of March through June see noticeably more action than the months of September and December; two of the three slowest months in the Manhattan RE calendar. For non subscribers, here is a link to one of our free charts on UrbanDigs that show Pending Sales for the Manhattan market - 2009 saw delayed seasonality due to the credit crisis.

**FREE Manhattan Pending Sales Chart (Jan 2008 - present)**

Any buyer or seller under a time pressure to move should take note of these seasonal trends and set expectations accordingly. If you have to buy a property and close in 90 days and its March, chances are you will be dealing with congestion on the buy side over well priced, quality inventory that hits the market. If your a seller who absolutely has to liquidate immediately for whatever reason, and its mid November, you'll be dealing with two historically low volume months ahead of you. These are just two examples but you get the idea.

Dynamic markets are always a challenge to accurately track and when it comes to real estate, we should measure monthly performance year over year for production comparisons (to adjust for seasonality) and month to month to identify the current trend.

Unique Situation - Every buyer and seller's situation is unique and may affect the ultimate strategy. In a service business like real estate, the best broker's will combine past experience and wisdom learned with the latest technology on what the markets are currently doing to guide clients accordingly. What works for one client, may not work for another. On the sell side outside of marketing/exposure, in my head all that matters is a) price and b) time on market for the client - what kind of market are we in, what kind of bid can I realistically expect the market to produce, and how long do I expect it to take to procure that bid given the pricing strategy that I am advising the seller to take?? These are the most important questions and we need to know how to interpret comparable sales, current market strength/weakness, and this market's seasonality to properly guide the seller the best way given their unique situation. Pricing a property incorrectly can significantly impact any timing and ultimate price expectations that the seller may have.

This is the time of year when many unsold listings are removed from the active marketplace to 'freshen up' for the historically more active months that start in February! How this type of advice jives with your client's current needs is another story.

Over the next few months...

*Buyers should expect declining levels of inventory as product is temporarily taken off market - The reverse kicks in around the first and second week of January but often my clients feel frustration of a lack of inventory until well into February

*Sellers with a time pressure should think twice about real, motivated offers received that may be only slightly below their bottom line - chances are the next 60 days will see declining new deal volume

*Deals that are in the works mid-DEC or later should lengthen expectations a bit on the diligence and contract signing process. The holidays always tend to slow things down a bit on that front. What usually takes 1-2 weeks, likely will spill over a bit as we near year end. These days, a deal that is turned over within 4-5 days from deal sheet to fully executed contract is considered quite fast.


Cheers!



Europe Govt Debt Sells Off / EU on Brink

Posted by urbandigs

Fri Nov 25th, 2011 08:29 AM

A: Cracks are popping up everywhere around Europe as the Euro experiment faces its toughest challenge yet. How the Euro comes out of this situation is anyone's guess, but most agree that it won't survive in its current form. How these events unfold and affect global markets are still a mystery, but the warnings should at least be heeded. Europe's debt issues, followed by slowing housing/credit/growth in China after an insane period of expansion, are now the two biggest threats to our markets. US equity markets look to selloff for a 7th consecutive day on the news.

The EU issues are certainly not new as they have been lingering for years now. But when the markets deem the events news, that's when we all seem to care about them. Its funny how it works, things dont matter until they do.

Look no further than Italy's latest 2YR Govt Bond Yields to see how fast this contagion is spreading around Europe - via Mish's "Italy 2YR Yield at 7.9%":

The European bond selloff continues unabated, once again led by surging yields on 2-Year bonds pretty much across the board, especially Italy, Belgium, and Portugal.

Italy 2-Year Government Bonds

sovereign debt  Italy 2011-11.25.png

I failed to mention previously that the yield on Greek 1-Year bonds soared over 300% on November 23...
300% for Greek 1YR Debt! That is the bond market's way of saying 'default'! Portugal 2YR yields are over 16% and Spain's 2YR note yields are approaching 6% - for a frame of reference, our 2YR yields are currently at 0.26%. Ask yourself, can you imagine what life would be like here in the States if our 2YR yields were over 7%?

As the markets expedite events on their own by sending borrowing costs surging, panic behind the moves grow and a self fulfilling cycle may begin to feast on itself - that's how markets end up forcing a central bank or govt's hand. This situation is closer than ever to unfolding before our eyes, so take note what is going on in Europe and how it may ultimately affect our markets here.

Bloomberg reports, "Italy Borrowing Costs Almost Double as Euro Tumbles":
Italy had to pay almost 7 percent to sell six-month bills at an auction today, fanning investor concern that the world's fourth-biggest borrower may struggle to finance its debt. The euro fell to a seven-week low.

"For all the periphery issuers, each auction brings such damaging concessions," Luca Jellinek, head of European interest- rate strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London, wrote in an e-mail. Two years into the region's debt crisis, European leaders are struggling to stop its spread and prevent contagion from affecting core countries such as France and Germany. The yield difference between French and German 10-year bonds reached an 11-year high on Nov. 17 and Germany failed to sell 35 percent of 10-year bonds on offer at a Nov. 23 auction.

The ECB has been buying Italian and Spanish debt since Aug. 8 in a bid to stem surging borrowing costs.
What a mess. Spreads to German bonds continue to widen, signaling rising levels of stress in the periphery countries.

It is now cheaper to borrow for 10YRs than it is to borrow for 2YRs in Greece, Italy and Portugal - this inversion of the yield curve is another indicator of stress and warns of a rising risk of near term economic recession. Italy has an 8Bln Euro longer term bond sale next Tuesday which could be the next big test of the country's ability to sell bonds at attractive rates. Other credit indicators, such as widening Euro-dollar swap costs approaching late 2008 crisis levels, are another confirmation of rising credit stress in the region.

US equity markets sold off about 7%-8% over the last 2 weeks in reaction to this news - so yes, its worth understanding what is happening overseas and how it may further impact our markets here. For Manhattan RE to get affected, the domestic selloff and the fear both need to be much much deeper than it has been so far.




Thanksgiving Manhattan Market Update

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Nov 22nd, 2011 09:55 AM

A: As the reporters get their mid quarter stories in on the state of the Manhattan housing market, here are some charts from the UrbanDigs platform on what we show is happening out there.

Bloomberg recently reported, "Manhattan's Luxury-Home Supply Dwindles as High-End Apartment Demand Jumps":

Sales of Manhattan luxury apartments, defined as the top 10 percent of all condo and co-op transactions by price, jumped 17 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

Prices haven't returned to peak levels. The third-quarter median price in the top 10 percent of the market was $4.17 million, down 16 percent from the high of $4.99 million in the first three months of 2008, according to Miller.

A "herd-like mentality" has spurred luxury buyers in the past several quarters, said Noah Rosenblatt, founder of UrbanDigs.com, a real estate analytics and consulting company in New York. Data compiled by UrbanDigs show demand for apartments priced at $5 million and above began to rise in February. Pending sales -- the number of properties that moved from an active listing to a signed contract -- jumped from 70 in February to 152 in late April. That was the biggest resurgence in that price range since 2008, Rosenblatt said.
I reported on Q3 back in early October and stated:
"In short, sales volume is noticably higher from last quarter and we saw a slight uptick in Average Sales price due to rise in pending sales for the $5M+ market that was discussed over the summer. As these deals ultimately close, the reports catch them at a lag. "
So what's happening right now? Well first we need to understand a few items:

#1: In normal markets, demand usually follows supply - First the 'new stuff' comes to market, then at a lag buyers sign contracts. The data quantifies this kind of statement under normal market conditions. While some people think its all about the supply, or the inventory, I have been public arguing that instead its "all about the bids". Its "the bids" that make the market and when the "the bids" disappear, well, the market shuts down and the sellers have to deal with the pressures of having to lower their asking prices to get a deal done - this is exactly what happened in late 2008 until early 2009.

Take a look at this chart showing you very simply Manhattan PENDING SALES vs ACTIVE INVENTORY over the past 1YR:

nov_22manhattan.jpg

#2 - Manhattan Real Estate is Highly Seasonal - Without a doubt, our seasonality looks like this:

Strong Months in Calendar Year --> February through May / November
Transition Months in Calendar Year --> January / June / July / October
Weak Months in Calendar Year --> August / September
Holiday Months --> December

The 'transition months' are those periods that usually mark the transition from a seasonally weaker market to a seasonally stronger one; and vice versa. For example, in January we start to see the signs of activity after a holiday driven slowdown in December. In June & July we tend to see the signs of weakness following our active season; etc..

Here, take a look at MONTHLY CONTRACT SIGNED totals to see what I mean:

mthlycsgn.jpg

November is kind of in-between and when we typically see the peak of late year action before the December holidays. This is a result of buyers ultimately snapping up new active supply that generally comes to market after Labor Day - check the above line chart to see what I mean. The peak of late year action usually comes sometime in November and right now is no exception. The market has picked up from lows in September and transitioned during the month of October to lead us to a more active month of November - that's how this all ties together.

#3 - To know whats happening right now, as in the past few weeks, we must look at the UrbanDigs Manhattan Market Ticker - This is the only tool on the market that tallies up daily listing status changes in Manhattan so we can see how many deals were signed today, how many listings came to market today and how many listings were taken off market today. Add those totals up over a 7-Day and 30-Day period and you can see the market tick up or down in real time. Right now I see the following:

7-DAY --> Manhattan registered 190 new deals signed over the last 7 days
30-DAY --> Manhattan registered 834 new deals signed over the last 30 days

Those trends are a far cry from October 5th, 2011 when I reported on Q3 report releases. Take a look at the difference in the real time ticker today as opposed to early October:

SNAPSHOT MARKET TICKER BACK TO OCTOBER 5, 2011
7-DAY --> Manhattan registered 143 new deals signed over the last 7 days
30-DAY --> Manhattan registered 598 new deals signed over the last 30 days

Both the weekly and the monthly trend for new deals being signed is up noticeably over the last 7 weeks; signaling to us the change in the pace of demand over this time. This is as real time as we can get on what is happening out there right now in the marketplace. This is also quite normal for this time of year and I would expect that we are peaking right about now as we head into Thanksgiving holiday and the generally slower month of December.

We must use caution when looking how equity markets or macro events may be affecting the Manhattan markets, because its not a 1:1 relationship and it will come at a lag. Recall that Manhattan didnt adjust to the credit crisis until late 2008 the first time around. Its no different now. Right now there are a lot of uncertainties around EU and global growth - time will tell how equity markets digest future events. When it comes to stock markets and bond markets, things don't matter until they do! Only the markets can determine when existing events start to cause 15-20%+ selloffs - like a bankrupt Greece, or widening credit spreads, or Eurodollar swap spreads or something simpler as rising borrowing costs in Italy, Portugal and Spain. And only that kind of sustained selloff, with the media effect and all, will disrupt the Manhattan markets enough to cause a shift down in price action. We have only seen temporary waves down so far in stock markets, nothing close to the prolonged fear that blanketed markets in 2008 and 2009.

Back to Manhattan RE, to me this is just plain old seasonality and November is seeing an uptick in action and I dont expect it to last much longer. In terms of price action, I dont see any significant changes from this summer other than the fact that next quarters report likely will have less 'uumph' in it due to the decline of pending sales that ultimately fuel future closings. Today's market seems to be trading around the late 2005 to early 2006 levels or so, still down from 2007's peak. The market was a bit stronger earlier this year, and the months of March through June saw bidding wars and other frenzy-ish deals. We've deflated a bit since and today's level of action is likely to be the best you'll get the rest of the year; so buyers and sellers should set expectations accordingly.


Market Ticking Up / Looking Ahead to Q4

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Nov 14th, 2011 09:22 PM

A: A quick check on the Manhattan housing market. Also, keep in mind that real-time reports on the Manhattan markets focus on 'pending sales', while quarterly reports focus on 'closed sales'. There is always a lag between when a deal actually closes and when it is filed by the city and publicly recorded. Since quarterly reports come out the first or second day after the close of the quarter, there will be a notable # of future sales that never had the chance to make the prior report. For example, right now I count 604 Manhattan property sales that actually closed in Q3, but never made the report due to the city filing lag...food for thought!

Today happens to be one of those times where thoughts on the quarter to quarter trend may not jive with how the market is doing right now. If you recall, Q3 was quite strong with sales volume rising due to the surge in deals that were signed in April, May & June - these 'pending sales' eventually closed and were publicly filed during July, August & September (which are the Q3 months). But so far I count 604 Q3 sales that will be counted in the Q4 report due to ACRIS filing delays. What the pending #s are telling us on real-time conditions and what the sales #s are telling us for future reports may differ - but one thing remains constant --> pending sales trends lead actual sales trends. Let me show you...

MANHATTAN PENDING SALES vs ACTUAL SALES VOLUME(delayed 90-days)

pending_acris_nov2011.jpg
*Sales volume charts use the sale date, so we must delay the charts to allow time for future sales to be filed

Conclusions from this chart: The pace of newly signed Manhattan deals started to slow from its peak in July and eventually bottomed out in October. The pipeline of 'pending deals' today is significantly lower than 3 months ago leading to the conclusion that Q4 sales volume will most likely be much lower than this past Q3. I would also expect slight qtr-to-qtr drops in both median and avg price action given the makeup of deals waiting to close for Q4 - i.e., all price points saw a decline in pending sales during Q3.

What this chart does not show is the action that the markets are seeing over the past 3-4 weeks. For that we must look to the Real-time Market Ticker - here is a snapshot showing the ticker as it looks tonight versus how it looked two and a half weeks ago:

ticker_comparisons_oct-Nov.jpg

By looking at todays ticker vs the ticker 2 1/2 weeks ago I can see that:

1) The 'Weekly' Pace of new demand continues to rise and remain over 200
2) The 'Monthly' Pace of new demand is up over 800 now, from high 600s in late October


The data doesn't lie and the markets have been ticking up as they usually do this time of year before the holidays slow things down. A recent tutorial on how to interpret and use the Market Ticker shows you how to put the #s into perspective and compare current 30-Day CSGN totals to past month totals - low 800s for November seems about normal.

Expect new deal volume to slow a bit as we get past Thanksgiving and into the December Holidays. Its the time of year that many sellers use to take listings off the market for freshening, while new inventory prepares for 2012's active season. Typically new inventory and new demand start to rise again in mid/end of January. Time will tell and Ill report on the trends as they unfold. Cheers!


Floor Multiplier: Valuing Low Floor vs High Floor

Posted by urbandigs

Wed Nov 9th, 2011 07:43 AM

A: Originally posted on Dec 15th, 2010 after requests on this topic - I got inspiration for this post from Paul Zweben of Elliman who publishes HungryDomaine.com. When I do a comps analysis for a buyer client I do four main types of adjustments to come up with some idea of a fair market trading range for the target property: a floor adjustment, a size adjustment, a time adjustment, and a renovation adjustment. For now, lets discuss the floor adjustment and what I like to call the Floor Multiplier.

Before I began I want to start out by saying that any type of floor adjustment is an imperfect science. There is no hard and fast rule and since the market doesn't exist in a vacuum, its impossible to predict how any one buyer will ultimately value the light/view/exposure differences between the TARGET APT and COMP-A, or COMP-B.

With that said, we need to try right! Most new developments during the boom got in the habit of adding approximately $15,000 - $25,000 per floor in premiums for the luxuries of more sunlight and nicer views that come with higher floor units. For existing resale its a bit trickier so lets delve into this.

There are two main elements in figuring out what kind of floor multiplier you should use when doing a comps analysis to what hopefully is a same-line sale (same footprint, different floor): TYPE OF CHANGE IN VIEW and AMOUNT OF GAP IN FLOORS.

TYPE OF CHANGE IN VIEW: When comparing two in-building same line comparable units we need to determine the level of change in the view quality. In other words, is there a drastic difference in the view or is there no difference in view? Lets take two hypothetical examples to explain this point:

a) Drastic Change in View Quality --> The difference between Unit 3A and Unit 25A, that share the same footprint and exposures. Unit 3A is on a low floor and does not clear the opposing buildings, limiting both the natural sunlight and the quality of the view. Unit 25A completely clears all nearby buildings and offers full city views and is flooded in sunlight.

b) No Change in View Quality --> The difference between Unit 22A and Unit 25A, that share the same footprint and exposures. While there is a 3 floor difference, both units offer the same quality of view and same level of natural sunlight.

Make sense? Ok, lets move on to the next item to take into account.

AMOUNT OF GAP IN FLOORS: We have to be cognizant in the gap in floors between the target apartment and the comp. For larger gaps, we need to lower the floor multiplier or risk over-estimating the premium that a higher floor unit can absorb on the open market.

a) Small Gap in Floors -->: Lets call it the difference between Unit 3A and Unit 6A. In this scenarios we should maintain the floor multiplier or in some cases, raise it a bit if there is a drastic change in view. Think about it, if there is a 4 story building opposing these two units that limits Unit 3A but does not affect Unit 6A, we should properly add that in even though there is only a 3 floor difference.

b) Big Gap in Floors -->: Lets call it the difference between Unit 3A and Unit 25A, a 22 floor difference. Now if we stick to the $20,000 or so a floor premium in this scenario, then the 25th floor would be valued about $440,000 more - clearly that is unrealistic and something that cannot be absorbed in the open market. So, if there is a big gap we should lower the per floor premium a bit so as not to over-estimate the premium that is likely in the open market.

Hopefully your still with me and keep in mind that this is how I view comps analysis for my buyer clients - over time you start to get a natural feel for it.

If I were to plot all these out into a table, it would look something like this:

DRASTIC CHANGE IN VIEW/SUNLIGHT
BIG GAP: Use $7,500 to $12,500 multiplier per floor
SMALL GAP: Use $20,000 to $25,000 multiplier per floor

NO/MINOR CHANGE IN VIEW/SUNLIGHT
BIG GAP: Use $5,000 to $7,500 multiplier per floor
SMALL GAP: Use $10,000 to $15,000 multiplier per floor

An example from above would value Unit 25A about $30,000 more than Unit 22A where there is virtually no change in view. Also, we would value Unit 25A about $165,000 more than unit 3A where there is a drastic difference in view and amount of natural sunlight.

I find that the most coveted properties (think Madison/5th Avenue types) will value higher floor units at a even higher multiplier than what I show here. For example, in a coop on 78th and Madison where a high floor unit gets a park view but a lower floor unit doesn't, I would go as far as using a $30,000 to $45,000 per floor multiplier to properly value the unit with park views. Again the market is a living thing and doesn't exist in a vacuum. In the end any unit is only worth what someone is both willing and able to pay for it. That leaves us brokers, buyers and sellers constantly wondering where that ultimate bid will eventually come in to value the property. In the meantime, this is the next best guess that I feel confident enough in to publish here on UrbanDigs!



Co-op, Condo, TWNH Charts Go Live / UES TWNH Demand Rises

Posted by urbandigs

Tue Nov 8th, 2011 09:24 AM

A: Okay, so we went live with a few upgrades this week including real-time Manhattan Co-op, Condo, & Townhouse charts. Specifically, we added a "PROP TYPE" dropdown input in the Neighborhood Trends & Submarket Trends Chart tabs so you can further drill down real time trends in the Manhattan marketplace. Below is an example of a chart that looks at total demand for UES property versus demand for Townhouses only in the UES - a comparison that will allow you to pinpoint which segment of the market might be over/under-performing the neighborhood trend. Lets discuss.

Subscribers can now create charts for Co-op, Condo and Townhouses in the Neighborhood Trends & Submarket Trends tabs in our Charts section.

This was a widely requested upgrade that took a bit more time to launch due to the process of data accuracy checks. We hope to launch this new PROP TYPE option in the Market Trends & Neighborhood Sales tabs in the near future, so you can further slice & dice real time trends for the Manhattan markets.

Here is an example chart comparing the demand for the entire UES market versus only Townhouses in the UES - the results are a bit surprising!:

UES PENDING SALES ALL vs UES PENDING SALES TWNH

twnh_ues.jpg

I had no idea the UES Townhouse market was so on fire these past few months, as the broader markets saw only marginal tick ups in new demand. For one neighborhood in Manhattan to see TWNH demand rise so much in such a short period is fairly surprising; but hey, that is what makes the markets so intriguing and adds another reason why we need tools to track it.

I did a quick check on Streeteasy.com and sure enough found the following townhouses enter contract over the last 3 months:

1. 54 East 64th Street - Asking $25M - Went to contract late September
2. 422 East 85th Street - Asking $10M - Went to contract early September
3. 123 East 71st Street - Asking $9M - Went to contract early October
4. 407 East 75th Street - Asking $8.995M - Went to contract mid October
5. 63 East 92nd Street - Asking $8.25M - Went to contract mid October
6. 160 East 78th Street - Asking $8.25M - Went to contract mid October
7. 179 East 71st Street - Asking $7.9M - Went to contract late September
8. 163 East 62nd Street - Asking $5.2M - Went to contract late August
9. 142 East End Avenue - Asking $4.1M - Went to contract early August
10. 334 East 69th Street - Asking $3.995M - Went to contract mid September
11. 1342 Lexington Avenue - Asking $3.9M - Went to contract early November

I always perform spot checks on the UD real time charting system to ensure that we are properly measuring changes in the marketplace as they occur. The rise in UES townhouse demand looked like a perfect test case and sure enough, our system was indeed properly counting the recent rise in demand for products in this segment of the marketplace.

I'm sure TWNH hunters in the UES noticed the recent demand being out in the field and following the market - but if you didnt, now you can simply come to UrbanDigs.com and create a real time chart and see the supply & demand trends in seconds!

We also launched an upgrade to our Manhattan sales data pages, and now display:

- Bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- Size
- Price Per SFT


...in the sales table (subscribers can search building sales using the SEARCH ACRIS SALES box on the left). We already have started development on our final mission to build the best comps system for the Manhattan housing market and in my opinion, will drastically change the way brokers produce Comparable Market Analysis reports for clients! My hope is to get every REBNY broker to use these tools because deep down inside I truly believe that the best market in this country deserves the most innovative and real time tools to track it! Cheers!




Tutorial #1: Using The Real-Time Manhattan Market Ticker

Posted by urbandigs

Mon Nov 7th, 2011 03:38 PM

A: This is just a test on a new series of tutorials I will do explaining every tool of the UrbanDigs real time Manhattan tracking system, and how I use them to interpret market trends and signals. This first test try will be an explanation on how I use the real time market ticker and how I tied the ticker into the monthly bar charts section (monthly contracts signed. monthly actives, etc). Ill also give out some general tips on these videos on what the charts may be telling us on real time conditions in the Manhattan real estate market.

I would greatly appreciate any feedback on these as I keep getting asked to put tutorial videos up on how to use the Manhattan data tools. Nothing was scripted here and I do tend to talk fast (i even tried to slow down!), so let me know how you think I can make these better for users of this sites data! Thanks!

*to go Full Screen, click the play button and then mouse on the video and click the bottom right 'enlarge' button of the player