New Deals & New Inventory Ticking Up
A: While the pace of ACRIS closings are yet to move up, the market has seen a nice move higher in Active Inventory followed by a nice 7-10 days or so of new deals signed into contract. Our active season usually sees around 250-300 new deals signed each week and as of now we had 220 new deals signed in the last 7 days. While one week is not a trend make, we got the real time tools so why not talk about them!
Here is a snapshot of the Manhattan Market Ticker, otherwise known as the Real-Time Listings Update tool for subscribers; this tool updates 6-7x a day as brokers update the status of their listings via the ROLEX broker sharing system:
I highlighted the 7-day new CONTRACTS SIGNED slot even though I keep tabs on the 30-day moving window more closely. We got some weak days in the end of Dec and early Jan, so as we get into the end of the month and early February I would expect the 30-day slot to bump higher.
I did happen to notice a big move higher in Midtown West pending sales the past few weeks, and I'm going to investigate that further and try to report on it later.
Posted by Wbottom
Tue Jan 18th, 2011 09:20 AM
whoa...realtime contracts signed look like dogmeat---here a daily chart with 2 or 3 months of data would be helpfull--it would let users see if, as now the 30 day/600 contracts signed was all about the holidays, or about the holidays as well as a pretty anemic january
Posted by urbandigs
Tue Jan 18th, 2011 09:28 AM
Right so lets think about it for a moment...the 30 day window counts total contracts signed from DEC 18th to JAN 18th so far without todays updates yet...if you recall, the pace of deals signed started to really slow around mid DEC after a strong Oct, Nov, and early DEC..So, two things:
1. We lost the strong days in early DEC that came out of the tail end of the 30-day window
2. We have the very soft last 10-12 days of DEC counted + the soft first 5-6 days of JAN counted in the tally now
So naturally the 30-day window is pressured to downside..in about 2-3 weeks, once we get to first week of FEB, maybe 2nd week, I would expect the 30-day number to rise noticeable - assuming deal pace continues of course..
Posted by urbandigs
Tue Jan 18th, 2011 09:31 AM
Ill talk to my engineer about a daily chart of sorts..we are working on much bigger things now and focus is on:
1. new ACRIS section - the biggie, wont launch for 3 months or so
2. New Charts: dollar volume pending + ACRIS, days on market, absorption rate, etc..
3. Collapse tabs so you can chart a submarket vs general market
4. Add coop, condo, and townhouse inputs to chart tools
5. expand ACRIS to all boroughs
There are 15-20 integrity issues with item #1...so we have our hands full for now. I can add to list but it will be after these items for sure..all in good time. I wish I can raise some funding to get a full time tech team to work!