Manhattan Sales Trends For Past 4 Years
A: Who says Manhattan's real estate market doesn't move that much? This market has a tendency to lag into housing recessions and lead out of recoveries. Just a tendency, not a rule. One thing is for sure, this market is quite resilient given the extreme nature of what we went through.
Below is the 90 day moving average of sales trends direct from our ACRIS feed. In a world of broker maintained sales listings, to us this ACRIS feed represents the verify point. Its the one data source we can trust for when a sale actually took place, the sale price, and for what unit. This data feed plays a crucial role in the development and operation of our upcoming real time analytics platform. View larger image
UrbanDigs Says: Sales volume trends does not equal price action trends. However, the two do have some positive correlation. From looking at this chart, you can clearly see the new development boom and euphoria that came with the peak of 2007. You can also see the plunge in sales volume post-Lehman, the standstill in deals very early in 2009, and the noticeable sustained pickup in sales volume starting around April-May of 2009. On average, this market sees approximately 8,000 - 9,000 transactions a year; with over 13,000 in 2007. 
The means a rough average of between 666 - 750 contracts signed a month if we back this up to real time sales pace entering the pending sales pipeline. Seasonality then kicks in with hotter months seeing closer to 850 - 1,000 deals signed a month and slower months seeing 500 - 600 contracts signed a month. Right now, as you can see from the real time Broker Status Update box I added to the right here, the Manhattan market has seen 347 contracts signed in the last 7 days alone and 1,074 contracts signed in the last 30 days; not including today's updates yet to come in. What does this all mean? The market is STILL quite solid in terms of sales pace considering the sustained stronger volume since mid 2009. This may explain why inventory of well priced quality products are going to contract under the average days on market trend, and why buyers may be getting frustrated that competing bids for desirable property are coming in higher than theirs. This is not an environment ripe for buyers to successfully pull of a low-ball bidding strategy with the thinking that every seller is desperate and forced to liquidate. Think about it this way, the seller and the seller broker have way more information than any one interested buyer has on the state of the listing process for their unit - for all you know, multiple offers have already been submitted and rejected because the price was deemed 'too low' for the seller to move on. In this environment, its hard to believe that your offer is the only one that was sent in for a well priced desirable property. This is something buyers must adapt to in the market right now. The question is, when does this environment start to change.
Posted by datajunkie
Mon May 3rd, 2010 10:16 AM
what is the difference between new listings and active?
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 10:30 AM
datajunkie - there are two types of listings that can re-enter the ACTIVE marketplace:
1. New Listings - listings whose orig_list_date are today and represent day 1 of marketing
and
2. Back on Market - I dont have time to explain how the Rolex sharing system works, but there are many status updates that brokers can choose from to place a listing in a new state. ACTIVE in the box displayd, represents all NEW LISTINGS plus all listings that were on the market previously, and for whatever reason were removed (either off market or contract signed) and then replaced BACK on MARKET again.
Hope this clears that up. So basically, in the last 30 days, 1,048 listings of the 1,836 listings that re-entered ACTIVE inventory were brand new listings, without a prior ACTIVE state.
Posted by sandy mattingly
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:06 AM
Good stuff, Noah! I just linked to this on my blog, where I noted that The Miller's sales volume reporting by year shows similar totals as 2006 for the prior years back to 2000, and a fairly narrow range before that 2007 peak. THX much.
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:11 AM
Thx Sandy! Yea we got ACRIS back to 2003. Just showed past 4 years in the screenshots for this post.
You'll love the new system Sandy! Unfortunately, I am away fro 2 weeks in June 2nd, in Europe. Although we expect system to be ready in 4th week of May, we will delay launch until I get back so I can be here for when its put live.
Hate to ask people to wait another 2 weeks, but to launch after 11 months and all the effort and not be here to help, would not be the wisest move
Posted by nyc_buyer
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:23 AM
hey Noah, how do you account for shadow new development inventory in your 2.0?
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:33 AM
aha NYCBUYER! excellent question and a big problem. cant get into now, heading oout on appts and then after meeting with a special contact to tackle that exact issue..i have an uphill REBNY battle in front of me, that started a few weeks ago.
will explain later when I have time.
Posted by Fred Peters
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:44 AM
Noah, this is great info. Will be interested to hear what your uphill REBNY battle is. As to the last line of your post, the question is not only when the environment starts to change, but also how?The confluence of factors which brought about today's environment is morphing quickly as sellers feel the shoe back on their foot. Interesting to see how that will play out...
Posted by idigress
Mon May 3rd, 2010 11:53 AM
Really great info, thank you so much! Good ? on when it will change. I am getting the sinking feeling it's going to stay strong and surprise us all.
Posted by Keith Burkhardt
Mon May 3rd, 2010 04:49 PM
The "ACRIS" chart is awesome.
I just submitted a near ask offer for an Elliman listing UES/2nd avenue, not exactly prime vanilla post war building. We came in near ask because we knew the building and it was priced fair, buyers just wanted to close quick with no haggling, been looking and understood the market. I get a call from this SVP that the owner is surprised by such a strong offer so fast(new listing). I get a call a few hours later...the owner has rasied the price by $60k!! EVERY home I have had bids on in the last month+ has had multiple offers. And I have some very frustrated customers....Somebody has poked this sleeping bear.
Posted by Thisson
Mon May 3rd, 2010 05:12 PM
Everyone still feels the euphoria from the alcohol - it takes a long time for the hangover to kick in.
Posted by Potential Buyer
Mon May 3rd, 2010 05:15 PM
I expected the volume of sales to be stronger than a year ago. What would really be helpful for buyers like myself is to know are the contract prices. Are prices at 2005 or 2006 level or 10-20% off peak?
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 05:43 PM
Fred - Great to see you hear and thanks for the comment!
the last line in your comment is also intriguing. So I ask you, when will sell side optimism start to outpace the rise in buy side confidence and their bids? Its all about the bids. Its quite challenging to notice the the period when the shift occurs and the sellers got too optimistic, too fast. I wondered about this in Sept/Oct of last year, questioning how long the improving market would sustain itself for. Turns out, it lasted way longer than I first thought.
Also, if we do see a slowdown, will it be seasonal? Or a sign of something deeper? Thats the thing, it will be almost impossible to tell; as we always slow once we reach mid June or so.
Interesting times indeed.
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 05:49 PM
Fred - as for the uphill battle, I am gathering some soldiers behind me in an attempt to fill the one big gap in the data; rolex system. The new developments.
This is the big problem. We have to remove new devs entirely from CS and closed data because its just not reliable. As it is now, a 150 unit bldg when approved for marketing with AG, will only create 20-30 records in rolex for the initial 20% of full inventory they wish to sell. They will keep other units unreleased, creating no record, yet most likely they will be on market. They can sell them, and they do. Then they dont bother to share the info. later on, they will do a batch upload with first history in first new record being CONTRACT SIGNED. That model needs to go.
I say, developers need to create a record for each and every individual unit in the first offering with AG. Schedule A of offering plan. I dont care if 80% of that inventory is then set to OFF MKT, that is developers right. But it must be able to be measured. Then, the developer must timely update status and must ACTIVATE any off market unreleased unit before updating to contract signed. If it was signed into contract, it must have been on ACTIVE market for sale. No more shadow shit. Now more mind games on the consumers. No more hiding. create the record, and set it off market if you want to hold back inventory.
Posted by Noah
Mon May 3rd, 2010 05:52 PM
Keith - My business experienced that mostly in mid Jan - early March. That frenzy-ish description of the market, seemed to turn the corner a bit for me. But clearly its still happening as I hear same stories from colleagues I trust
Posted by yunling
Mon May 3rd, 2010 06:36 PM
lower lows, lower highs. looks like a bear to me despite the hype.
not every apt is desirable in a market, less than 50% by definition. so what are we describing:the market? or "desirable/well priced".
Technicals on the (superb)chart would show the stochs turning down (just a guess).
thank you for the charts.
Posted by links of london
Wed Jul 7th, 2010 02:25 AM
good post.thanks for sharing.
Posted by coach handbags
Thu Aug 12th, 2010 10:14 PM
Also, if we do see a slowdown, will it be seasonal? Or a sign of something deeper? Thats the thing, it will be almost impossible to tell; as we always slow once we reach mid June or so.