The 101 Guide to Getting an Investor Deal Done
We thought we would share a bit of what we’re seeing on the investor front at this time. In this market, we’re speaking with lots of groups with cash galore (particularly foreigners), looking to capitalize on this “depressed” market that we’re in. News are a’buzzin’ over in their respective countries that Manhattan is THE place to buy right now, and all of them want to get in on the action before their competition does. We’re finding that many of them are stepping into the NY market for the first time based on this buzz, with little local experience and much hearsay upon which they’re hanging their hats.
The issue is that many believe that they can purchase property at distressed prices and still get out of the investment in the next few years. While this can happen, it is far from the norm, with the plan generally executed by heavy hitters versus first time investors. Further, many are looking for “opportunity”. Who isn’t? It quickly slides into a question of which came first: the chicken or the egg?
The conversation usually goes something like this:
Agent: What are you looking for in terms of an investment?
Investor: I want to see properties that offer great value.
Agent: What does that mean to you?
Investor: You tell me, where is there opportunity in this market.
Agent: It depends on your needs, financing and exit strategy
Investor: We are in this to make money, and will tailor the strategy according to the opportunity.
So for those of you looking to wet your feet as a newbie investor, (or merely if you’re interested in that side of the coin) here is what it takes to make a deal happen today.
Keys to getting a deal done:
- Understand the basics: let’s look at very round numbers to make the point. Assume that you’re looking at a $300-$500 sq. ft. purchase price to acquire a building. Add on to that another $350-$400 in construction costs. Add on 5%+ in transaction costs. We’re now already nearing the $900/sq.ft. mark, and this doesn’t even take into account other soft costs associated with completing the project. Considering that condominium apartments are selling at an average of $1000/sq.ft. in the city, we’re talking razor thin margins for a re-sale opportunity, and long time-frame for renting the apartments out. Compare this to the ability to purchase in bulk new construction at less than $650/sq.ft. and you have to really wonder.
- Realize that it’s all scalable: “Yes but what about Harlem, Brooklyn or LIC?” you ask. Sure, most of the related costs are scaled down to be cheaper, but so are the prices on the way out, meaning there’s only a slight marginal benefit for investing in less expensive neighborhoods for the near term.
- Have your financing lined up: Understand that financing for acquisition needs is a max of 50%, and for development it’s close to non-existent. No longer can you rely on leverage to make a project worthwhile, refinancing just one or two years down the road as your exit strategy.
- Know your investment strategy: what does “opportunity” mean to you? Yesteryear’s mom-and-pop developers are this year’s vulture investors. You are not alone in trying to find a deal; chances are the bigger players have already scoured through the existing market opportunities. What is your time horizon? How realistic is it? Be disciplined about what your needs are, and then diligently work to find situations to meet your needs. If you do happen to work it the other way, be ready to work quickly and with all cash (further about that below).
- Are you an investor or not? We find it interesting when so-called investors get wrapped up in location, views or the quality of finishes. Unless you have a large portfolio you are trying to diversify, what should matter most to you is your return on investment. There is a buyer or renter for every apartment out there; don’t use individual standards to judge institutional opportunities.
- On the down low: As banks continue to extend and pretend, and developers maintain their pain, no one wants to make distressed opportunities too public. Most of the good deals taking place happen via relationships, conversations and quiet negotiations. Don’t expect to have 10 opportunities in front of you at any point in time. You need patience to allow the opportunities to surface; any public deal with readily available information is likely not going to give you the returns you seek.
- Speed: parlaying on the above, when deals do arise, be ready to move quickly. Speed to closing is absolutely key, and making the process easier on the bank or distressed owner/developer will be a significant competitive advantage to you. The window you will have to move on the deal will likely be tight, which is why having your ducks aligned in terms of your required returns is so important. That will NOT be the time for you spend weeks upon weeks determining if the deal makes sense or not. You will need a turnkey system in place, along with a team of trusted professionals, to help you quickly ascertain the situation to be able to jump on it.
- Cash rules: ‘nothing new here, but we couldn’t emphasize it more. All cash deals enable you to have the speed and ease of closing that any distressed seller will be looking for.
- Have realistic market expectations: don’t expect to get out of the project in the next 1-3 years; although the flip mentality should be long gone by now, many investors still believe that they can enter an exit an investment in the blink of an eye. Long term money may well be waiting to be made, but the short term bets are riskier than ever.



Posted by Bear
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 07:30 AM
Thanks Noah. I am investing in another market where the cap rates are higher, but your rules of thumb are universal.
Bear
Posted by Bear
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 07:31 AM
Sorry -- thanks Ana Maria. Good article.
Bear.
Posted by Ana Maria
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 09:20 AM
Glad they're helpful, Bear :)
Posted by real
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 11:35 AM
This reminds me of articles written 2 years ago that people believed the hype words like you used "time is now", "get in on the action, before someone else does" that got people to buy when properties where about to go down and they LOST HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of Dollars.
So, thanks for the information, but why not present it without trying to create that false sense of urgency that got us into the bubble in the first place. A lot of those investors lost A LOT of money who followed articles like this 2 years ago. The words you use are just like someone saying, "act now, as this is the last 2 left, and we have a lot of interest already". Don't lose out is what often makes people lose out a lot.
I am torn because I appreciate your information, and it is helpful, it just simply doesnt match the opening paragraph, which is so disappointing and seemed like a commercial to buy now!! It is disappointing that there was so much Broker HYPE and Sensationalism in the first few lines. It is so obvious it is fake broker lingo, you use every word they do.
Words like there is a "buzz" in all these countries and "THE" place to buy are taken straight from a 90 second commercial, its so obvious.
"get in on the action, before the competition does"
ARE YOU SERIOUS!! What action, things are predicted to be flat or decrease for at least 1 year, most likely 3. WHAT COMPETITION!!! This is so fake and trying to create a false sense of urgency!!!!
Again, thanks for the info but to try to create a sense of urgency on top is misleading and incorrect. There is no urgency to buy now.
Posted by Ana Maria
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 01:40 PM
real - I appreciate your comments, though let me assure you the last thing I wanted to do is create a sense of urgency.
- I'm saying that in their respective countries, the buzz is on - NOT here. I can't tell you how many conversations we've had with foreign investors trying to educate them on the harsh realities on the ground. Indeed, they ARE coming here amped, ready to go, and ready to call the shots, and it's not the case. It's either too early to get in OR the kind of depressed prices that make an investment worthwhile won't come. Either way, it is NOT Christmas time in NYC.
- I'm saying it still doesn't make sense, based on the acquisition and build-out costs to go into most of these deals; the numbers don't pan out. Investors are coming in demanding 7-12% ROI's: really??!!
- I'm saying that the few and far between "deals" that ARE, indeed, deals are the ones that happen quickly, on the down low, and all cash. By the time a property has been on the market represented by one of the big commercial brokerage firms with all the due diligence complete, it has been looked over by everyone and their brother. Because of that, and because distressed situations don't stay quiet for long, speed is of the essence if the deal meets specific investment needs. Further, when such situations arise, the number one most important thing IN THIS MARKET is to make it as easy and quick to actually get the transaction done. No false sense of rush, just a reality for smaller players.
- I'm saying that the flip mentality and its circumstances are GONE and you should be ready to hold for the long term.
It's funny actually - the piece was intended to bring eager, uninformed investors down to earth - I'm sorry it came across the other way around.
Posted by Ana Maria
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 01:50 PM
real - one more thing: indeed, there are tons of investors out there, all with cash, all now vultures, all looking for those opportunities. Everyone is on the sidelines waiting to pounce - to your point, however ... pounce on WHAT? (Keep in mind that as much as our media overhypes crashing rents here in the city, for example, local media abroad is overhyping foreign investment opportunities as well)
Investor cash is not the issue - it's the opportunities that are lacking right now. This is why there actually IS a growing sense of competition among investors to find and sift through good opportunities as they arise. Many of these investors really want to put their cash to work. As you mentioned, and as we believe, the commercial/conversion market is behind the residential market by at least 1-2 years. The question everyone is asking themselves is when to jump into the market.
Now, from the investor's point of view, in some one-off situations, it may make sense to get in before the market bottoms. Why? As Noah has written about the residential market, some sellers panicked in the beginning of 2009 and, thinking the market could fall much, much further, the negotiability of many transactions was much larger than it is today. Similarly, some great deals can take place before the market bottoms. But one needs to be disciplined to appropriately ascertain these situations, which is what I was trying to point out.
Posted by Noah
Sat Feb 13th, 2010 05:02 PM
Ana-Maria - I think you were pretty clear about the BUZZ being in respective countries. You did say: "News are a ’buzzin’ over in their respective countries that Manhattan is THE place to buy right now, and all of them want to get in on the action before their competition does."
I think REAL translates the general shift that you talk about in the article to how a speculative investor might view today's market --> buy soon or miss out on the deals.
In hindsight, the deals occurred when not many deals happened at all; feb/march/april 2009. As you say, the fear level on sell side resulted in a lot more 'hit bids' where the spread was very wide.
If anything, in todays market for prices priced correctly, the spread has narrowed big time. I am surprised at the sustainability of the sales pace though, and because of that I am not sure how much longer it will hold up.
So in my eyes, the contrarian in me would advise an investor to be very cautious on their deal and beware not to chase either themselves or competition that is def out there, because this is the part of the rebound phase that usually sees some chasing. Just be smart and be patient. I agree with both you and to what REAL is saying for investors.
For those buyers using the property for primary purposes as a utility/enjoyment, there is usually an urgency only because that is their own personal situation; maybe a rent renewal issue, maybe a their family is growing and they need more space and saved up to buy, etc..Just like some need to sell, some need to buy and feel that they must do so by a specific target date - given the lag it takes to close on a purchase. When fear levels rise/sales slow/inventory rises, the general motivation for buyers on the cusp to either renew your lease or postponse the purchase increases too...This is what makes a market and this market in particular so fascinating to follow!
Great stuff. Love it
Posted by David
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 08:32 AM
Hey
I fit perfectly into one this conversation and looking for a bit of a steer.
I am moving to NYC from Ireland late 2010, possibly early 2011. I am an accountant working for a global firm and aim to be in NYC for 2/3 years.
Rather than rent, considering the option to buy an appartment in Manhattan (location-wise, some folk have suggested Upper West Side). 'Flipping' an option in 3years time but so is keeping the place and renting after I leave NYC.
Do you guys have any advice?
Posted by Topper
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 09:15 AM
Noah,
What sort of cap rates are available to investors in Manhattan real estate today?
Thanks.
Posted by Noah
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 10:07 AM
I think AnaMaria would be the better person to ask on that one...but its getting up there...I would guess around 6-7% or so? depending on what we are talking here, I would think retail and office is hurting more than mixed use - just a hunch. but that is when you get interested in it
Ana Maria?
Posted by Ana Maria
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 10:43 AM
Topper -
Noah is right. Looking back to 2009, here is what we saw (referencing Robert Knakal's numbers).
On the multi-family end:
- Average caps on walk-up apartment buildings citywide were 6.92% vs 6.12% for elevator buildings.
- Highest caps were in the Bronx, with walk-ups trading at 7.87% vs. 8.1% for elevator buildings
- The lowest caps were in Manhattan (no shocker there), with walk-up buildings at 5.05% vs 5.52% for elevator buildings.
Mixed use: 6.43%.
Retail: 7.12%.
Office: hard to ascertain due to the many vacancies in sold properties
Upward pressure continues on cap rates across the board into 2010.
I hope this is helpful.
Posted by Fred
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 01:45 PM
Thanks Ana Maria - One point I'd add is that medium term financing cost is going up for multifamily, likely to 7.5% to 8.5% which is going to push exit cap rates up and prices down. This trend will keep investment activity muted. The ten year is already acting funny and I wouldn't be surprised see the long end melt up to 5% within 12 months....
Posted by Topper
Sun Feb 14th, 2010 10:20 PM
Thanks, Noah and Ana Maria!
That was helpful.
One last question. When I calculate what the cap rate would be for residential properties I have considered buying for my own use, I typically come up with numbers closer to 3%.
Does it make sense for "commercial" cap rates for apartments and "homeowner" residential "effective" cap rates to be so very different?
Many thanks!
Posted by Bear
Mon Feb 15th, 2010 10:24 AM
Topper,
I get the same cap rates on below 96th Manhattan condos and coops when bought in single units. I believe Ana Marie is talking about the cap rates for entire residential buildings, and she is talking averages. So a prime building that could possibly be broken up and sold to individuals would trade at a lower cap rate than the 5% average she sees for Manhattan.
To me, buying an apartment to live in for a 3% cap rate is a bad investment and is economically irrational when one can rent the same apartment, often in the same building, and then purchase 8% cap rates in the Bronx or 10%+ cap rates in another city. Its as if someone places a 2 to 3 times premium on owning a particular apartment. You can buy diversified apartment REITs that have caprates around 6 to 7% (when you back them out), and leave the management to someone else. Then you are simply counting on the managed apartment REIT rental growth keeping pace with your particular rental unit.
I don't know if NYC individual apartment purchase prices are going down. But I was/am willing to bet that the REIT/non-manhattan investment property rental price increases will more or less keep up comparing to the individual Manhattan apartment and what I can buy elsewhere enough, when the 2 to 3 times caprate multiple is taken into account. You can do a lot with the extra income, i.e. spend it, or buy more REIT or buy more non-Manhattan rental units.
Bear
Posted by real
Mon Feb 15th, 2010 05:23 PM
thanks ana for your comment, and noah as well. cheers.
Posted by Topper
Mon Feb 15th, 2010 05:28 PM
Thanks, Bear.
It helps when someone else corroborates your thinking - particularly when that thinking seems to be at variance with what the market is saying.
I'd really like to buy. But the economics just seem wrong.
Posted by Ana Maria
Mon Feb 15th, 2010 07:19 PM
Bear and Topper,
Indeed, I was speaking about averages as related to the purchase of buildings outright, versus individual units (echoing the conversations we're having with investors currently).
Your points are precisely why investors end up readjusting their expectations when they actually come here and see the opportunities for themselves.
This is also why we're not seeing significant cash outlays from those on the sidelines ... at least not yet.
Posted by anonymous
Tue Feb 16th, 2010 11:52 AM
Unfortunately with all the cap talk, your all missing the rub, the rental market.
Basing "cap rates" on historical data which is now in a great state of flux.
Paper stats can look wonderful but real life stats take precendent today.
Cap rate was a lovely term for the late 90's and the 00's.
I think the new term for 10's and at least 4 to 5 years will be good old fashion hard rent roll.
truthskr10
Posted by Ana Maria
Tue Feb 16th, 2010 07:47 PM
I don't disagree with you, Anonymous. This is one of the reasons why I didn't delve into the cap world in the original post; they're not the soundest piece of data on which to hang your hat.
That said, while rent roll is key nowadays, having some cap reference point doesn't hurt - at least from a relative standpoint.
Posted by Noah
Tue Feb 16th, 2010 09:06 PM
how about 'net effect' rent roll?
Posted by Ana Maria
Tue Feb 16th, 2010 10:05 PM
?? not sure I know what you mean, Noah (it may just be too late in the day *smile*)
Posted by anonymous
Wed Feb 17th, 2010 11:25 AM
Ana maria
Net effect is those missing months of rent that were given free for someone to sign the lease.
As Noah brings up, this is also crucial today for a proper picture an investment's true income. Every month free affects the income by -8.3%.
You see it's more beneficial for a landlord to show a higher monthly rent and give a month free rather than reduce the rent by 8.3%. Higher "published" rent gives a building/unit more perceived value to resell, or to borrow against.
truthskr10
Posted by Noah
Wed Feb 17th, 2010 11:54 AM
right so its pricing in free months rent or other concessions offered..2009 was the year of the concession that is for sure..not sure how its going now, havent checked in lately on rental markets.
An example is my lease renewal.
So, I was at 3300/mth prior to my renegotiation.
I got landlord to lower to 3,000/mth and give me 13th month free.
So I take that 3000 free month, divide by 13, and in essence my net effective rent was lower from 3300 to about $2,770/mth after pricing in the concession. Is my math right here?
Posted by Ana Maria
Wed Feb 17th, 2010 04:18 PM
of course - yes - forgive me, I know it as 'net effective' rent roll (and yes, it was late in the eve for me *smile*)
VERY hard to track ... but very important, of course - just wrote about it to our clients actually. We discussed that several new rental buildings are popping up (808 Columbus, and Ohm, to name two) If I may plagiarize myself:
... Translated, this means that when your lease renews, those free months’ worth of rent that made the apartment affordable one year can add up to a net effective rent increase of 15% or more. Particularly if the landlord is willing to amortize the free months over the course of the year to lower your net effective rent, you will be feeling less of a pinch on your wallet for a full 12 months before the reality of the actual rental price kicks in once the concession buzz wears off. Make sure you can actually afford to live in the apartment at the actual rental price, unless you’re willing to move when the lease renewal rolls around. (Don’t forget to incorporate associated moving costs in your overall calculations.) Further, if you are lucky enough to have those juicy concessions amortized and are paying the net effective rent price, try to negotiate the rent increase to be based off of this amount rather than the official rent.
Posted by Thisson
Wed Feb 17th, 2010 04:24 PM
Was that for the 2-bedroom on 96th?
Posted by Ana Maria
Wed Feb 17th, 2010 04:52 PM
My comments weren't apartment specific, per se; rather making sure tenants walk into concession-heavy buildings well prepared for year 2 (should they look to stay for more than 1 year).
808 Columbus is one of soon-to-be four massive rental buildings all part of one big complex. ranging between 97th and 100th Streets.
Posted by Fred
Thu Feb 18th, 2010 09:50 AM
I think landlords are setting themselves up for trouble by assuming they are going to get their contracted lease rate when they roll. It's a game of smoke and mirrors they are playing with the lenders. The lender agrees to meet the market by pretending that the market is irrational and still worth the contracted rental amount. This is an example of one of the major issues facing real estate over the medium term - that NOI projections are coming way down. In addition to concessions, there is zero visibility on increases in general, including basic inflation-related pass through that are very real for the landlord and most importantly interest rates. 808 Columbus, while nice to have Whole Foods, is a really good example of projects that will be chronically distressed because their underwriting projections were simply way too optimistic.
Posted by anonymous
Thu Feb 18th, 2010 12:19 PM
I was curious about the Columbus Sq. project especially reading about the NYT fluff piece on the project. Not the best location, even if the building is nice. They have been advertising 2.5 to 3 mo. free rent since it has opened. Does anyone know where signed leases are actually landing? Also, 2600 for a studio there is definitely not going to hold on renewal considering the alternatives at better locations in the neighborhood.
I'm sure the lenders are well aware given the 3 mo. rent reduction is very publicly advertised. They're probably crossing their fingers and hoping that the lease renewal roll toward the "base" rent.
Posted by Ana Maria
Thu Feb 18th, 2010 02:03 PM
Anon - I actually just visited the complex with some clients. They are NOT offering 2-3 months on all units. Past, I believe the 23rd floor, it turns to 1 month. It seems that the rent itself is non-negotiable (at least as per my experience); concessions only come in the form of free rent and paying the broker fee.
I will say that prices aren't cheap at all for the neighborhood. I was slighly disappointed with the gym, considering the sheer number of tenants. The pool was nice, as was the kid's play-room ... and some of the views are killer.
As Fred notes, however, it will be SO interesting to see what happens to rents next year.
Posted by International Property
Fri Feb 19th, 2010 05:45 AM
Good thing you have done here, Thanks! This is a pretty up beat post about real estate that I am quoted in.
Posted by coach handbags
Thu Aug 12th, 2010 09:53 PM
‘nothing new here, but we couldn’t emphasize it more. All cash deals enable you to have the speed and ease of closing that any distressed seller will be looking for.