Manhattan Markets: Things Keep Moving Along....

Great charts that certainly tell a story, thanks Noah! Can you provide any more details on what kind of apps you will launch?

thx paulb! i would like to but i have to keep quiet for now, until we get the whole project done...sorry!

I know what I am about to ask is going to create lots of chatter, both positive and negative. But I'm asking Noah's opinion even though I'm sure whatever he says will invite lots of other opions, ah free speech, gotta luv it.
What do you think about all the chatter in the media these past few days about Manhattan has further to fall pricewise. I guess do you feel it was a dead cat bounce vs a real bottom that we saw. I ask because I am certainly nervous since I signed a contract on a place just last week.

Chitchat - I won't answer for Noah, but I will tell you to rest easy. Provided this isn't your first time on this or some other real estate site, and you've taken the advice about not biting off more than you can chew, having a long-term horizon, etc., be excited about your purchase. Everyone has some degree of buyer's remorse. We purchased a 2-bed on the UES for $245K about 6 years ago, knew we had gotten a SICK deal, and even then, walked around glum for weeks following the contract concerned that we many have overpaid, or caught the top of the market. You are living what most can only dream about - owning a piece of the greatest city on earth. Congrats, and hope you have a speedy close!

chitchat - its a fair questions..first off, I was initially WRONG on the sustainability of this improvement trend if you go back to say April, May or so. It was around June or so that I started to understand the major carry trade that was the foundation for the reflation trade that trickled into the manhattan real estate market...prior to that, I thought it was a bear rally, nothing more. Clearly it was something else that led to a 62% equity rally and a huge rally in all asset classes really.

However, its the foundation of this rally that I question. Mainly:

1. carry trade our way out of this mess in all asset classes?
2. fed guarantees on everything
3. accounting gimmickery for banks
4. off balance sheet/m2m rule changes
5. zero interest rate policy
6. stimulus every
7. tax credits/incentives pulling demand forward

etc..you get the picture. Now, here is the deal. I DO think that the fierce adjustment we had was the painful one. But I do think there will be unintended consequences for all the above I just noted, in the years to come. You cant have easy policy, low rates, fiscal stimulus, etc.. forever..and the reversal of all this will cause consequences that are not politically acceptable right now or intended. This will likely cause a more drawn out but slow adjustment over the next few years..who knows exactly how long. Whether ts regulation, higher taxes, higher rates, soveregn defaults, bond market collapse, currency crisis, I cant predict exactly. But the credit crisis's main wrath of fury is behind us and armageddon is off the table ---> therefore I think the huge drop down in pricing we saw, while healthy and painful for many, is over and done with.

Which leaves what I just described as a more drawn out period that could certainly affect affordability in this market. But nothing goes in straight line and there will be trades at every price along the way!

Assuminmg you bought for right reasons, did your diligence, found a place your happy with, could afford it, and got a market rate for it, I say be happy you didnt buy at the peak before the sharp adjustment down. The best deals were those few trades in early feb/march/april last year, but there were only 800-1000 of those and who know how many of those buyers walked away from and/or couldnt close on. So trust me, not many out there got the best deals and there was plenty of risk when pulling the trigger back then. I would be confident in the asset if you have a longer timeline to own and meet the criteria I mentioned to start this last paragraph!

good luck!!

LOVE THE CHARTS! GIVE US MORE!

I respect your analysis and opinion greatly but a few holes to be poked in your argument. And please correct my thinking where I am wrong. Noah, you have said it in the past when trying to determine trends and pricing and where should places actually trade versus 3 months ago, 6 months ago, 2 years ago etc and how you look for comps. You have said it yourself that apartments entering contract does not constitute a sale. Also where the apt is listed does not mean that is where it went to contract. We don't know the price. As you pointed out above it could be at the ask, 10% below, or even 10% above due to bidding war. In this market i'm going to make the assumption (wrong or right) that on average the final sale price is below ask. The question is how much below? So the fact that contracts are being signed at a greater pace to me doesn't necessarily imply that things are getting better (unless you are a broker and just want to close deals regardless of price) from a pricing perspective/investment potential. Maybe things are finally going to contract because the seller hit bids 10, 15, 20% below the latest ask? And if those price cuts are what it takes to get deals done it doesn't seem like that is good news b/c there is still a lot of inventory out there with sellers acting like a deer in headlights hoping this will all just go away and aren't ready to accept reality and start hitting those bids (which over time will only force pricing even lower). We saw relatively drastic price cuts but never saw the volume so in my opinion we have yet to experience the capitulation trade. Unless you bought at the height in 2007 many people have yet to have that "sick to their stomach" feeling like their world is collapsing around them and they can't unload their apartment. I am in the camp that there are plenty of those soon to be sellers out there hoping this will all just go away and they better stock up on some pepto soon.

Noah - How would you define the "longer term time horizon to own" from here?

Anonymous - excellent excellent excellent comment. Thank you!

Let me start by re-iterating two sentences from the discussion above:

1. "For now clearly buyers and sellers are agreeing somewhere out there - I'm just trying to figure out where!"

2. "Now please don't mis-interpret this discussion to mean bids are coming in at peak levels again, they are not - or that every development is saved and no good deals are happening!"

Now, I think your comment is mainly target to this statement I did make:

"Rather, we can't deny the progressive improvement in bids over the past 11 months and the fact that desirable properties that are priced right are moving in today's market!"

So its the improvement in bids from say 10-12 months ago that perhaps you are questioning. Now, I am just one man that discusses things here on UrbanDigs based on what I see over time, talks with colleagues and sales managers, and interpretations of data that I consider to be as close to real time as I can get.

I just cant disagree with your following statement:

"Maybe things are finally going to contract because the seller hit bids 10, 15, 20% below the latest ask? And if those price cuts are what it takes to get deals done it doesn't seem like that is good news b/c there is still a lot of inventory out there with sellers acting like a deer in headlights hoping this will all just go away and aren't ready to accept reality and start hitting those bids (which over time will only force pricing even lower)."

100% agree! But then again, I am seeing some properties that are not hitting bids that low - goes to say this market is bigger and more complex than any of us! Ill never claim I own this market and know everything, no way!!!!

As for the capitulation trade, careful not to analyze real estate like you would a liquid equity market where distress and fear is accompanied by a surge in volume. Real estate is a very illiquid market and in my humble opinion, its the lack of liquidity that usually results in the types of trades that a equity trader might consider a capitulation trade. Certainly you wont see a capitulation in real estate when there are tons of buyers out there with sales volume surging.

There certainly are sellers out there that find themselves in tough tough situations, trying to minimize a loss or break even. In these cases, denial can take you a looong way and sellers can find ways to 'wait it out'. As for the sick in the stomach feeling, I must say, in my opinion this market did in fact see this for about 3-5 months between say DEC 2008 - MARCH 2009, however, and I am guilty here too, I think many expected a much longer period of illiquidity and distress sales than what actually occurred and is shown clearly by the data I presented above.

Nevertheless, like I said, not everything sells at once and its very relative. In the end, im one man trying to figure out whats going on out there but I will always admit this market is way too big and complex for me to be a maven for! Ill just try my best to interpret whats going on, as it happens, as best I can! Always subject to your arguments and/or opinions.

Love it! Thanks anon for the comment! Please keep em coming.

vikinggal - prob OVER the average time a property is normally held..so around 7 years and over...whats the average prior to the housing meltdown? 6-7 years? I would think that went down as foreclosures spiked with this crisis.

If you chart it out against a rent analysis, putting aside buy/rent ratios here, at some point over time the lines will cross favoring the buy side

this assumes a normal rate of appreciation, tax rate, economy, inflation, etc..nothing in the last 5-7 years was normal though

"You are living what most can only dream about - owning a piece of the greatest city on earth."

Too funny.

Noah, Anon back, how can you say "Certainly you wont see a capitulation in real estate when there are tons of buyers out there with sales volume surging."? What would you consider 2006/2007 when new developments were being sold out at/above ask prior to completion and everything was going to a bidding war with multiple interested parties? NYC was as liquid as anything else at the time and volume was way up (given the # of shares/apartments outstanding). It was the definition of "Irrational Exuberance". In fact comparing NYC real estate to the equity market was and is very relevant at this time. Where there once was liquidity there is no more. In my opinion the capitulation trade will take place (more than the 3 month window we may have already seen) because just like the equity market most of the time the capitulation stems from the retail investor (not the professional) and fear/emotion. Since most homeowners are neither traders nor professionals and riddled with emotion just by human nature there will come the time where the seller(s) can not take it any more. Yes I am a bear and I see further weakness in our economy and the little, separate economy we all call home (NYC). Noah, keep up the good work (rare for your profession as well as mine - wall st). I can't wait to see how this all works out.

Anonymous - well maybe I mis-interpeted one of your original statements in regards to the capitulation trade you are talking about.

You said: "We saw relatively drastic price cuts but never saw the volume so in my opinion we have yet to experience the capitulation trade."

I interpret that to mean that the capitulation trade or process never took place because there was NOT ENOUGH VOLUME to define it? Is this an accurate interpretation of that statement?

My statement was saying that a surge in sales volume and how I define a capitulation are inversely correlated when it comes to real estate - when volume plunges, that is when you see the distress really come out and the desperate/scared sellers hitting very low bids; as opposed to be positively related when discussing a capitulation in stocks puking up with a surge in sales volume.

As to 2006-2007, I would define that as EUPHORIA! That 12 month period leading up to what I define as the peak of this market (contracts signed between say early 2007 and fall 2007) was the euphoric phase that marked the top of the bubble in real estate; fueled by the bubble in credit of course that ultimately busted with both equities and real estate in Manhattan following after. As for liquidity, I see significantly more liquidity out there today than I did at this time last year heading into March of last year...but NOT nearly as much liquidity as there was from 2006-2007, as you mention.

Im a bear as well in general, but not like I was in mid/late 2007 before the adjustment happened in this market. Therefore, Im not bullish, rather I consider myself less bearish than I was. I think we both share the same concerns on the foundation of this so called reflation recovery and issues that we face ahead of us.

Thanks for kind words about the site!

sorry anon, forgot the "NOT", in my "but NOT nearly as much liquidity as there was from 2006-2007, as you mention."

just updated.

Noah, your analysis confirm absolutely everything I've been seeing in the last month, including my visits with clients to a dozen open houses this past weekend. One had gone under contract after months on the market and another had an accepted offer after a couple of weeks. Each was listed at more than $2 million. The market definitely has changed. The question is how long will the change last.

Thanks for sharing what you are seeing out there Malcom!....I also check with many colleagues who are top producers at their firms and sales managers I keep in touch with to see if they can confirm what I see out there too with my clients.

PS: I fixed your outgoing url that your name directed to, should work now...had an extra 'a' in the url

Noah-
Your posts and charts are on the money! I'm making appts for an all cash Condo buyer for this week...budget up to $2.5M...calling and emailing brokers with "active listings" for appts...keep hearing "contract out" "we just signed the contact today" "we have an accepted offer, check back next week" inventory is moving as we speak...

Volume does not equal demand. You can't say that increased sales volume is good for the market. Supply and demand rules - not supply and the number of trades. For every sell there is a buyer and a seller. Certainly you can look at the stock market and note that some of the worst days in history had huge volume. If volume equalled demand then all of the high volume days would be up days.

Don't get me wrong - the number of sales are notable but they are not indicative of demand. In Las Vegas there was a trend where for over 24 months the month over month number of transactions went up - but for that same 24 month period the average price went DOWN month over month. In Vegas the more units they sold the lower prices went.

My prediction is that the number of trades go up this year but prices go lower.

Douglas - about to head off to bed after a looong day, and will respond tomorrow, but my initial thought is that real estate sales data is big time lagging! And what volume index are we talking about here, pending sales index or actual closings?

Even case shiller index data methodology will show that there could be a lag of public record data for up to a few months and the data is subject to revisions.

Volume does not equal demand? Then what does? Maybe you should say, volume does not equal quality of demand! That I will buy into. But volume does equal interest and willingness of buyer and seller to have a meeting of minds. Anyway, I am not saying there is a 1:1 relationship between rising sales and rising prices, that is to miss the point entirely. The statement was regarding a 'capitulation' argument that didnt see the surge in sales volume for real estate. well in my opinion, the most distress comes with the least sales volume, when no bids are coming in. Making real estate market even more illiquid.

Clearly, sales volume increased as of June-Sept of 2009, but clearly prices are not UP from peak levels. Of course not. Rather they did improve from fear trades when volumes were lower, but lagging quarterly reports will be flawed and slow to catch this improvement! That I know. It was slow to catch the downtrend, and it will be slow to catch the improvement. I reported on the slowdown in Q3 2008, it took until Q1 2009 to see it in the reports. It may take until Q2/Q3 to see the improvement from a year prior. Time will tell. Lets see.

The real question is what is the closing price. Unfortunately we don't know that for a few months. My argument has been that in the boom RE was a "luxury good" - demand increased as price increased. Now RE is back to being a "normal good" - demand increases as price decreases.

The fact is noah your statement that march was a low is statistically false and misleading. The facts are since those closings, each quarterly report showed a DECREASE in prices. So you CANT have a low followed by decrease in prices.

You try to muddy this by using the word bid. That bids increased rather than prices. We know bids DID NOT increase if prices decreased in Q3 and Q4.

Then you try to cloak it by saying it was progressive. IT WASNT. Closed sales show a progressive DECREASE in prices since March!

Last you try to say the market lags. This is true for usually 3-4 months of lag. So if March was the low it means Q3 and Q4 should reflect this, being much later.

So if your point is the contracts signed in Nov, Dec, Jan you are betting are higher based on what you think you see, that is one thing. But it is poor practice and intellectually dishonest to say prices (or your unscientific word "bids") have increased without showing the closings to suggest this.

FACT: Prices have decreased each quarter since "deals" in March, so those obviously were not the best deals. People obviously got much better deals after that resulting in decreased prices of Q3 and Q4.

I don't know what has happened in the last 3 months. Sellers could have adjusted prices and that's why contracts are up. We could easily see another quarterly decrease in prices.

To suggest anything other than what is supported by closing data is low integrity unless you disclaim it explicitly, and mention you are basing your opinion of broker's statements which can be biased, and a statistically small sample. SO why even do it. Why not go off closings data? Maybe because NO COMPLETE closing data, which is the actual data, SUPPORTS ANYTHING YOU HAVE SAID REGARDING A PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN BIDS/PRICES. Yet you still say it over and over....

Plus you base the majority of the article on increase in contracts signed that either only you can see and/or that has happened for 1 WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How do you write an article as a trend based on one week !!!!!!!

Your own site has 7 day contracts at 172!!!!!

You say the new site you can see "about 222". What do you mean about? Why not exact! And then you go to this ridiculous statement...

"The point is there is action out there. Not everything sells at once and to see weekly contracts signed trends at or above 225 or so is very healthy"

First you say 222, which is not at or above 225, so we are not very healthy obviously. Then this is different from the data on your site saying 172. So maybe we are not as healthy!

AND THIRD THIS IS ONE WEEK!!!!!! One is by definition not a trend!!!!!!! Nothing is trending above 225.

So why spin these numbers by first inflating them 172 to 222, and then cherry picking one week out of the past 6 and writing a whole article about healthy contract signings!!!!

Look at the 30 day, that is a the closest thing to a trend!!!

IT HAS 700 for 30 days, or avg. of 175!!!!!!!! a week!!!!!!

So if anything the trend is going lower this week at 172!!!!!!

THE DATA DOESNT LIE!!!!!!! you say. There was no pick up!!!! The DATA on YOUR SITE shows a DECREASE or SLOW DOWN in the weekly contracts signed based on the 30 day trend!!!!!!!!!!

YOUR DATA DOESNT LIE. WHY NOT write a retraction and explain yourself to gain some credibility.

And dont say it was the 222 new data, because even if so one week if 50 more contracts signed IS NOT A TREND. AGAIN ONE IS NOT A TREND. At least wait 3 weeks of data (preferably that other can see that is not in direct contrast to your own site) to write an article

"Keeping it real" ...... come on.

jjfashion - ugh, here we go again...another sensationalist focusing 100% on a real time market observation using the quarterly reports to support their argument, that have proven time and again to be incredibly lagging.

So lets see here jjfashion:

COOP CONTRACT SIGNED JUNE 25th....
CLOSES SEPT 25th, after 3 months of CS....
PUBLIC RECORD CATCHES IT OCT 15th..proven lag of weeks to months for public record - go read Jonathan Millers methodology on how public record catches 70% or so of closings, the rest come later at a lag meaning reports should be revised

Q4 Catches OCT, NOV, DEC closings
Q4 report issued JAN 2nd, on last 3 months of closed caught sales....

JAN 2nd report includes deals signed sealed and delivered going way back in JUNE, JULY and AUG...possibly earlier for new dev signings that have delayed closings waiting for CoO...

Yea, no lag there! Get real jjfashion. Im out there and see it, clearly you are not and your analyzing and relying on amazingly lagging quarterly reports to prove what the market is like today...

puhleeaaase

MILLERSAMUEL METHODOLOGY:

"Quarterly Manhattan Market Overview: A quarterly analysis of co-op and condo sales in Manhattan. Unlike the stock markets, apartment sales data continues to fall in the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter."

http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/methodology.php

....at least get educated before shouting your mouth off and how these quarterly reports are organized and the nature of the data that makes up the report!

"THE DATA DOESNT LIE!!!!!!! you say. There was no pick up!!!! The DATA on YOUR SITE shows a DECREASE or SLOW DOWN in the weekly contracts signed based on the 30 day trend!!!!!!!!!!"

clearly you cant read either and dont realize that my new data systems and charts in this post are fed by real time broker status updates using a connection directly with the REBNY broker sharing distribution hub...the widget on urbandigs.com since NOV 2007 that you are following is fed by streeteasy, and I cant control the quality of that data and or how certain metrics are calculated..

as it says in my static ABOUT box above the widget:

UrbanDigs LLC is now its own brokerage and member of the Real Estate Board of NY. The company is in development of a suite of analytical tools and other information centric software for enhanced analysis of Manhattan's residential marketplace. UrbanDigs expects to be in live customer beta testing by Q1 2010.

jjfashion should be ignored. Ramblings of a person who can't read.

JJFashion needs an enema....

Noah,
I wish I could post a chart showing Vegas sales data from Oct 2006 to Oct 2008 but I don't have one - I watch their market but not enough to keep all of the historical data.

I do have a chart here http://vegas-report.com/market-trends.htm which shows that in Jan 08 the Median price was $249,900 then Feb 246,500 March $243,169 each month going lower with Oct at $190,000 at the same time the number of sales go up every month - Jan 983 then Feb 1,098 up to Oct where is was 2,718. So month over month sales TRIPLED and yet prices fell EVERY month. And the trend lasted longer than 2 years. Today sales volume is constant and prices there are still going down.

Had you listened to a broker in Jan 08 and bought because "activity in the market" was increasing your home would be worth about 50% less than when you bought it as the median price of a home there is now $125,000. Cont.

Cont.
In stock trading they have what is called "up volume" and "down volume" - they track the two because they are a better indicator of the supply demand curve. (up volume is when a buyer pays the offer - down volume when a seller hits someone's bid) Again, let me reiterate, every time there is a sale there is one seller and one buyer. People too often only focus on the fact that someone out there "bought" a house and that equals demand. Why not just focus on the fact that someone sold a house? That a transaction meant there was huge selling pressure?

Now as I said before transaction numbers are important they just don't equal demand. What a sale does is LOWERS SUPPLY. Lower supply means rising prices (generally) and that's why so many get confused. This also means that the number of units for sale is an important indicator of price. The problem (especially in NYC) is finding the real available unit number. No number in NY real estate is gamed more than the available units (I even think it's more gamed than the sq footage number). It's gamed because it's so important.

You ask what a good indicator of demand is and I'd say the best that I know of is the number of people attending open houses. If I owned a sales brokerage company I would make my agents tally the total number of people who came to our open houses over the weekend. Then each month circulate that number to my agents. It's a good but not perfect indicator of demand.

Douglas - thanks for the charts. Let me just repeat what I said in the comment above:

"Maybe you should say, volume does not equal quality of demand! That I will buy into. Anyway, I am not saying there is a 1:1 relationship between rising sales and rising prices, that is to miss the point entirely."

I agree with you that rising sales volume does not equal rising prices, and is not a 1:1 relationship. Rather I would say volume does not equal the quality of demand, but does tell you something on where buyers and sellers are..I think we are pretty much agreeing here, and I agree with your statement in the contd section of "Now as I said before transaction numbers are important they just don't equal demand"

AGREE! It means there is action out there! And that is what I was saying in this discussion. Easy credit also means the potential for rising prices, very low rates also means the potential for rising prices, human nature and speculation of housing as a rising asset class also means the potential for rising prices...to compliment your constrained supply statement.

As for OH traffic, usually brokerage firms do try to tally and track this, but most brokers dont find the time or motivation to fill in the paperwork! So, how reliable are those surveys if say only 40% or less of brokers are sharing that information?

Again, thx for comment!!!

Someone arguing how the improvement from last March was NOT progressive in nature over time?

Explain this full ASK offer sale, and closing:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385758-coop-5-east-75th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

02/19/2009 Listed by Elliman at $1,900,000.
10/29/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/19/2010 Listing sold.
01/19/2010 Sale recorded for $1,900,000.

Over 8 months with NO price cut, then in Mid October, they get full ask! That is a perfect example of how bids progressively improved over time from those March trades when systemic risk was on the table. Im sure they got bids lower but seller didnt budge until it hit their number some 240+ days later.

This is silly, I could cherry pick one sale and show how it dropped 20 percent since march. That's why quarterly data is used, so one or ten or twenty, ect. listings don't give you the wrong impression.

That's why I used quarterly data. Because it gives a better overall sense.

I agreed as you see below that the market lags. My point is by Q4 with lag there should be some data to support your claim. And the data shows prices lower.
"Last you try to say the market lags. This is true for usually 3-4 months of lag. So if March was the low it means Q3 and Q4 should reflect this, being much later."

Also, why didn't you address my comment about your cherry picking one week of contracts signed and sensationalizing a "trend".

That is true sensationalism, writing a whole artice about how healthy the market is.

Don't mean to offend you, I used to value and respect your site and am asking these questions as an attempt to regain that respect

Figured you would use the lag excuse.

Bottomline: By you own statement june, july, aug deals are reflected in Q4

So march, april, may deals reflected in Q3 report

Q4 millersamuel report (which you referenced) shows decrease in prices from Q3.

Conclusion: june, july, aug deals were at a lower price than march, april, may.

So there was no progressive increase at least through august.

Yet you say there was.

Let's keep it simple: Answer this.
1) What data manhattan wide data (not 10 cherry picked listings) can you use to back up that the lowest deals
were in March?

2) Why do you link the streeteasy data if you don't think its valid? And what is the 30 day or 45 total of contracts
Signed data from you new tool reflect? Does it show a 225 per week trend. Or was that just one week of 225 and you called that a trend?

3). I am very curious if you called one week a trend? So please don't reply without responding to this.

I am happy to answer any questions you have

Amazing quote from you....

"clearly you cant read either and dont realize that my new data systems and charts in this post are fed by real time broker status updates using a connection directly with the REBNY broker sharing distribution hub...the widget on urbandigs.com since NOV 2007 that you are following is fed by streeteasy, and I cant control the quality of that data and or how certain metrics are calculated.."

Amazing quote from your website printed a few inches from this statement....

"URBANDIGS MANHATTAN REAL ESTATE DATA"
1-DAY 7-DAY 30-DAY
NEW LISTINGS 35

Are you kidding me noah. forget the line below this saying data supplied from streeteasy.... Why do you call it "URBANDIGS Manhattan real estate data"

Why not "Streeteasy manhattan real estate data" or "manhattan real estate data"?

WHY INCLUDE THE URBANDIGS.....

Own up...

You post your website, you blog, you have a comments section... I would hope you are welcome to being real

talk about sensationalism, you claim a trend after one week, now that's sensationalism

man you are on a roll.

1. Weekly TALLY (better?) at 300 CONTRACT SIGNED NOW: First off, the context that I said trends in was this: "Not everything sells at once and to see weekly contracts signed trends at or above 225 or so is very healthy"

'weekly contract signed trends' - when the heck did I ever say anything more than that. I even said, "I wouldn't expect this pace of sales to sustain itself for that long, maybe a few more months", after that! You want to call it a weekly TALLY, fine! Then you started bugging out because I had weekly totals at 222, 3 under the 225 level..WHOA MAMA! Talk about a huge gap. Because of the surge in contract signed status updates by brokers real time in the past 3 days alone, the weekly TALLY is now up to 300...it was 270 this morning, 282 this afternoon, 291 this evening and 300 right now. You did recall me telling you that my new system is REAL TIME and we get updates 6-7 times a day. So as the status updates REAL TIME are caught, the weekly TALLY increases. So its now at 300! Do you think that is worth at least noting? Do you even see the value of collecting real time broker status updates?

2. QTR-QTR IMPROVEMENT in PRICES: I trust Streeteasy reports over the in house brokerage firm quarterly reports, because SE has a team working on data accuracy and quality on salary.

If you look at their Q4 Report you WILL NOTICE a qtr-qtr improvement in price. But why read that right? A) we established you cant read and B) it goes against your entire initial argument. But in case you want to learn to read and see for yourself:

http://docs.streeteasy.com/market_reports/2009Q4_Report.pdf

"Overall average and median prices, which include condo and co-op resales and new developments, have continued to decline from a year ago, about 7.8% and 10.0%, respectively. However, since last quarter, price gains were made in overall average and median prices, about 5.5% and 2.0%, respectively."

You should look y-o-y to filter out seasonality, but since your entire argument is questioning WHERE are the QTR-QTR improvements in the reports, Im sure you'll just hit the IGNORE button in your head...BAM, its right there!

Even Corcoran showed a 1% increase in Avg PPSF qtr-qtr, although a continued decline in median prices

3. You want examples? So should I just stop working and spend the next week off trying to convince an idiot more ways he is wrong? No. So Ill give you a few examples:

a) 490 WEA - 9B classic 7 sold at 1.5M after a March 2009 contract signed:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/283224-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Now we got another classic 7, one floor higher in contract with asking price of 2.475m and no price cut in last 7 months. I know that seller wouldnt accept under 2M, so Im guessing they got 2.1m or so.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/391368-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

Clear enough? Another?

b) 1165 Park Ave - classic 8 high floor, open views, renovated, sold for 2.8M, 695,000 below the last ask entered in contract in April.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211308-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

Show me another classic 8 on Park Ave, fully renbovaed, high floor for that price right now?

9C, 6 floors lower is asking 3.995m, high yes, but I bet it sells higher than 2.8m and that is 6 floors lower!

Another:

c) 5 E 75th - no price cut, couldnt sell for 8 months after listing last FEB, enters contract in Oct and closes at FULL ASK..I know they had lower offers in prior to this, in mid 2009, that were not accepted. Then they get full ask. What the hell do you call that? I decline in bids over time?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385758-coop-5-east-75th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

How many ways do I have to prove you wrong? Done! Go shout your mouth off as much as you want, your not worth my time. Especially after the SE report shows you the improvement in closing prices qtr-to-qtr, your initial argument. Give the brokerage firms one more qtr, and they should catch up too.

Plus, your talking to a guy that discussed the coming adjustment well in advance and discussed how trades were happening 15-20% below peak in late 2008, BEFORE the reports showed it. So I dont need to prove myself to you.

damn, jjfashion was just schooled!

jjfashion = bitter emotional sideliner who was and is priced out of the market and attacks Noah for not being a perma-bear.

LAST 7 DAYS contracts signed TALLY (wink, wink) now up to 321

Just a little note on real time broker status updates directly from REBNY broker sharing system. I dont follow the SE one anymore because I dont control their data. Rather, I use my new source direct from rebny broker sharing system because I know how much work we did the past 7-8 months to clean the data and calculate these metrics the right way with as little noise as possible

data can never be 100% perfect. no way. We notice things that are out of our control. For example, sometimes Corcoran/Elliman will hold up listings for manual review and quality checks before sending out to broker sharing systems. Nothing we can do or sharing system can do about it. Then after the checks, they will do a dump and inundate the system. So this example occurred yesterday and we got 443 Corcoran listings REMOVED from market in one dump. This was likely a tally from a week of activity that corcoran manually reviewed before releasing, and then dumped it at once. These are the things that happen out there that we cant control and a user may interpret this as our system is broker or something. Not the case, and something we have to deal with.

Then you got 100s of variations of individual listings that brokers, for whatever reason, update daily with alternative status's: i.e, contract signed to active to perm off market to active to contract signed to perm off market to active, etc. etc...every day it changes.

100s of variations of these that must be filtered out and accounted for properly. These are just some examples, dozens more, of things we had to work on and correct and adjust for. I cant believe the progress, but the system will never be 100% perfect. Unfortunately. But going from 70% to 90% or 95%, is a big leap in quality, and Im confident that is what we did. There will always be a few flaws and we continue to try to account/adjust for those.

jj??? where are you man? Have a break in between appointments, was hoping for a reply?

Especially the quarter-to-quarter improvement in prices that Streeteasy 4Q report clearly showed?

JJ SAYS: " The facts are since those closings, each quarterly report showed a DECREASE in prices. So you CANT have a low followed by decrease in prices.

You try to muddy this by using the word bid. That bids increased rather than prices. We know bids DID NOT increase if prices decreased in Q3 and Q4. "

NOAH SAYS: Once again, the SE Q4 report DID show an increase in prices from Q3 to Q4! So my statements are supported, and yours, well are not. In addition, clearly you are not a broker and you do not work full time with clients showing apartments, doing deals, submitting bids, talking to other brokers about where offers are for other properties, losing out to higher bids, etc..I am. I see it. After years of writing unbiased discussions and explaining the more difficult macro stuff for the average person dating to back to Fall of 2007, why do you not believe what I say?? You think I have an agenda? Why would I be bearish prior to the adjustment for so long then? And diss the weak dollar argument, and the foreigners will save us bullshit, and the island of manhattan is immune bullshit, over and over again and explain my argument?

First, I have a real job that means I can't spend each day reading yoru blog posts....sorry for the inconvenience but hopefully that means something to you.

Second, I see where I misunderstood your intention behind the word trend when you meant tally. However unless that is a broker term, it is definitely misleading. I hope you will admit that.

Third, why didnt you respond to my question about why you use the word "URBANDIGS NYC REALESTATE DATA" if that data you dont think is valid?

"I dont follow the SE one anymore because I dont control their data"

Then why do you not state that someplace, or at least TAKE YOUR NAME OFF THEIR DATA, so it is not misleading.

Why claim their data with this misleading headline to that category in bold?

TO be clear, you have to have some STANDARD or data that you use if you want to track trends. You can switch back and forth or it isnt accurate. Same with quarterly! You cant quote Millersamuel here and streeteasy there...

Fourth, you're right that street east showed evidence contrary to the data I showed from MillerSamuel, so now that you think you found 2 sources out of 5 that say an increase this data matters.

AS YOU SAID "I dont follow the SE one anymore because I dont control their data"

Sure you meant the contract data, but i guess you want us to believe their quarterly data is better.

You use millersamuel data in the past, and even if you average all the Q4 reports they show a decrease, so that is what I go by.

LAST....Here is the real flaw in your argument.

1) You use a GUESS that those listings closed above what your comparables sold for, so in essence it is meaningless. Just because you believe it doesnt make it so.

2) And I hope you get this because it will help: The problem with what you are doing, which is taking a small sample size and drawing conclusions, is that I could easily find more examples of listings that went into contract at a lower price than comparables in March.

THIS IS THE POINT of why cummulative reports are helpful. THEY INCLUDE ALL THE DATA!!!!! Not just the ones you want. Even if you found 50 to support you, that is not even a fraction of the overall market, so to extrapolate from small sample size is by definition flawed. Get it.

If you find 50 to support you and I find 60 to support me, the average (which is revealed in comprehensive reports, even monthly ones) would support me.

You are no different than a broker yapping about an increase in open house traffic, or one saying we have a few bids on this place you want to act quick.

Is it so hard to believe you might be benefiting from this, considering you have so many broker friends and connections, including that you are a broker regardless of how you spin that.

SO forget the 2 or 3 or 10 comparables, and use something comprehensive if you want to be taken seriously....

and if you want to reply, at least own up to why you use "URBANDIGS NYC DATA" over data that shows
new contract data MUCH LOWER than you say, by almost 100 contracts in a weekly average!!!!

And this from the trusted StreetEasy folks you have

i wonder what jjfashion's "real job" could actually be?

I now have pending sales at the 4,416 units level which means when Q1 2010's report is released in early April you will see a whopping surge when compared to Q1 2009's level!