Manhattan Q4: Sales Up 8.4% From Prior Year
A: A quick update for you guys on the number of sales with Q4 reports out a few days ago. The chart below should clearly show you the adjustment we had and the recent surge in contracts signed that has pending sales awaiting closing at healthy levels. I would expect the next quarter to continue to see closings above the 2,000 mark as the pipeline deals clear; and represent a HUGE percentage increase over Q1-2009 sales volume when its released early April.
Here are Manhattan Total Sales broken down by quarter for Co-ops + Condos:
*Data courtesy of MillerSamuel.com/Data
MillerSamuel's Q4 Report adds:
There were 2,473 sales in the current quarter, up 8.4% from the 2,282 sales in the prior year quarter and up 10.9% from the prior quarter. This level of activity was more than twice the 1,195 sales seen in the first quarter of 2009, which had been lowest level of sales in nearly 15 years. The return to more normal historical levels of sales activity was also reflected in the decline in inventory levels.Now, recall the lagging nature of sales that I discussed yesterday! This is why when I wrote my Q3 Manhattan Quarterly Sales update I stated:
"With many deals still in the pipeline, we might be able to beat Q4 2008's number when that data is released January 2nd, 2010."And that we did! At least hopefully you know I am not making this real time update stuff up here on UrbanDigs.com! This represents the first year-over-year increase in total sales since the adjustment started after 7 consecutive quarters of declining y-o-y sales volume!
The surge in activity continued into year end, although not quite the pace we saw in June-Early Aug, so expect another quarter or so of solid closing data when Q1 sales are released in early April. Currently, I have pending sales around the 4,684 units level.
Cheers all!
Posted by ul
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 05:53 PM
Stunning!
Q4 2009 is just shy of a record sales event for q4
You were right on!
Thx again for making all this information available.
Posted by Noah
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 06:11 PM
Yes it is, only shy of Q4 2008, the tail end of the peak year. Your very welcome ul...stay tuned, more to come in about 3-4 weeks.
Noah
Posted by Noah
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 06:17 PM
oops, sorry for typo in title..its UP 8.4% IN PRIOR YEAR QUARTER...fixed now. Sorry about that guys.
Posted by speechless
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 08:24 PM
"when you see the robin, spring has already sprung" -warren buffett
I call bottom.
Posted by Dws
Wed Jan 6th, 2010 09:43 PM
Yet medians will still be in decline for some time.
Posted by SteveF
Thu Jan 7th, 2010 09:07 AM
Luv that chart. Perfect visual for activity levels. Noah, do you have any details on the shadow inventory J Miller keeps commenting on?
Posted by Noah
Thu Jan 7th, 2010 10:20 AM
i have details on shadow inventory but my programming team and I are still tweaking and recomputing how we calculate shadow inventory...dont want to provide too many comments on it until its fully finished...a few weeks I think. When new site launches all this stuff will be provided to you and explained
what does JM say the shadow inventory level is and how is calculated?
Posted by Somewhere Else
Thu Jan 7th, 2010 01:27 PM
WHOAH, are 2009 sales way behind previous years.
What are we down, like 20%?
Posted by coach handbags
Thu Aug 12th, 2010 09:39 PM
There were 2,473 sales in the current quarter, up 8.4% from the 2,282 sales in the prior year quarter and up 10.9% from the prior quarter. This level of activity was more than twice the 1,195 sales seen in the first quarter of 2009, which had been lowest level of sales in nearly 15 years. The return to more normal historical levels of sales activity was also reflected in the decline in inventory levels.