Where is NYC Losing Jobs?

A: The Crains New York job-loss meter is now at 73,181 since the peak in August 2008 and last updated September 14th, 2009. The last NYC Comptroller Comments report had 2009 & 2010 estimated NYC job losses at 110K & 87K respectively. The job loss forecast by the Mayor is significantly higher at 172K and 129K respectively for 2009-2010. Anyway you cut it, its clear that NYC continues to be in a rising unemployment environment however my hope is that this fed engineered reflation environment helps to constrain future planned job cuts. If anything, maybe we can escape this severe crisis by seeing less jobs lost than originally announced by major firms. Time will tell if there are major consequences to these extreme policy actions. So where are jobs being cut the most?

First, here is the job-loss estimates state in "The Comptroller's Comments on the Adopted Budget for Fiscal Year 2010 and the Financial Plan for FYs 2010-2013" report issued two months ago:

The Crain's Job-Loss Meter sits at 73,181 and is calculated as follows:

CrainsNewYork.com's Job-Loss Meter has been updated to show the number of jobs lost in New York City since the peak of August 2008. Our base figure draws on Eastern Consolidated's seasonally adjusted analysis of New York Department of Labor monthly statistics.

We also update regularly to include layoffs in the city that have been announced to the Department of Labor to satisfy the Workers Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. According to WARN, all private employers who have 50 or more employees must file notice with the state at least 90 days before they intend to lay off 25 or more employees.

So, outside the financial sector where is NYC losing its jobs? Here are the Top 10...

1. MTA NYC Transit - 1,194
2. Caritas Healthcare (Mary Immaculate Hospital) - 1,045
3. MACY's - 1,012
4. Amalgamated Life - 466
5. American Transit - 400
6. Milford Plaza - 354
7. Cipriani Fifth Avenue / Rainbow Room - 261
8. Transit Facility Management Corp. - 248
9. Thacher Proffitt & Wood LLP - 243
10. Finley Fine Jewelry - 226

In the financial sector, I see an additional 4,937 jobs lost reported in this survey since peak employment hit in AUG of 2008. I know in June of last year there was an estimate of 22,000 jobs lost on wall street here in NYC, via Crains:

In the past year, 22,000 New Yorkers who work on Wall Street have lost their jobs, according to a Crain’s estimate. The city's Independent Budget Office forecasts that 33,300 Wall Street jobs—17% of the city's best-paid workforce—will disappear by next year.

Announced cutbacks at securities firms: total worldwide followed by estimated number in New York City:

CITIGROUP 15,900; 3,000
BEAR STEARNS 9,200; 7,000
UBS 7,000; 1,000
LEHMAN BROTHERS 6,400; 2,000
MERRILL LYNCH 5,200; 2,000
MORGAN STANLEY 4,400; 2,000
J.P. MORGAN CHASE 4,100; 1,500
BANK OF AMERICA 3,700; 1,000
GOLDMAN SACHS 1,500; 500
WACHOVIA 1,400; 1,000
CREDIT SUISSE 1,300; 750
DEUTSCHE BANK 500; 250

I am hoping it is not that high and I don't have an exact number on it today. Does anybody else know of an outside source for where wall street job losses are today? With a fed reflation strategy in full force and a dramatic improvement in credit, hopefully the dire expectations for total job losses made last year will prove to be too pessimistic. What would be interesting to know is whether or not securities firms adjusted their planned layoffs from previous announcements!

As good as the equity market is performing and the things that is telling us about the near term, mainstreet will continue to FEEL pressured as consumers continue to save and repair balance sheets. Let us not forget that the foundation of many balance sheets was in real estate and homeowners did take a 20-30% haircut, depending on price point, on their largest held asset that was likely further hurt by equity taken out during the credit boom. Lower asset prices + higher principal owed can be a crimp on any lifestyle that one got used to in the old days.

Stocks are a proxy for everything and right now credit has improved dramatically; something you can't deny. What I mean is, even CMBS AAAs, series 1, can't rally much more because the bids are close to par right now - around 93/94. Series 5 CMBS AAAs are around the low 80s. CMBS AAs are tougher to call but they are not a whole lot of the notional outstanding. AAAs are about 80% of the notional outstanding or so and tell you the clearest bigger picture of the perceived health of commercial real estate.

In short, worries about commercial real estate being the next shoe to drop is just not hitting the bids on derived AAA securities. Instead, bids for CMBS AAA have rallied dramatically along with the improvement in credit as a result of extreme fed policies and liquidity measures. If there is a problem ahead of us, we will see it here first and right now it just ain't there! I'll do a separate piece on this later.

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