Manhattan Charts / UrbanDigs LLC Its Own Brokerage

Posted by urbandigs

Thu Aug 20th, 2009 09:26 AM

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A: UrbanDigs Manhattan Charts that follow total inventory / price reductions / new listings / contracts signed are now fixed and working again. We apologize for the delay. The charts tell the same story that is being reported here in regards to the front lines of Manhattan real estate: it is still active out there, fewer new listings are hitting the marketplace which is in line with seasonality trends, inventory as a result has come down, and contracts signed trends are still active although down from the levels seen in May & June. Lets get right into it.

As was announced in The Real Deal article last week, UrbanDigs is now its own entity!! UrbanDigs LLC will be doing business as UrbanDigs Analytics & Consulting and is currently in development of a suite of analytical tools for enhanced analysis of Manhattan's residential marketplace. We expect launch and BETA testing to begin in Q1 2010. I would love to say it will be sooner, but Id rather be conservative.

My partner Jeff Bernstein, an investor in UrbanDigs, will be an integral part of this new project. "We expect radical changes to the New York City residential real estate brokerage market, driven by the Internet and the new realities of New York City's most important asset class", says Mr. Bernstein.

Mr. Bernstein adds, "Already an acknowledged thought leader on New York City residential real estate with a focus on transparency, UrbanDigs hopes to be a catalyst for change through the roll out of information centric software tools, market data/analysis and a la carte consulting and education services to the residential markets. UrbanDigs will enter alpha test of its first set of tools within six months and expects to be in live customer beta testing by the first quarter of 2010. Other tools and services will be rolled out on a continuous release basis, thereafter."

Certainly exciting times. The charts we display now is only a fraction of what we hope to offer in the very near future, to analyze and interpret trends as they happen here in Manhattan. So lets get right to it. Here is a look at Manhattan Total Inventory trends over the past 6 months:



The combination of seasonality, removal of listings, fewer new listings hitting the marketplace and above normal activity for this time of year are all contributing to the decline of total active inventory. For now our system only goes back 6 months but our new system will certainly expand time coverage.

Moving on to the weekly moving averages (to remove spikiness of data) of New Listings vs Contracts Signed trends:



I see a chart like the one above and it reminds me just how valuable having access to real time analytics could be for buyers & sellers of Manhattan real estate. Buying when fear is high, transactions are low (represented by the wide gap above in FEB/MAR) and supply is adding pressure to the sellers certainly can be looked upon as a contrarian move that in hindsight usually turns out to be a great opportunity.

As you can see the gap between new listings hitting the market and the pace of contracts being signed has narrowed significantly over the past 5 months. This is one reason why buyers who did not pull the trigger yet may have noticed some of their top value listings go into contract. As I stated 10 days ago in my quick update, "The market is still considerably more active than it usually is for this time of year yet, it doesn't seem as crazy as it was during the months of May & June". This statement still stands today.

Make no mistake about it, lower prices were the main catalyst to the surge in buyer activity. While the equity rally helped in boosting confidence and removing the Armageddon fears, it was the wave down to the first comfort zone that was most responsible for the activity over the past 3-4 months. Pricing is still the key to moving property and just because activity has been solid doesn't mean sellers should expect near peak level prices again - if you price right you will move your unit, if you don't you will find bids coming in closer to comfort zone discounted levels. More on this another day.