Fed Day
A: Markets will be very slow until 2:15PM when the fed will announce their NON MOVE and issue the more important accompanying statement.
No way the fed raises rates. Expect ZIRP for at least another 2-3 quarters until unemployment shows signs of stabilization. Things to look for in the statement:
1) any verbiage on future purchases of MBS, up to $1.25Trln in MBS and $200Bln in agency debt - extension of quantitative easing policy
2) any verbiage on future Treasury purchases, up from the $300Bln they announced already - extension of quantitative easing policy
3) any verbiage on signs of economic stabilization - dont expect the fed to say anything about growth given the near term uncertainty
4) any verbiage on inflation - doubtful if we see anything here other than the 'subdued' remark from last time, deflation is still the bigger threat
5) any verbiage on downside risks - perhaps a change, but doubtful. Watch out for pace of contraction statements that may actually buoy stocks
6) any verbiage on household spending, saving or net worth changes
This statement will likely have a bigger impact on the US dollar and dollar denominated plays such as metals and oil, then the overall equity markets. Just my opinion.
Yours?
Posted by In Debt We Trust
Wed Jun 24th, 2009 12:57 PM
I'm trying to play it safe by shorting the vix. It's unlikely that anything the Fed says will RAISE volatility.
Posted by office-noah
Wed Jun 24th, 2009 01:28 PM
well they certainly wont disrupt things or send markets tanking! I think the action will be in metals/oil and other dollar plays. I think the volatility, if any, will come in fx markets.
if they get aggressive with QE in the statement, the dollar may tank. But deep down I think they are SAVING THAT LAST BULLET for when they will need it more. Like later this year
Posted by ComethMoney
Wed Nov 4th, 2009 07:01 PM
I really don't have any extensive opinions to state for this post, personally. However, over time, I believe something good is bound to happen in all of this. Hey, I'm just an overly positive person.