Fed Day

A: Markets will be very slow until 2:15PM when the fed will announce their NON MOVE and issue the more important accompanying statement.

No way the fed raises rates. Expect ZIRP for at least another 2-3 quarters until unemployment shows signs of stabilization. Things to look for in the statement:

1) any verbiage on future purchases of MBS, up to $1.25Trln in MBS and $200Bln in agency debt - extension of quantitative easing policy
2) any verbiage on future Treasury purchases, up from the $300Bln they announced already - extension of quantitative easing policy
3) any verbiage on signs of economic stabilization - dont expect the fed to say anything about growth given the near term uncertainty
4) any verbiage on inflation - doubtful if we see anything here other than the 'subdued' remark from last time, deflation is still the bigger threat
5) any verbiage on downside risks - perhaps a change, but doubtful. Watch out for pace of contraction statements that may actually buoy stocks
6) any verbiage on household spending, saving or net worth changes

This statement will likely have a bigger impact on the US dollar and dollar denominated plays such as metals and oil, then the overall equity markets. Just my opinion.

Yours?

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