Manhattan Inventory Trends NOV 2007 - Present
A: Many asked me where Manhattan total inventory came from, y-o-y changes, longer term trends, etc.. We launched the chart system in November using Streeteasy data, however UrbanDigs Charts only goes back 6 months. You guys will have to deal with this for a while longer, but I promise you that I have grander plans to improve transparency for Manhattan buyers & sellers. Hopefully by fall of 2009 we will be ready to launch a suite of new data tools for you guys. For now, here is all the data I have for total inventory showing a whopping 79% increase in total inventory year over year. However, that stat could be a bit misleading as Streeteasy may have had less reach for all active listings here in May 2008, compared to today. Nevertheless, the trend is clear.
According to my widget, which:
a) deletes all duplicate listings
b) only for island of Manhattan
c) excludes listings with no exact address
d) includes coops, condos, condops, townhouses
e) streeteasy took years to expand their listings' reach, so earlier data may not have had the reach that today's data has; please keep in mind when analyzing year-over-year percentage changes
f) streeteasy data is ONLY as accurate as the real estate agent that updates/edit's the listing; in the end, maintaining quality of data is an ongoing project
According to the data from today, it seems year over year inventory rose by about 79%:
MARCH 23, 2008 - 6,121 listings
MARCH 23, 2009 - 10,965 listings
Posted by anonymous
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 11:59 AM
Your price-cut # is consistently incorrect. If you go to Streeteasy, you can see have many price cuts in last 24 hours and it is greater than what you report
Posted by HT
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 12:05 PM
THX!
Posted by soon2b20k
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 12:30 PM
That's a beauty.. thanks Noah!
Posted by anonymous
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 01:55 PM
You might want exclude listings that listed date is over 90 days with no price adjustments. Streeteasy has an amazing amount of stale data or delusional owners and/or brokers.
Posted by AvUWS
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 04:38 PM
I wouldn't touch it. There were delusional owners on the way up too. keep the selection sets the same unless you want to adjust the data in the past as well.
Posted by Noah
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 04:47 PM
nah, you cant do that unless its an option on the side, to shadow out listings that were not internally updated say for past 45 days, and may not be available anymore but is still listed because agent never updated.
Posted by Noah
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 06:48 PM
HT - yes I know. I will have to talk to them about that. Thanks. been a bit busy lately with clients
Posted by MeekSheep
Mon Mar 23rd, 2009 07:34 PM
While I do forsee Wallstreet continuing to lose jobs what do you think the affect of the new government bad-asset plan will have on institutional investors? Will it have any indirect affect on the NY area market? Case in point I'm wondering what is going to be happening with all those bad or soon-to-be-bad CMBS. If you can buy up a non-performing loan fully levered with no downside risk, use money saved to finish a project, sell the units for profit will it flood the market with more homes or will it have a stabilizing effect?
Posted by uws
Tue Mar 24th, 2009 08:04 AM
Does the inventory listing data include new construction? "existing" home sales / "existing" inventory is a key metric. The new product overhang can be viewed separately. The new product listings seem a little arbitrary, based on the marketing strategies of the respective projects.
In any case, historically in many markets, once inventory spikes up past 6 mos., it takes years, until inventory comes back below that level, for appreciatoin to resume. We are looking at a very long haul to get there in NYC, and one should view activity surges in the mean time as head fakes.
Thanks for the great information.