Inman Real Estate CONNECT NYC
A: Inman Real Estate Connect conference is back in New York City January 7th - January 9th. The event takes place at the New York Marriott Marquis Times Square. Continuing on with the success of July's heated housing debate, the Bull vs Bear debate will tackle what may be in store for 2009. I hope you can register and make it to the conference and this panel.
The last BULL vs BEAR debate (click link for post on discussions held at the last conference), held in San Francisco in July, saw Bill from Calculated Risk, Yves from NakedCapitalism, John from ShadowStats, Avram Goldman, Dottie Herman and myself go at it for about an hour.
Here is the info for next weeks conference:
Wednesday, Jan 7th, 3:45 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.
Bulls vs. Bears: The Great Housing Market Collapse
2008 was a tough year for real estate. Is 2009 going to be any better? Hear from these leading market watchers
Panelists:
Noah Rosenblatt, Founder, UrbanDigs.com
Barry Ritholtz, Chief Market Strategist, Ritholtz Research & CEO; Director of Equity Research, Fusion IQ
Carter Murdoch, SVP, Marketing and Compliance Executive, Bank of America
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior VP of Research, National Association of REALTORS
BR we all know from The Big Picture & Fusion IQ, I never met Carter Murdoch before so I look forward to that, and I never met Lawrence either but, ummm, my advice to him would be..."take a few shots before coming to the panel!". The NAR has not had the best calls during the course of this national housing collapse and there was even a blog dedicated to Yun's calls.
This should make for a very interesting bull vs bear debate. The only problem that I see is that if you are always a Perma-Bull, eventually you'll be right. Sure you may have been wrong for years, but ultimately the market will bottom and it will be a great time to buy & a great time to sell, right? Whats a Perma-Bull you ask? It's someone who sees a bull market every day of every week of every year.
Still don't get it? Here check this out via Hedgefolios.com:
You know you are a Permabull when……Kudlow & Dennis Kneale are permabulls. They were both very bullish 12 months ago, and they are both STILL very bullish. And they will always be very bullish because media needs that role to portray to us people. Listen to them on down days, and you'll see what I mean. When the Dow was at 14,000, 13,000, 12,000, 11,000, 10,000, 9,000, 8,000, and 7,680 it was all the same story. Now that the Goldilocks moniker was alive, then sick, then alive again, then on life support and now dead, its all about the mustard seeds of growth!* each time the market declines you declare it a “healthy pullback”
* sideways moves are actually just the market “taking a breather” or a “pause”
* missing earnings estimates is ok as long as management confirms next quarter’s guidance
* bad guidance is ok as long as last quarter’s earnings beat estimates
* you criticize any analyst that downgrades your stock from “Strong Buy” to “Buy”
* you applaud poor economic results as good for the market because this time they will cause the Fed to stop raising rates
* any negative market commentary is evidence of a huge “wall of worry” that the market needs to go higher
* you plead that a 10% decline is a “great buying opportunity”
* you blame any market decline on short sellers who just don’t understand
* oil declines to $60 and you expect that will cause the market to head higher
* oil increases towards $70 and you point out how the market has been able to absorb higher oil prices
* you quote the cliches “history repeats itself” for positive things and “it’s different this time” for negative ones
* an inverted yield curve doesn’t concern you at all……
Comments (8)
I don't think anyone clued-in takes Lawrence Yun or David Lereah seriously. They exist to provide positive sound bites to journalists desperate to show both sides of a story at any cost. Their "predictions" are nothing of the sort, and not based in sound economic theory. They serve estate agents and are not academics.
To put it bluntly, they're clown shoes.
Posted by Rodalpho | January 3, 2009 10:24 AM
well with Barry & myself on the panel, there will be no bullshitting! Problem is, I have been very bearish for past 2 years on national housing, and Im actually starting to get less bearish now that prices are down 35-40% or so. Case Shiller hasnt caught up yet, but it will. By end of this year, I think most of the damage in nat'l housing will be done and risk/reward for private investment will be more balanced. Afterall, you can actually buy distressed properties now and rent them out for a profit, but not in Manhattan!
Posted by Noah | January 3, 2009 10:32 AM
Noah,
PLEASE post the video of the bulls vs. bears debate. I want to see you debate Yun. PLEASE. I have lots of popcorn, but nothing good to watch while I eat it.
Posted by Donald | January 3, 2009 1:53 PM
Donald - ha! Well, Inman records it and publishes on their site but for registered users only. Im not allowed to. Sorry. Ill try to write how the panel goes here though like last time
Posted by Noah | January 3, 2009 2:48 PM
my favorite perma-bull indicator is that unemployment numbers increasing reflect managements' decisions to cut costs and increase profits for shareholders, lean and mean, go market.
Posted by brenda | January 4, 2009 7:43 AM
OT - referring back to a discussion we had re: US debt as % of GDP relative to other countries I came across a link on (gasp) wikipedia. The data looks compiled from multiple sources but interesting nonetheless. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
Posted by Fred | January 4, 2009 4:17 PM
Never a bad idea to remain positive, but to be bullish in these current conditions could lead to a huge loss in income.
Best to be cautious in my opinion.
Sharon Hollas
Posted by Langley Realtor | January 6, 2009 1:26 PM
Nice real estate blog. I have bookmarked. Thanks
Posted by Sell My Property | April 23, 2010 2:26 AM