Madoff Scam: "He’s a person of integrity..."
A: Waking up this morning here to plenty of news; Senate votes down auto bailout as Harry Reid states "No more talks on auto bailout..." & Bernard Madoff admits to employees of running a $50Bln Ponzi Scheme, using new principal from new investors to pay out returns to existing investors. The shame of wall street continues and the lack of trust, confidence, and transparency is certainty going to be very difficult to reclaim down the road. Absolutely amazing. When the tide goes out and the money stops flowing, the scams are ultimately revealed.
The Madoff 'lie' is going to directly impact other hedge funds with investments held there. Its another sore on the toe for an industry already reeling with losses; expect 2009 to see many Manhattan based hedge funds close their doors. A report by Morgan Stanley expects assets under management at hedge funds to shrink to $900Bln by the end of 2009, down about 50% from peak levels earlier in the year (source).
Bloomberg's "Madoff ‘Big Lie’ Hits Fairfield Sentry, Kingate Funds" discusses:
Hedge funds, already heading for their worst year on record, may lose at least $10 billion from investing with a New York firm that founder Bernard L. Madoff called "a giant Ponzi scheme."As this news breaks, Madoff's defense lawyer states, "...Bernard Madoff is a longstanding leader in the financial services industry,we will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events. He’s a person of integrity.". Yea right. Person of integrity my ass! The guy just admitted to the biggest ponzi scam in US history, and yet he is still a person of integrity. If it smells like shit, and it looks like shit, then it's probably shit! This is shit and I'm getting more and more ashamed at wall street, the markets that I grew up admiring and loving, as these scams reveal themselves.
Investors, ranging from hedge funds that depend on outside managers to wealthy individuals, entrusted their money with the 70-year-old Madoff, who told employees before his arrest yesterday that his firm was "one big lie" and may have cost clients as much as $50 billion. His confession comes with hedge fund assets poised to fall as low as $1.1 trillion by Jan. 1 from $1.9 trillion in June, reflecting market losses and customer redemptions, analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate.
"If the losses were $50 billion or even half that amount, it would be the biggest Ponzi scheme in history," said Mark Schonfeld, the former head of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s New York office, who is now a partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP.
This whole mess is a complete farce and blame lies everywhere:
a) wall street innovation that failed the test
b) flawed ratings models and turning a blind eye
c) ignored warnings on use of leverage
d) deregulation and allowing leverage to get to 30:1 or even 40:1
e) subsidizing rates/affordability and promoting a housing bubble
f) 'everybody should own a home' policies enabling GSEs to take on leverage up to 120:1 and buy up bad loans as the secondary market froze over
g) fee based securitization model that rewarded quantity over quality
i) exotic loan products designed to make higher purchase prices more affordable for the short term
j) loan fraud on behalf of both lenders and consumers; deceptive loan tactics
k) bloated appraisals to get the # where it needed to be so the deal would go through
l) clueless NAR statements on the state of the housing market and Brokerage Agencies pushing sales and higher purchase prices to take advantage of vested interest via commissions collected at closings
m) lack of oversight from SEC on ratings agencies wrapping subprime junk as AAA structured investment products
n) cashing out of equity and use of home as ATM for consumption, pinning more into debt as housing market collapsed; many homes now have negative equity
o) fractional reserve banking system; encouraged to take on risk to get bigger returns
the list can go on and on....It is a sad day for America. As a debtor nation, a nation of non savers, a nation of 'buy now/worry later', we enter this dark period with consumer balance sheets in deep need of repair.
The other sobering piece of news today is that the Senate voted down the auto bailout bill that would have provided a 'bridge loan to nowhere' and kept the Big 3 automakers alive for a bit longer; until they needed more funds that is. The business model of the Big 3 is inefficient and not successful, period. Letting the companies fail, go into bankruptcy, and be restructured will do the dirty work that needs to be done for a more successful and efficient model later on. But the side effects of a credit event will hurt, many jobs will unfortunately be lost, and the supply chain shock will hurt not only the US, but global economies as well. Pain today and tomorrow, for a brighter future.
Bankruptcy now looms for GM, F & Chrysler unless the gov't comes out with a new way to get funds to keep these troubled businesses alive for a bit longer. While I was against any bailout for these guys, I honestly thought the gov't would not allow them to fail because of the jobs involved. At least the system of checks & balances is working, Mish will be very proud today; but it wont be because of the pain associated with these firms failing. It will be because these companies should not exist in their current form, or be bailed out to maintain their current form. Perhaps a restructuring was shown to be impossible in the time period allotted by the bailout terms. Who knows. With Obama (for a bailout) taking office next month, it will be interesting to see if he pulls something out. Bloomberg discusses one reason why the talks may have stalled:
Connecticut Democrat Christopher Dodd, who helped lead the negotiations, said the final unresolved issue in the Senate talks was a Republican demand that unionized autoworkers accept a reduction in wages next year, rather than later, to match wages of U.S. workers at foreign-owned companies, such as Toyota Motor Corp.It seems both the Unions and the Bondholders were unwilling to take haircuts. So be it. You play tough, you got to be prepared to have your bluff called. The Senate called the bluff and voted it down.
The Senate failure came when a bid to cut off debate on the bill the House passed Dec. 10 fell short of the required 60 votes. The vote on ending the debate was 52 in favor, 35 against. Earlier last night, negotiations on an alternate bailout plan failed. A plan offered by Tennessee Republican Senator Bob Corker, which served as a basis for a possible compromise yesterday, would have required automakers to offer bondholders 30 cents on the dollar. Automakers would also have had to convince the United Auto Workers to take half of the $23 billion it’s owed for health care as GM stock instead, and eliminate a program in which UAW workers are paid not to work if there are no tasks for them.



Posted by Joyce
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 07:22 AM
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Joyce
http://www.webtraffictrigger.com
Posted by E
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 07:45 AM
"The shame of wall street continues and the lack of trust, confidence, and transparency is certainty going to be very difficult to reclaim down the road. "
How can you say that the fall of hedge funds is going to hurt wall street when it was their involvement that have had a huge part in the damage done. It amazes me how hedge funds are legal to start with.
Posted by chris
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 08:00 AM
The really disturbing aspect of the Madoff debacle is the fact that his funds were distributed by well known institutions such as Mass Mutual, JP Morgan Chase, etc. as 'private label funds' to their high net worth clients. These clients never knew that Madoff was the sub-investment manager. Where was the due diligence and the oversight by Mass Mutual and JP Morgan Chase (and others)? I am sure there will be a tsunami of law suits ...
In addition this is a HUGE black eye for the hedge fund industry. Everybody at last night's Apollo Partners holiday party was talking about it. I would think that most definitely there will be stringent regulations forthcoming on the hedge fund industry. The party is over.
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 09:17 AM
E - I said this is going to directly impact hedge funds with exposure to Madoff. The blame for this mess is spread across so many areas! Its not only the hedgies.
All of this is going to add to lack of trust, more uncertainty that benefits nobody. Its just another reminder of the BS that was done under the surface as these slowdowns ultimately reveal the scams.
But so much blame has to do with deregulation, fractional reserve banking, rewarding fee based securitization model, ratings models, lack of oversight, etc..I listed most of these in the piece. Plenty of blame to go around. But yes you have a point, and Im sure hedgies will be regulated in some way, shape or form when we come out of the other end of this mess.
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 09:19 AM
Chris - yes I agree.
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 09:33 AM
we are back to the trickle effect of a credit event here..
Think writers of CDS on GM/F, losses there, pension plans, state holdings, suppliers, job losses, etc..the residual damage from bankruptcy of these guys go pretty deep and we wont know for months how bad it was.
Look at what happened AFTER Lehman failed and how deep that was connected to the system. I wonder how deep this is too?
Posted by OT
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 09:55 AM
How does the UAW in good conscience refuse to negotiate?? Frankly I think it is ridiculous that the salaries of those at the top are now almost 400 times the salaries of those at the bottom (from a multiplier of 40) at many firms. But none of that matters at this moment in time. Concessions by the UAW could have averted what will almost certainly be a massive disaster. Is there ANY good news out there?
Posted by Eric Dennis
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 10:12 AM
So you're blaiming Wall St. for:
Models dreamed up by the rating agencies who are in effect an oligopoly legally mandated by federal banking regulation.
Government subsidies given to poor, bad-credit borrowers, as well as regulatory intimidation designed to force lenders to further increase their exposure to these borrowers.
The *Governemnt* Sponsored Entities, riding the coat-tails of implicit government gaurantees.
Most importantly, the Federal Reserve System as a whole, which blew up this whole bubble in the first place because its little board of bureaucrats decided that 1% was a good Fed Funds rate in the early 2000s?
Wall St. is just a conduit. It directed all the easy money into what turned out to be economically unsound projects. The problem isn't the conduit though -- it's the Fed's easy money policy, and the whole Federal Reserve mechanism by which bureaucrats are arbitrarily distorting the entire structure of production according to how much coffee they had that morning.
Our banking system is capitalist only in appearance. The central planners are the ones making the critical decisions, not the market. Are the consequences really any surprise?
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 10:24 AM
Eric Dennis - I think your right, wall street is a conduit here. I mentioned all you said in the piece on where to lay blame, but you emphasis a few in particular, and I think you are right to do so!
No the consequences are not surprising at all, been blogging about this garbage for 18 months. In fact I believe the fed is a cartel and beginning to side with Mish, that the fed needs to be abolished but I dont know how the new world would operate?
you?
Posted by lars
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 10:39 AM
Noah,
Not to quibble, but F is not in any immediate danger of bankruptcy. They have sufficient liquidity having been prescient (or lucky) to mortgage the balance sheet in 2006-2007 building cash and lines of credit. Very different situation to GM and C, both of whom are lacking liquidity.
Indeed, F, IMHO, has distanced itself from the recent auto bailout discussions not wanting to hand over control to Washington for money they don't currently need.
F's main concern is that it gets dragged into a world of hurt if GM and C go under.
YMMV.
Posted by brenda
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 10:41 AM
I agree that it was counterproductive for UAW not to grant concessions, but I was struck by what a commenter on Calculated Risk wrote: Where were the across-the-board paycut provisions in the deal that provided massive amounts of money to AIG? Has AIG proven that it has a better working model than the auto industry?
Now there are rumors of a TARP rescue. I am not sure I can see how Paulson can spend his last $20B on this, there is no guarantee that one of the big financials doesn't need additional funds before January 20th, and I don't know how receptive Congress is going to be right now (particularly if he used the money for the auto industry) to let him at the remaining $350B.
The government should guarantee debtor financing through the bankruptcy proceedings. Airlines go in and out of bankruptcy like clockwork.
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 11:02 AM
Lars - quibble away! So, in your opinion, taking into account burn rate and no change in business, since we know sales likely wont accelerate anytime soon, how many months do they have left?
4? 6?
Posted by Noah
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 11:07 AM
Brenda - AIG was on the other side of CDS trades that killed them, right, and their business was so intertwined that they were deemed 'too connected to fail'. Look at the losses piling in from AIG. Given their reach worldwide, connection to banking system, and reach to consumers in this country, rescue was the only option.
They are literally picking who fails and who MUST succeed, its nutz!
You know my feelings on TARP, I think that last 350BLN, most will go to major 3 banks again to recapitalize, and then we will get a TARP 2 or RTC to buy distressed assets directly. First capitalize, then clear out toxic assets which will reveal price discovery and marks that will force writedowns on other assets not sold; which would then result in capital raising which was taken care of by TARP 1 so they dont have to go to private sector or dilute shareholders, which they cant do at these levels
my opinion anyway.
Posted by Eric Dennis
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 11:11 AM
Noah,
Yes, I know you've been pretty good on this stuff compared to a lot of others, just keeping you honest ;)
It's hard to know how a modern alternative to central banking would work out in detail. That's the trick though. It shouldn't be up to any one man to plan it all -- much less any one or 12 bureaucrats. Indeed that's why the ultimate solution has to be free (as in laissez-faire) banking, which would probably converge on some kind of commodity-backed (gold?) bank notes, whose volume and interest rates would be determined on the market to equilibrate savers' supply of investment funds with borrowers' demand for them.
Posted by lars
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 11:54 AM
Noah,
My working assumption is F is good for 2009. Going on memory, they had $18 billion in cash on Sept 2008 and unused lines of credit for an additional $11 billion. FMCC also has excess borrowing capacity. Fourth quarter cash burn (which was no question high) was hit by unusual payables movements (if you believe management).
They also have Volvo which could be sold and their remaining stake in Mazda.
Again YMMV.
On the disclosure front I do not own any F common (and wouldn't).
Posted by Fred
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 12:24 PM
The spin never ceases with the WH now chumming it up, or so it seems, to using TARP funds to stay a meltdown. One thing that's interesting through all of the detroit stuff is there is very little if not a complete absence of empathy for the unions. The country is really not interested in preserving unions any longer at any cost. They have in effect become political instruments and form that vantage, liabilities to the industry. The recent SEIU stuff around Blago is preposterous. Obama does not get to skate around this one, and my sense is it will split the party because the end game here is the unions take equity in exchange for unfunded liabilities which means their free ride is done.
Posted by david
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 01:32 PM
frankly i dont see why all the fuss about the UAW. IF every single employee of the big three worked for for free until march it would still not help them one single iota. the legacy issue are too large to overcome
Posted by david
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 01:33 PM
frankly i dont see why all the fuss about the UAW. IF every single employee of the big three worked for for free until march it would still not help them one single iota. the legacy issue are too large to overcome
Posted by morecowbell
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 05:48 PM
As a former Madoff employee, I can say that's it a very sad day. It was firm filled with great people and great ideas. I have a 2 close very friends who still remain at the firm. One, who won't get paid for the best year of his career, another who's been there since the mid 80's who lost everything. EVERYTHING!!!
These are good people. They worked in the broker-dealer Arm. As employees, the BD Arm was our enitre domain. We didn't know hide nor hair about what went on in the investment advisory business.
It turns out management was scum. They were the only ones who knew. Just another prime example of a couple of bad seeds, killing Wall Street and making victims out of those who really ran it.
Sad.
Posted by Query1
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 06:53 PM
Seriously,I don't understand the sense of outrage here. Financial scandals happen everywhere. I have watched an "industrial bank" go under with blue collar depositors literally losing their life savings because the owners were taking the money and using it to develop real estate that all went down with the real estate bust in the 70's. The state advertised a guaranty fund to protect the depositors but it was woefully underfunded and was a joke when it was needed. Then there was the feedlot owner who got ranchers to pay him to feed their cattle and financed his expansion with bank loans collaterlized by the cattle but the money was going to speculation on the futures market. Farmers and the banks took losses. Wall Street at its worst just is a bigger and more complicated version of all this. We just have to understand what we are buying and that is why blogs like this are so helpful.
Posted by Betty
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 08:57 PM
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Betty
http://www.my-foreclosures.info
Posted by brenda
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 09:07 PM
query1 - history repeating itself, etc.? I don't know if horrible things happening before erase the ugliness of horrible things happening now. And, if one were to follow the logic of your first example to its conclusion, one might be withdrawing all money from FDIC-insured accounts and stuffing the mattresses full of benjamins. Not that it's not tempting, but one would certainly hope it's not necessary. We may recognize unethical behavior as consistent with the past, but we should never become inured to it.
Posted by Jose R
Fri Dec 12th, 2008 10:38 PM
1. Whenever another WS mouthpiece talks about "innovation," replace with "Ponzi".
2. The UAW had already negotiated concessions with the members of congress that brokered the bailout, including the republican representative. The republicans then asked them to take further paycuts at the last minute, knowing the union would reject it. I don't believe the republican members of the senate had any intentions of seeing this bailout through.
3. @Eric Dennis
"Government subsidies given to poor, bad-credit borrowers, as well as regulatory intimidation designed to force lenders to further increase their exposure to these borrowers."
Without the WS firms buying all the liar loans from the originating lenders and re-packaging these loans into MBS that were then sold to pensions and other institutional investors, things would not have gotten so out of hand as it did despite this claim of forced government subsidies.
And at the height of the ponzi scheme, aka the housing bubble, more than 30% of the homes sold were second or third or more investment properties bought by speculators. Blame the poor all you want, but it were the 20 something year-old "investors" that bought up homes using NINJA loans claiming on the paperwork that each home was their primary residence, who are those responsible for a great number of foreclosures and abandoned properties.
4. There are no white knights on Wall Street. Ignorance of wrong-doing is not an excuse. See Barry Ritholtz's post on serial correlation.
Posted by Eric Dennis
Sun Dec 14th, 2008 11:54 AM
Jose, The problem with the theory that it's all the fault of those greedy Wall St. bastards is that greed has always prevailed on Wall St. (and just about everywhere else in the economy). Yes, given that you flood the economy with enough easy money, Wall St. will figure out a way to package it, slice it up, and make commissions on it. This is inevitable in anything but some kind of totalitarian society. The problem is the monetary spigot, i.e. the Federal Reserve system, not the conduits that inevitably arise to pipe it around.
Posted by Andrew F.
Sun Dec 14th, 2008 02:14 PM
Noah-
I have been keeping an unofficial count of losses. So far I am over $28 Billion with out BNP Paribas fessing up to anything just yet. There is at least one domestic fund that has much bigger losses than admitted (you'll probably find out who it is by tomorrow). I would say at this point it is likely that the fraud could be greater than $50 Bil.. Let's remember that Enron was $35 Bil.. Major redemptions will hit this week.
Posted by Subramanian
Tue Dec 16th, 2008 01:34 AM
Dear Noah,
I am new to this blog and used google to locate it.
It is really amazing to see all these topshot Investment bankers from Wharton and Kellogs and other major business schools coming out and working in cahoots with swindlers who have not only rocked the US economy but also shaken the faith of the entire world in the Banking system world wide and made millions of lives miserable. I think this basically points to a lack of education on ethics.Perhaps all these out of job wall street investment bankers should be made to go back to their jobs and let off the hook only when they have pointed out the little scams each of them did and suggest ways and means of putting in regulations which will safegaurd small investors monies worldwide.
Nice blog please keep it up...
Posted by Steve Surabian
Tue Jan 27th, 2009 10:26 PM
The 50 billion dollars never exested, exspecially if the feds. can't find it.50 billion just doesn't disapear.I do not beleive this was a Ponzi scheme were old investers were paid with new investers monies. What I beleive is Madoffs friends, old or new investers were paid with monies from real new or old investers monies. Infact Madoff just printed up statements for his friends for a fee or just for friends. Then these friends or friendly orginazations could borrow from real banks against these fake investments or could fake a sale and get paid by there friend Madoff with money from the few real investers.Those friends may have given Madoff a check for one million dollars or so, then Madoff would give it all back or keep a vig of 5% for himself. This same money could keep being given back to Madoff and add up to tens of millions per investor.Keep in mind that these friends of Madoff were buying up businesses and property like strip malls and waterfront homes with there fake portfolioes. This scheme fell apart because the collateral pleged for cash or property by Madoffs friends lost value and the banks started to call due or his frends need money just to keep up there life style. With the drop in the stock market Madoff would have needed billions just to off set those losses.