Inventory Update: Why The Jump?
A: Because the good folks at Streeteasy.com are doing their job to solve the problem of transparency for Manhattan real estate! Here is the update.
You may have noticed that inventory for Manhattan jumped today by just under 700 new listings, bringing total active inventory (co-ops, condos, townhouses in Manhattan excluding duplicates, FSBO's and open listings) to about 7,659. The reason for the jump is that Streeteasy has expanded their listings database to include "a bunch of new sources in Manhattan". According to one of the tech guys over at Streeteasy, "...this should be the last big change, at this point we have pretty good coverage".
In a housing market without a standardized MLS system, new sites such as Streeteasy have emerged to solve the lack of transparency that is so troubling for many buyers and sellers. Transparency is a good thing, and knowing that the focus is on quality and accurate coverage makes me very proud to have partnered with such a great startup!
Here is the current inventory trend for Manhattan for the last two weeks:
I have spent the past 3-4 weeks working with developers on the new charting system for you guys, and let me say, it is looking sweeeeeeet! Very soon, the landscape will change and you will have a real-time analytical tool to monitor Manhattan total listings inventory, price reductions, new listings, and contracts signed.
The data will never be perfect without a regulated standardized MLS system, but I am extremely pleased with the accuracy of our efforts thus far. Data may not be 100% real-time, but it is accurate and in-line with respected published quarterly reports by Jonathan Miller.
For all those that can't wait, here is another glimpse into what is to come and one reason why I have been discussing the rising trend of inventory since the low in mid-December:
PREVIEW MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY --> 6 Month Chart w/ % Changes Below
I hope it's worth it guys!!
Posted by October
Thu May 8th, 2008 11:32 AM
I can't wait! Thanks for all of this!
Posted by Noah
Thu May 8th, 2008 12:01 PM
your very welcome! as always, feel free to email how the site can improve. Thanks
Posted by Louis
Thu May 8th, 2008 12:07 PM
A question... in other blog posts, you've written, if I remember correctly, that when Manhattan inventory reaches the 7750-8250 range, fierce seller competition might ensue. Does Streeteasy's new method of counting mean that the range for fierce seller competition should be revised upwards (say, 8350-8850)?
I ask because it's not as though 600 new listings have come on the market; it's more like Streeteasy has only just begun to count listings that were presumably there all along.
Posted by Noah
Thu May 8th, 2008 12:17 PM
Louis - true, these listings did not just pile on yesterday, rather, streeteasy is getting more accurate in its coverage.
Maybe there is 8,250 listings right now we dont know about. Maybe 7,300 because contracts signed have not been caught up yet. Its not perfect.
However, use much caution with my statements about fierce seller competition at the 8,250+ level. I am using the top inventory point hit in past 5 years as the level that would tell me there should be some form of competition amongst sellers due to sluggish demand.
What the exact # is, we'll never know. To be safe, lets up it to 9,000+ or so. In that scenario, it would be clear that buyer demand has slowed considerably. We still dont know how this will unwind, so lets just interpret as we go and Ill tell you what I see in field.
Posted by Louis
Thu May 8th, 2008 12:21 PM
Thanks, Noah.
Posted by Noah B
Thu May 8th, 2008 12:55 PM
How has the rising inventory in Manhattan affected rental rates? Are rental rates on the rise because less people are inclined to buy? Have you seen the 65,000 Wall Street lay offs have an impact on rental rates? With a hiring freeze on Wall Street and more lay offs to come, will rental rates decline?
Posted by Jac
Thu May 8th, 2008 02:12 PM
I've been glued to the total inventory numbers ever since you revamped the website. Personally, I am waiting to see the numbers go to 10,000 (if that ever happens this summer.) I am sure it will have a psychological effect with the sellers & buyers. The press would just eat it up. If not, then I guess real estate as usual.
Posted by JC
Thu May 8th, 2008 02:54 PM
Great job Noah ... you really have something unique with the inventory tool.
It's very impressive.
You should be very proud of your accomplishments.
J
Posted by Donald
Thu May 8th, 2008 03:05 PM
Good work keeping track of the inventory! Maybe in the future, you can break down the inventory based on # of bedrooms and price ranges? Just a suggestion.
Posted by More Cowbell
Thu May 8th, 2008 05:12 PM
I've already had hats made that say "Inventory 10,000!!!"
Posted by Noah
Thu May 8th, 2008 06:19 PM
love it! thx all! Greatly appreciated to hear it!
Posted by JB in NYC
Thu May 8th, 2008 09:45 PM
Can the expanded database provide for retroactive postings of more accurate inventory trend lines?
Taking away the small number of extreme high-end sales at a few trophy properties and assuming (correct?) the number of closed sales didn't change, the depiction of Manhattan as an island of calm in the midst of a national crisis may have been unintentionally misleading.
Posted by Donald
Fri May 9th, 2008 02:40 PM
Congratualtions Noah, this post has been mentioned today on The Real Deal.
Posted by Sang
Fri May 9th, 2008 04:39 PM
Hey Noah!
Looks like things have progressed quite well since the last time we chatted... good job! Also, good work on those widgets/charts.
We should catch up sometime, mebbe over a beer or something.
Regards and keep up the good work,
Sang
Posted by Noah
Thu May 22nd, 2008 07:56 PM
JB - hmmm. Ill look into that
Donald - Nice..can you provide link? Cant seem to find.
Sang - hey hey my friend! How r u? Yes, definitely. Email me next week and lets do it.
Posted by Noah
Thu May 22nd, 2008 07:57 PM
Donald - Ahh, found it..nevermind! Thx