Analyzing The REAL Jobs Report

A: We got some good news this morning on the jobs report between a less than expected loss of jobs, and a ticking down of the unemployment rate. Stocks are understandably rallying on the lack of a doomsday report. While I enjoy seeing the stock market rise, as it provides a positive wealth effect and helps to support confidence in general for other types of investments (i.e. real estate), I do not enjoy being told something that is a bold mis-representation of the truth. For all those that understand the BLS B/D adjustment model, you will see why this report was paints such a misleading bullish picture. You may wonder why this report seems to contradict reality; it does.

I've discussed this before, and Barry Ritholtz has been one of the biggest voices trying to bring the B/D adjustment crapola to light. Here is the quick definition of the B/D adjustment in the jobless claims report, before I go into today's discussion of fantasy (what we are told) and reality (what is really happening):

B/D Adjustment - There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearing on the sample frame and being available for sampling. Because new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month, non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth.

Here is the B/D adjustment for April's Non-Farm Payroll's report, directly from BLS.com:

I am NOT making this up, this is REALITY and the report published to the public actually calculated in an ADDITION of 267,000 jobs! Are we really to believe that our economy actually added this many jobs? Let's just look at a few sectors and compare the fantasy vs reality!

CONSTRUCTION

Reality ---> Lost 61,000 Jobs

B/D Fantasy ---> Added 45,000 Jobs

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

Reality ---> Added 39,000 Jobs

B/D Fantasy ---> Added 72,000 Jobs

MANUFACTURING

Reality ---> Lost 46,000 Jobs

B/D Fantasy ---> Lost 10,000 Jobs

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY

Reality ---> Added 18,000 Jobs

B/D Fantasy ---> Added 83,000 Jobs

If we only look at these sectors, we will see the following discrepancy between reality and the B/D fantasy adjustments that are added to the report that we see:

REALITY ---> We LOST 50,000 Jobs
B/D ADJUSTMENT FANTASIZES ---> That We ADDED 190,000 Jobs

Right there, we have a swing of 240,000 jobs that was bullishly embedded into the jobs report; using the seasonally adjusted b/d adjustment! AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE; If I am please do tell me!

This frustrates the hell out of me, and explains why things seem much worse in the real world when stocks and economic reports show otherwise. For the first 4 months of 2008, and using the fantasized data & b/d adjustment model, we STILL LOST ABOUT 260,000 jobs! In a normal growing economy, we should be adding about 150,000 jobs per month. Yet, with all these jobs lost and the smoke & mirrors used to minimize the REAL PAIN that is going on out there, the unemployment rate ticks down to 5%! The reason: the number of part-time workers who wanted to find full-time work but couldn't, surged to 306,000.

I just don't buy it! BR correctly points out:

• Private payrolls have fallen for five straight months. Weakness in the goods-producing sector is intensifying;

• Employees working part time jobs is +306k this month to 5.2 million. This increase is either because a) Hours have been curtailed; or B)They cannot find full-time employment. Note that if your hours get cut back, you do not show up in the NFP or layoff data.

• As noted earlier, the Birth/Death model was a major distortion. (in several months, we will get the revisions). Lets look at how the B/D has changed from April 2007 (+262) to April 2008 (+267):

+45k construction jobs v 37k April 2007
+8k jobs were added in financial activities versus 1k last April.
+72k in professional/business services versus 48k last April.
+83k in leisure/hospitality (95k last April).

I am certain that some country on some planet in our galaxy is adding more jobs in construction and finance versus one year ago, but it ain't the USA on planet Earth, that's for sure.

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Inventory Rises Above 7,000; New Charts Coming Soon

A: As most of you probably know by monitoring the Streeteasy.com powered Manhattan inventory widget on UrbanDigs.com, total inventory in Manhattan seemed to rise above 7,000. The trend is clearly rising, and the reason is clearly sluggish demand. As buyer confidence started to decline late in 2007 as a result of the credit crisis and lagging effect on the equity markets, we started to see a consistent rise in inventory trends. The thing to note is that while this bonus season certainly will go down as a slow one, inventory is by no means at levels that would exemplify fierce seller competition.

First off, here is a preview of the new enhanced charting system that I am custom designing for readers of UrbanDigs.com! The chart below is 1 of 3 charts that will be at your disposal, and compares NEW LISTINGS & CONTRACTS SIGNED data.

The chart you are previewing is about 65% complete. You may notice that the line graph is very choppy/spikey. The reason is because Streeteasy updates their data systems during the wee hours of the morning, when web traffic is lightest. UrbanDigs sends a request to Streeteasy at around 8AM everyday to collect the updated information from the day before. So, there is a 24 hour lag, sometimes a bit longer, between when a listing is first displayed publicly and when it is captured by the Streeteasy systems. In an in-perfect world and a real estate market without a standard MLS listing system, this is the best data at my disposal. So far, it has proven to be fairly accurate.

Moving on, very little updating/editing/adding of new listings is done over the weekends. Since there is a 24 hour lag in data collection, the light data of SAT + SUN is collected by UrbanDigs's widget on SUN + MON! That is why you may notice very low data for contracts signed, price reductions, and new listings on Sunday's and Monday's. This is what is causing the spikes on the above graph. Needless to say, we will probably average the data from the week or come up with a different formula to 'smooth out' the line graph so that you can better interpret the trend without sacrificing data accuracy.

Feel free to offer your suggestion on fixing this in the comment section! The entire purpose of these charts is to get a sense of the general trend! Data will never be perfect or 100% real-time w/out a standardized MLS system, so please understand that these tools are for your general knowledge of trends! In this capacity, it really doesnt matter if a contract signed takes an extra few days to get noticed, or a new listing takes 2 days to get captured; as long as it is captured we can get a more real-time sense of what's going on in Manhattan real estate without waiting for lagging quarterly reports!

Back to the current Manhattan inventory data, it seems to me that listing inventory has:

a) risen about 54% since low in mid-December of 4,600 total listings
b) risen about 10% in the past 4-6 weeks or so; when we were hovering around 6,500 total listings
c) risen about 30% since May 2007; when we were at 5,500 total listings

To me, there is nothing wrong with publicly discussing our housing market; even if that means discussing rising inventory due to slower buy side demand. The trend that I consider worth noting is that at this time last year, we were coming off a very active wall street bonus season where total inventory was DECLINING going into the generally slow summer months. Right now, the trend is clearly RISING inventory coming off a slow wall street bonus season heading into the generally slower summer months.

Here is Jonathan Miller's Manhattan Co-op/Condo Listing Inventory Chart that I am basing these observations on:

NOTE: JM's chart was up until March, 2008. So, I added in green bars to plug in April and today's total inventory number; with this data provided by Streeteasy. It will help you visualize where we are at right now, and the trend.

Click on the chart for the larger version. Note how in the past 6 years, total inventory hit a high just below 8,000 in mid-2006. It seems we are on a path to these levels. Now, when I think back to the summer of 2006, I recall it being slow and hard to get top dollar for my sellers; but in no way were prices falling significantly! It was strange, as traffic was slow and listings took longer to sell (days on market definitely rose during summer of 2006), in the end the price paid was pretty strong and didn't dip as low as one might think given the sluggish activity. The reason I mention this is because it seems we will be close to that inventory high in a few more months, if sales volume continues to be light.

In order for asking prices to show a significant move down (as has occurred in many local markets across the nation), you need to see fierce seller competition at a time when buyer demand is very light. That just has not happened yet. I am still seeing buyer demand here in Manhattan, albeit lighter, and inventory is not at levels where sellers are competing with each other via sharp price cuts to move property. Of course you may find pockets of seller competition in buildings that have 15+ listings for sale (the Trump buildings on Riverside Blvd come to mind), in general the competition has not gotten nasty as of yet.

The new charting system should be ready in a week or so, barring any unforeseen programming issues, and should allow all of us to get a much better glimpse into this very mysterious but fast paced Manhattan housing market! I hope you guys like it!

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Credit Markets / Level 3 Rising / Fed Widening Collateral

A: In the post-Bear Stearns era of a saving grace federal reserve, the risk of a systemic crisis shutting down the financial system was all but removed. So, all those shorts in equities and credit markets had to unwind their bets and buy/bid to cover the very positions that were designed to profit on doomsday; the doomsday that Ben Bernanke will not allow to happen. When I look at the stock market & credit market indexes in the past 5 weeks, I see major short covering rallies and bids. Corporate spreads have narrowed, TED spread has fallen, ABX indices have rebounded, CMBX spreads have narrowed, Investment Grade spreads narrowed, and it seemed as if the credit market distress has eased significantly. Is it truly the end amidst all this new liquidity? If it were, LIBOR would have come in much more, Level 3 assets would be shrinking, capital raising would end, and the fed would not need to continue with TAF's and widening acceptable collateral!

The good news is that there are certainly signs of easing credit market distress as a result of everything the fed has done. The bad news is that we are NOT out of the woods yet, from those I talk to the credit markets still remain quite challenging, and the fed is continuing auctions and widening acceptable collateral to now include credit card receivables and student loan securities. The credit problem is clearly spreading.

If it weren't, Fannie Mae would not have just announced a $2.2Bln loss, cut their dividend, warn of 'severe weakness', and plan to raise an additional $6Bln in new capital by diluting shareholders further! Either you wake up, or you have your head in the sand. While the worst may be behind us, we are by no way, shape, or form in for a new boom!

Let me start with the positives and show you the credit market indices that have eased:

ABX AAA Index - Easing (up) Since mid-March (via Markit)

Corporate Spreads Narrow (Wachovia HY Corporate Bond vs iShares LEH 7-10YR Treasury Bond Fund via Bloomberg)

TED Spread Falling (via Bloomberg)

The 3 charts above show the following signs of easing distress in credit markets since the Bear Stearns bottom:

a) rising ABX AAA Index
b) narrowing corporate bond spreads
c) falling TED spread

What has not participated in easing significantly is the money markets and LIBOR. Banks are still reluctant to lend to one another at normal spreads, signaling the need for capital to remain on the books. In fact, banks need to raise MORE capital as balance sheets continue to update hard to value assets! This is why many brokerages and banks have decided to shift assets into their Level 3 hideout's on their balance sheets.

Look at what Merrill Lynch said this morning, according to CNN Money's "Merrill Lynch Level 3 assets increase through March":

Merrill Lynch & Co. disclosed Tuesday that highest-risk assets on its books rose 69 percent during the quarter ending March 28.

Merrill Lynch had $69.86 billion in so-called "Level 3" assets as of March 28, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Level 3 assets totaled $41.45 billion on Dec. 28. At the lowest end, Level 3 assets are those whose valuation is essentially a best guess by the investor, because there is virtually no active trading market for the product to use as a pricing guide.

Level 3 assets accounted for 15.5 percent of total assets as of March 28 at Merrill Lynch, compared with 9.2 percent as of Dec. 28. Level 3 assets as of March 28 included $9.3 billion of collateralized debt obligations, of which $9 billion were tied to subprime mortgages _ loans given to customers with poor credit history.

Another $20.6 billion of level 3 assets at Merrill Lynch are tied to derivatives of collateralized debt obligations. Within that $20.6 billion, $16.7 billion is related to subprime mortgages. About $18 billion are tied to credit derivatives from corporate and other non-mortgage debt.

Things that make you go hmmmmmmm!

No, things are not rosy just yet. Anyone notice how the fed snuck in another $25Bln in its auction to banks on Friday? And what about the little announcement that the fed will now take on credit card receivables and collateralized auto loans, and student loans! Geez Louise! What in the world is the fed doing here and who is still debating that this is contained to subprime?

According to Daily Reckoning's "US Fed Now Accepts Credit Card Debt as Collateral":

First the Fed increased by US$25 billion the amount of money it will auction to banks (commercial and investment) through its Term Auction Facility (TAF). Here banker people, borrow more. Please.

Second, the Fed expanded the list of collateral it will accept for asset-swapping through its Term Securities Lending (Facility). Remember, that's the one that lets banks and prime brokers swap mortgage-backed securities for Treasury bonds for up to 28-days.

The Fed is now expanding that list of asset-backed securities to include collateralized car loans, credit card receivables, and student loans. It's doing so because the lack of demand for bonds backed by those assets has had a real political impact in an election year. What it really means is that that the Fed has lowered interest rates as far as it can to deal with the bank lending crisis. It still hasn't encouraged banks to loan to each other, or investors to buy bonds backed by various kinds of consumer liabilities.

When will it end? We have a major moral hazard problem brewing here and you can count on one thing: wall street will invent a new product to generate revenue from dodgy debts that utilize the gray areas of future regulation that will be imposed! The reason why? Because they will always get bailed out by our fed!

Must be great to be an American wall street executive!

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Yield Curve Steepens / Hoenig Hawkish

A: Amazing how things change. Remember late 2006 all the talk about the bond market and the inverted yield curve predicting a coming slowdown in the economy; forcing the fed to eventually cut rates? Well, the fed did so about 10 months later and cut the FFR by 325 basis points to stimulate the economy and credit markets. Now, the yield curve is steepening again and Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig may have something to do with it.

First, some econ 101 about a steepening yield curve:

Steep Yield Curve: Historically, the 20-year Treasury bond yield has averaged approximately two percentage points above that of three-month Treasury bills. In situations when this gap increases (e.g. 20-year Treasury yield rises relatively higher than the three-month Treasury yield), the economy is expected to improve quickly in the future. This type of curve can be seen at the beginning of an economic expansion (or after the end of a recession). Here, economic stagnation will have depressed short-term interest rates; however, rates begin to rise once the demand for capital is re-established by growing economic activity. A steep yield curve is generally a bullish indicator.

StockCharts.com has a great little Dynamic Yield Curve tool that time lapses the yield curve with the S&P 500 Index since 2000! By hitting animate, the yield curve tool will dynamically change as time goes on, and you can see what equities did as the yield curve flattened, inverted, and steepened! Current yield curve snapshot to the right.

The yield curve is not a perfect indicator, so don't go betting your $$$ on it so fast. I have my doubts about the recession ending so soon and a new economic boom coming; in my opinion, the steepening yield curve is pricing in future inflation concerns and not a new economic boom! I'll go on record for that one, as I am still cautious about the strength of the consumer given a tight credit market, correcting housing market, limited equity for withdrawal (spending) from homes, and irresponsible use of debt/leverage for so many years. In short, I just think the consumer is tapped out and this is not something that turns around so fast; lets not forget that 70% of the US economy is driven by the consumer and the reason why the Bush stimulus package was passed to give Americans more money to spend!

However, as someone who loves to learn and understand 'why' things happen the way they do, it's hard to ignore what is going on in the bond market. It signifies a few things:

a) heightened inflation expectations/concerns
b) rates expected to rise in medium term
c) US dollar support
d) economic slowdown/recession expected to be mild

Whether or not this turns out to be the case is the $64,000 question! Future economic data will certainly drive the yield curve over the next few months; if economic data deteriorates, you will see the yield curve flatten (long end come down more drastically than short end flattening the curve) signaling the fed may need to cut rates a bit further to stimulate the economy. In this case, the US dollar will likely fall further and commodities priced in US dollars will rise further, creating more pipeline inflation pressures.

Hoenig's statement is interesting because it has to do with INFLATION EXPECTATIONS! The psychology of living in a world of rising costs/prices may force businesses and consumers to alter their investment/spending patterns! Businesses will get cautious and look to cut costs to retain profits while consumers will cutback on spending and perhaps even save a bit to afford the higher costs of living.

According to Bloomberg:

The dollar strengthened versus the euro as Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed said in a speech in Denver yesterday that "serious" inflation pressure in the U.S. may compel the central bank to increase interest rates.

"There is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it," said Hoenig, who isn't a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Consumers are gaining an "inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s."

The reference to the 1970's and 1980's is when fed chief Volcker had to raise rates to insanely high levels to give the nation the inflation medicine it needed to fight the disease of 'the worst tax of them all'.

Below is a chart that Hoenig refers to in discussing the rise of inflation expectation (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via Calculated Risk)

As I said April 15th, by talking tough on inflation we can remove the speculative currency trade in commodities and ease pipeline inflation pressures without action at this point. Thing is, commodity inflation is similar to fed rate cuts; it takes time to funnel through the system! So, $120 oil today, will have a lagging effect on corporate profits down the road! I can see it already!

2009 Fight of the Year: Inflation vs Economic Recovery

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Inventory Update: Why The Jump?

A: Because the good folks at Streeteasy.com are doing their job to solve the problem of transparency for Manhattan real estate! Here is the update.

You may have noticed that inventory for Manhattan jumped today by just under 700 new listings, bringing total active inventory (co-ops, condos, townhouses in Manhattan excluding duplicates, FSBO's and open listings) to about 7,659. The reason for the jump is that Streeteasy has expanded their listings database to include "a bunch of new sources in Manhattan". According to one of the tech guys over at Streeteasy, "...this should be the last big change, at this point we have pretty good coverage".

In a housing market without a standardized MLS system, new sites such as Streeteasy have emerged to solve the lack of transparency that is so troubling for many buyers and sellers. Transparency is a good thing, and knowing that the focus is on quality and accurate coverage makes me very proud to have partnered with such a great startup!

Here is the current inventory trend for Manhattan for the last two weeks:

I have spent the past 3-4 weeks working with developers on the new charting system for you guys, and let me say, it is looking sweeeeeeet! Very soon, the landscape will change and you will have a real-time analytical tool to monitor Manhattan total listings inventory, price reductions, new listings, and contracts signed.

The data will never be perfect without a regulated standardized MLS system, but I am extremely pleased with the accuracy of our efforts thus far. Data may not be 100% real-time, but it is accurate and in-line with respected published quarterly reports by Jonathan Miller.

For all those that can't wait, here is another glimpse into what is to come and one reason why I have been discussing the rising trend of inventory since the low in mid-December:

PREVIEW MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY --> 6 Month Chart w/ % Changes Below

I hope it's worth it guys!!

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Room Count: A Shady Science

A: Ever wonder how to actually count the number of rooms a property has? Ever wonder why so many brokers mis-represent their listings room count? Its probably because either they don't know what technically makes up a room OR they are pressured by the seller to market the property above what it actually is. Either way, in the world of New York City real estate it is up to YOU the buyer to know what makes up a room so that you don't waste your time visiting a property that isn't what you thought it was! Originally Published July 9th, 2007

Room Count

The number of 'rooms' in an apartment. A living area, a bedroom, and a walled kitchen count as 'rooms'. Therefore, a one bedroom apartment with a living room and kitchen has three (3) rooms. A studio with a separate kitchen has two (2) rooms. A studio with a Pullman Kitchen has one room.

Definition of Room for Major Capital Improvement (MCI) Purposes

Bathrooms, walk-in closets, porches, terraces and hallways are not rooms.

1. A windowless kitchen containing at least 59 square feet or a kitchen of any size with window. In either case, a kitchen must be enclosed by at least three sides, excluding the side(s) that contain(s) the entranceway; or

2. An enclosed area with window containing at least 60 square feet;or

3. An enclosed area without window containing at least 80 square feet.

Therefore, when you have a JR4 property with one bedroom, one living room, a walled kitchen and a separate dining/office alcove, there SHOULD be 3.5 rooms.

1 Bedroom = 1 room
1 Living Room = 1 room
1 Walled Kitchen = 1 room
1 Alcove Space = 0.5 room
-----------------------------------------
Total = 3.5 Rooms

You may wonder why you see two of the same types of properties in the same building being marketed to the public so differently. This is a widespread issue and one that obviously won't get resolved by industry watchdogs like REBNY. Instead, it is up to you to understand and learn about these things so you are educated on what you are seeing and potentially purchasing. If you get duped, chances are you will have a hard time re-duping others when you eventually resell!

Here is a great real life example at 245 East 93rd Street; Astor Terrace Condominiums. Take a look at the difference between how unit 14J & 22J (both Junior 4's) were marketed to prospective buyers:

Both units enjoy this very same JR4 layout and are correctly quoting the property size as 960 sft! However, the measurements vary for the alcove space and the living room space which could be due to the converted 2nd bedroom installed in the higher floor unit. One must also take into account the premium for the higher floor unit which brings more sunlight and better views, as well as the renovations done when doing a pricing anaylsis. In short, 22J should be valued higher for work done and better light/views and NOT for having 4.5 rooms! I would consider a 4.5 room property to be a 2BR/2BTH with dining area plus separate kitchen; like this one at 392 Central Park West marketed by Lauren & Maria Cangiano of my firm Halstead; big difference!

The fact that both units are quoted at 960 total sft and that the layout is virtually the same makes this argument one of marketed room count and NOT one of misrepresentation of total size or # of bedrooms; technically the 2nd bedroom is absolutely fine and has a window, hvac, and over 100 sft of space. Apt 22J at most should be marketed at 4 rooms with the alcove space converted to a walled bedroom. The original JR4 layout is 3.5 rooms.

UrbanDigs Says: This is NOT a rip on any of the brokers or firms they work at in the above example! This is a common mistake in the industry (as agents are responsible for filling in their own listings data, with rare backup checks on accuracy) and since room count is generally NOT a criteria included in most of the online real estate search sites, its something that often goes unnoticed. The point of this post is to educate you on how the number of rooms is calculated so that you are savvy enough to realize when a error like this one is marketed to you. In my opinion, misrepresentation of total square footage or a certain type of view is much worse than misrepresenting the number of rooms. Its even rare that a buyer will ask for a certain number of rooms unless they are aware of this practice and want a true two or three bedroom property. But still a good topic to discuss and pass on to you.

A simple guide for you (Living room assumed):

Studio w/ Pullman Kitchen - 1 Room
Straight Studio w/ Separate Kitchen - 2 Rooms
Alcove Studio w/ Separate Kitchen - 2.5 Rooms
Straight 1BR w/ Separate Kitchen - 3 Rooms
JR4 w/ Separate Kitchen - 3.5 Rooms
2BR w/ Separate Kitchen - 4 Rooms
2BR + Alcove Dining Area w/ Separate Kitchen - 4.5 Rooms
2BR + Dining Room w/ Separate Kitchen - 5 Rooms
2BR + Dining Room + Maids Room w/ Separate Kitchen - 6 Rooms (Classic 6)
3BR + Dining Room + Maids Room w/ Separate Kitchen - 7 Rooms (Classic 7)
4BR + Dining Room + Maids Room w/ Separate Kitchen - 8 Rooms (Classic 8)

If you are looking for more than 8 rooms you are too rich to care if the listing is right or not!

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Light Week

Another light postings week guys. I am very busy with clients right now and finalizing work on charting/contractor directory with programmers for launch. As much as I love blogging, frequency of posts is determined by how much time I have outside of work. Please bear with me until the new tools are launched and my schedule opens up. For what its worth, my business is busy and buyers eager to take advantage of any softness that has resulted from rising inventory and declining confidence from the credit crisis and Bear Stearns headline shock. Uncertainty over the economy, jobs market, wall st, and real estate certainly are keeping buyers cautious and savvy. I am noticing some buyers pricing in potential downturn risk in their bids; sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. While seller's for the most part do not seem desperate (pockets of distress can be found, especially in buildings with fierce competition), I think nobody can argue that this wall street bonus season was sluggish compared to years past. In fact, I am finding it busier now, than it was from JAN - APRIL. Best I can tell you right now. I can't speak for other brokers out there, so take it as a simple in the field observation.

By the end of this week, you should have the new charting system up allowing all of us to get a better real-time glimpse into what is going on in Manhattan real estate.

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