NAR: Lifts 2008 Housing Outlook; "...local markets seeing increases"
A: When will they learn? The NAR, a trade group for real estate agents, said today that the clobbered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 & 2008 home sales. Um, isn't 2007 pretty much over?
Before I get into what Lawrence Yun said, NAR chief economist, lets check in on the NAR's track record for the past 9 months or so.
The NAR has unsuccessfully predicted housing trends for 70% of 2007! For the past 9 months, count 'em NINE MONTHS, the NAR had to downwardly revise their housing predictions; which were unsurprisingly too bullish. This is the same trade group that was once headed by David Lereah, you remember, the poster boy for 'everything is OK' as the national housing market went into free fall. In Mr. Lereah's own words, "It's a great time to BUY & it's a great time to SELL"! That one was the best. Hmmm, a great time to buy and a great time to sell is what the head of a real estate agent trade group is telling us! Talk about losing credibility as head of a group of people that earn their salaries on transaction commissions.
BubbleMeter's History of Calling out David Lereah
Even Jonathan Miller of MATRIX gets into the NAR groove: NAR's Temporary Housing View
Not a month goes by that Larry doesn’t say housing is getting better and that mortgage problems are temporary:It's just so sad, it really is. JM is dead on and I just don't get why the NAR is so afraid to be unbiased and acknowledge what is really going on in the world of real estate. This is one very big reason why real estate agents have a bad reputation!"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected the sluggish performance. "As noted last month, temporary mortgage problems were peaking back in August when many of the sales closed in October were being negotiated. We continue to see the biggest impact in high-cost markets that rely on jumbo loans," he said. “Mortgage availability has improved as evidenced by much lower mortgage interest rates and a sharp jump in FHA endorsements for home purchases."
I was wondering what mortgage data Larry is referring to? I don’t believe its part of his research but is a primary basis of rationalization for glowing market conditions, despite the fact that inventory tracked by NAR is at its highest level since 1985 and has continued to rise despite temporary mortgage problems.
I yearn for the day when NAR finds that perfect moment and decides to inform the public and the consumer what is happening in the housing market, rather than assume we are illiterate. I know many, many brokerage firms and agents that agree with this. PR driven quotes like this don’t move markets so what is there to be afraid of?
Anyway, here is what the NAR stated today according to Yahoo Finance:
The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million -- the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year. The Realtors' group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.Let us not forget the real data showing delinquencies rising at a faster rate, inventory of unsold homes at record levels, a mortgage market that is in distress, tighter lending standards, and fewer loan options.Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.
Comments (7)
And then there's the rest of the world:
"Further, the CEO of Chicago-based Robert Sheridan & Partners, who has been developing homes around the country since 1975, says he believes it will take another year or two before the mortgage market stabilizes. He also sees at least 2 million foreclosures over the next two years.
Ridiculing repeated Wall Street forecasts of a second-half turnaround in 2008, Mr. Sheridan argues: "They're dead wrong; the forecasters must be smoking something."
link: http://www.nysun.com/article/67746
Posted by them | December 10, 2007 12:37 PM
thx for link! this will be a longer process than most would like to believe. its just not fun to come to this realization. Its more fun to say it will be over next quarter.
as long as we have these upward blips in the markets due to news of fed cuts, govt sponsored programs / bailouts, cash infusions, consolidations, etc.. it might ease the pain as this messy process plays through
Posted by Noah | December 10, 2007 12:41 PM
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) - About Louis Kestenbaum - A teenage girl has filed a $50 million lawsuit against a New York billionaire, saying he sexually abused her when she was 14.
Louis Kestenbaum"s attorney says the allegations are false and motivated by money. Kestenbaum is also the CEO of Fortis properties and the ODA a goverment funded organisation in the williamsburg section of Brooklyn NY
The girl, now 17, claims Louis Kestenbaum invited her to his Florida mansion in 2005 to perform a massage for $300. The lawsuit, filed in federal court, claims he demanded she remove her clothes, then sexually assaulted her.
The girl, her father and stepmother are seeking more than $50 million.
JOEL KESTENBAUM a son of Louis Kestenbaum said " The family is in shock " but had no comments when asked.
Posted by Kim | February 15, 2008 2:05 PM
Any fool can see that this post about Louis Kestenbaum is a fake. It takes about a minute to see that the real Associated Press article about the charges isn’t about Kestenbaum at all, but someone named Jeffrey Epstein. Here is a link to the real article: http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/24/new-york-billionaire-accused-2nd-lawsuit-sex-minor. Who kind of animals would say these things? Everyone in the Jewish community knows it’s the Schlesingers, Victor and Gershy, and their computer guy Zilu Sofer, who are trying to slander Kestenbaum’s name. Both the Jewish community and non-Jews know that the Schlesingers are crooks and criminals, and can see how stupid they are to take an article about someone else and change the names around just for spite.
Posted by david | April 22, 2008 2:17 PM
Rabbi Aron Teitelbaum, the Rabbi of Kiryas Joel is being accused. WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP)-
A teenage girl has filed a $50 million lawsuit against a New York rabbi, saying he sexually abused her when she was 14.
Rabbi Aron Teitelbaum’s attorney says the allegations are false and motivated by money. Teitelbaum is the Rabbi of Kiryas Joel, a Chasidic community in upstate New York.
The girl, now 17, claims Aron Teitelbaum invited her to his Florida mansion in 2005 to perform a massage for $300. The lawsuit, filed in federal court, claims he demanded she remove her clothes, then sexually assaulted her.
The girl, her father and stepmother are seeking more than $50 million.
Rabbi Mendel Teitelbaum a son of Aron Teitelbaum said “The family is in shock ” but had no comments when asked.
Posted by yossi | April 23, 2008 2:40 PM
Louis Kestenbaum from williamsburg the ODA and fortis is an old diviant and crook, he was on trial just recently in ohio for similar diuretic acts, He is known as a vulgar person who behaves like an animal in the presence of good looking women, What about the story in Romania ? He was jailed briefly there when the old satmar rebbi died and he wasnt able to be at the levia.. or the story with girls in thailand asia? Bottom line Louis kestenbaum is bad news I would not let my kids and so would alot of people in williamsburg not allow their kids near him. he is just a doberman in disguise of a human
Posted by RACHEL | April 28, 2008 2:45 PM
I was wondering what mortgage data Larry is referring to? I don’t believe its part of his research but is a primary basis of rationalization for glowing market conditions.
Posted by Microsoft Training | April 7, 2009 5:47 AM