Manhattan Real Estate Update
A: I have to admit that I have been spending more time on urbandigs than on the streets of Manhattan real estate the past month or two, especially after that vacation in Jamaica. But, that doesn't prevent me from seeing how quiet the market is. There is just no real urge to jump in from buyers that I am sensing. But I am hesitant to report on it here because I am not out there as much lately. So, lets check in with what Doug Heddings over at TrueGotham is seeing as he is definitely more in touch with 'right now' than I am.
According to TrueGotham's "How's The Manhattan Real Estate Market?" article:
It's SUPER quiet right now! Buyers and sellers alike are indeed digging in their heels. Having said that, I'm seeing more motivated sellers on the market right now than those who "test" the market to see if they can get their price (inflated usually). The best article that I have read lately that most accurately portrays the current market is Between Buyers and Sellers, a Stalemate written by Christine Haughney for The New York Times (and I'm not just saying that because I was quoted in the piece).I'll be getting much more active with buyer clients come January and will start reporting more of what I am seeing on the front lines a few weeks after. Keep in mind that these reports are highly individual! Those brokers who put 10 hours a day into their business with buyers probably will report seeing a very healthy and active market. While those that deal mostly with sellers, will report its a bit on the quieter side. For me, I like to focus more on buyer psychology & confidence as a leading indicator of what may be ahead of us; and that is something I openly discuss with my buyer clients.
" Manhattan is apparently full of sellers who think foreign buyers, or bankers who might still get big bonuses, are ready to pay full price for their apartments. These sellers do have recent history on their side. For the first three quarters of this year, Manhattan apartments over all continued to sell at record prices.
Now, brokers say, they see a stalemate developing between buyers and sellers in Manhattan, especially for apartments in the $1 million to $5 million range. Sales in this range made up more than half of the total dollar volume in the market in the third quarter of this year, according to data tracked by Radar Logic.
Brokers say it is the buyers in this sector of the market who are now growing concerned about the impact of the weak national housing market and the effect that Wall Street losses might have on Manhattan apartment prices. So they’re lowering their bidding or stopping their searches altogether until they have more confidence in the market. "
Posted by Doug Heddings
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 11:44 AM
Boring indeed!!!! So boring in fact that I have been able to hand write holiday gifts and cards this year. And for the record, it hasn't gotten any busier today.
Posted by Noah
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 11:54 AM
holiday cards! crap, I forgot. Part of me is still in Jamaica. I want back!
Posted by Mike
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 12:24 PM
Goldman Sachs announced bonuses today to individuals. Lets see if its still boring tomorrow
Posted by Jerry
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 12:51 PM
Goldman's bonus is about 10 - 20% above last year's level.
Posted by Noah
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 01:19 PM
no shock there..they were short CDO's, CMO's weren't they? Prob still are.
Im still not too concerned over the bonuses this year as much as I am about HOW they will be spent! I dont see as much bonus action pouring into the market as in past few years because of expectations on the housing market
Posted by Doug Heddings
Wed Dec 12th, 2007 03:05 PM
Bonus shmonus! Everyone knew GS was having a great year. I want to know how much cash the others are paying out and since most of my friends are on The Street and anticipate large amounts of stock as opposed to buckets of cash, I remain concerned...and bored.
Posted by ollie
Thu Dec 13th, 2007 10:09 AM
no signs of this slowdown in activity is yet showing up on the inventory charts - if anything inventory has reduced over the last month or so...
Ollie
Posted by Brenda
Thu Dec 13th, 2007 10:23 AM
Ollie,
Tisn't the season to be listing. Tra la la la la... Particularly this year, unless one MUST sell, it would be foolish to list now, all things considered. I believe Doug is pointing out the lack of activity, across the board.
Posted by Noah
Thu Dec 13th, 2007 11:22 AM
Ollie - charts are in BETA for 4-6 months. try not to put too much weight into them until after we finish BETA.
Also, many sellers will take their listing off the market after Thanksgiving before x-max and new year. Its perfect time to freshen up a stale listing, for the usually more active bonus season.
Lets see where that inventory number goes to say in late February & March. Im sure it will approach 6,000. If not, then its hard to argue for sig price drops when inventory is so low; even if market is not active as Doug points out
Posted by Brenda
Mon Dec 17th, 2007 10:10 AM
Prices will continue to have upward pressure for a couple of more quarters due to closings in some very expensive new buildings. Sellers ought to be able to separate out the resale numbers from the new construction (where many of the apartments sold months ago), but they have a difficult time doing so, particularly now when buyers and sellers have been so focused on the "price per square foot" figures. If some of the macro conditions (unemployment, lack of credit, inflation limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates further, lack of school spots) force some sellers into movement, we may see some increase in activity. Otherwise it may continue to be slow and flat for a while.