Manhattan Inventory Declining?
A: Well, I'll feel much better talking about this in another 4-6 months when we have a nice baseline of data collected from the Streeteasy tool. But hey, that's way too far out and I hate waiting (like Enigo Montoya who couldn't wait for the man in black to climb the cliffs of insanity!). Anyway, the chart shows a fairly noticeable decline in total active inventory for the island of Manhattan so why not discuss this a bit.
Before sellers get all giddy that inventory is down 5-7% or so in the past three weeks, please know that these systems are in BETA, we are constantly tweaking collection methods and fixing bugs to ensure better accuracy, and that we only collected about 2 1/2 months of data so far! Also, its DECEMBER!
The seasonal aspect of Manhattan real estate kicks in during the tail end of November and most of December as those sellers who do not have to sell REMOVE THEIR LISTING from the open market to freshen it up for a normally more active selling season in the first few months of the year. I think this is the biggest reason for the decline in total active inventory from about 5,300 total units to about 4,950 units or so it is showing now. The market is generally slow in the month of December and most sellers try to enjoy the holiday and their shopping rather than dealing with prospective buyers & brokers. So, we must take this well known trend in mind!
With that said, I expect inventory to rise as we get closer to February & March; right in the middle of the bonus season. Sellers normally re-list their properties, and new sellers usually try to time their marketing with the bonus season to take advantage of the activity so lets see what happens this time around with the data tools & charts clearly displayed!
Any active buyers out there care to back up the decline in inventory OR question it? Would love to know what you guys see.
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Comments (8)
Noah,
It seems as though you should be able to parse the data in respect to:
* Declines attributable to a specific neighborhood or an even trend throughout manhattan
* Variation in the data to games by new developments paring down active listings
* Catagory of apartments showing the delcine (i.e. 1BR's or condos vs co-op.
Wish the data was more transparent. I would love to break it down. May answer a lot of questions with respect to these variations.
Posted by robocop | December 18, 2007 1:45 PM
robocop - excellent ideas. I would LOVE to see this as well. Only issue is that Streeteasy controls this tool and the data. So, I say we let this thing gather data for another 4-5 months, and then Ill talk to Streeteasy about ideas like this, as I know they have tons of data collected that is waiting to be put to good use.
Thanks!! And keep these ideas coming robocop!
Posted by Noah | December 18, 2007 1:49 PM
We are looking to buy a one bedroom in midtown east or upper east side, and it seems to us that there aren't as many properties now, than there was in September and October
Also, there are a bunch of the same old properties that only do minor price cuts. Whats the point of cutting a 600k apartment by 10,000 anyway?
Posted by Lauren H. | December 18, 2007 2:54 PM
Noah - did you actually hear of properties being pulled during the fall's doom/gloom in anticipation of relisting during bonus season? This would make sense.
The other question is how many properties went into contract in October/November. This is another way to answer the same question and would seem to me to really reflect the temperature of the market. We know September was abysmal.
Posted by anon | December 18, 2007 4:34 PM
anon - 2 of my listings were taken off in mid Nov, and late Nov. for this very reason, to freshen up.
As for sales vol for Oct/Nov, not sure, I wish I had solid signed contracts data for past year to see overall trend, but Im sure it is seasonally lower.
Posted by Noah | December 18, 2007 5:53 PM
It seems like people are pulling their listings going into the holidays based on what's going on with the properties in my streeteasy search (Tribeca/Soho). Only one of the 12 properties on my saved sales list has sold in the last three months and two have been delisted. Interesting to see that inventory today is almost back up to early December levels.
Posted by BG | December 19, 2007 9:20 AM
Keeping a close eye on the listings landing in my email-box, I see a significant increase in rentals (medium to high end), and decrease in apartments for sale.
I think sellers taking their properties off the market, trying to rent it for 12 months to see how the market has corrected in 12 months.
What do you think?!!
Hugo van Dijk
Manhattan Apartments Inc.
Posted by Anonymous | December 22, 2007 1:50 PM
What I think would be equally instructive would be historical data (e.g., how does Q1'08 inventory compare to Q1'07 inventory). Since levels change quarter to quarter ordinarily, it is very hard to see if a new trend has started by just looked at the current year.
Posted by orionnyc | February 15, 2008 8:38 AM