New Listings Inventory Check
A: I wanted to follow up on the # of NEW LISTINGS that have hit the Manhattan real estate market by month since the start of the year. I posted on this trend back on July 6th, where I expected the month of July to ultimately show a significant decline from the month of June. While there was a decline, it wasn't as significant as I originally thought it may be. It's important to know that I do the best I can with the data that is available to me. In this case, New Listings are the most error-free dataset I can trend out. Hopefully in near future I can change this so you guys have access to data and charts that I feel would be incredibly useful for buyers/sellers.
Neighborhoods included: Beekman, Carnegie Hill, Central Park South, Chelsea, Clinton, E. Village, Fin District, Flatiron District, Gramercy, G Village, Little Italy/Chinatown, LES, Midtown, Murray Hill, SoHo, Sutton Area, Tribeca, UES, UWS, W. Village
Lets get right to it. Here is a chart showing you the # of NEW LISTINGS to hit the Manhattan marketplace each month in 2007; I included September so obviously discount that category. However, today alone I see 74 NEW LISTINGS! This month may prove to be significant towards affecting inventory trends down the road here in New York City.
Conclusions - Hard to say. To me, inventory out there still seems tight and prices holding; properly priced apartments are selling relatively quickly while those that are pricing high and testing are experiencing the normal lengthier time on market. If September proves to have over 1,000 new listings hitting the market, that would make two months in a row of 1,000+ new listings hitting the market here in Manhattan. There are a few new development listings that seem to be contributing to some of the most recent inventory (about 80 or so updated last in past month). These include listings for:
1. 255 E 74th
2. Atelier - 627 W 42nd
3. William Beaver House - 15-23 William St
4. The Brompton - 205 E 85th
How many are truly available at this very moment OR set to be released in near future I don't know. To get this info simply contact the sales office for an updated inventory list and ask how many percent sold the building is.
Looking forward, I hope to make this data easier for you guys to chart out and interpret so you have a better take on the Manhattan marketplace. Please bear with me while I work on urbandigs phase 2; del boca vista.
Posted by guest
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 01:40 PM
Not to make more work for you, but do you know what has happened to inventory in Brooklyn, specifically the busier regions closest to Manhattan (BH, Cobble Hill, Carroll Gdns, Clinton Hill, FG, Downtown, Wburg, Boerum Hill, Park Slope, Dumbo)?
Posted by Pete
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 02:10 PM
The data doesn't mean much to me without comparing it to previous years, esp. 05 and 06, when things were booming along. I'm surprised that Aug. showed more new listings than any month in the winter or spring.
Posted by Noah
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 02:23 PM
Pete - Ill try to find time to get data from those years as well, but I wont have time to do spot checks for 24 months to ensure that data is accurate.
I did with these and found very minimal errors. In future, I hope to get better systems to tack this data so we have running tabs on these trends. I would like to see back 3-4 years as well. Especially TOTAL active inventory
Posted by Ken
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 06:36 PM
Wouldn't the number of completed sales be a better indicator for inventory than new listings?
Posted by Noah
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 07:11 PM
Ken - NO! # of completed sales would be a better indicator of sales volume and activity here in Manhattan to gauge level of buyer interest.
Total ACTIVE INVENTORY trends would be a better indicator for inventory BUT unfortunately the data source I have access to cannot accurately gauge it. I tried, but when I checked there were too many listings not updated and no longer available that it skewed results. That among other things that made the listing out of date; the data was only as good as the agent that maintains it.
Im working on all of this stuff to bring you guys better gauges of the NYC market. Please be patient. Its a TON of work and I am putting my own business on hold for a while until I can get this done. For now, you'll have to deal with what I can bring to you that is not that skewed from the data source I have acess to
Posted by Ken
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 09:42 PM
How about then, as an indicator for inventory trend, # of New Listings - # of Completed Sales? If it's negative then the inventory is shrinking, if it's positive then the inventory is growing.
Posted by Noah
Tue Sep 11th, 2007 10:50 PM
Still wont work. We need to see TOTAL ACTIVES on market that includes those listings BOM from whatever reasons; board rejection, listing taken off market to be put back on, etc.
We need to see ALL:
1. ACTIVES + BACK ON MARKET
2. # NEW LISTINGS
3. # SIGNED CONRACTS
4. # CLOSED SALES
all separate. But gathering this data is proving very difficult because there is no standard MLS listing system in Manhattan and quite simply, the data itself is not regulated and is only as good as the agent that enters it. Its a shame and makes this market not transparent.
Posted by John
Fri Sep 14th, 2007 06:48 PM
I think the inventory is skewed to properties higher than $1MM. That is, the inventory is higher for this price point than say, $300-700K. I'm personally finding slimer pickin's for studios. Do you have the data to support this?
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Sat Jun 14th, 2008 04:03 AM
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