Inventory Trend Check - It's Rising
A: After seeing what I saw on Long Island yesterday, I was curious to see the inventory trends of Manhattan real estate on a weekly basis for the past 4-5 weeks or so. I wanted to see if there was a trend. I added Beekman (not sure why I left out Beekman in previous reports) to this inventory check. I also excluded NEW LEADS and only counted the number of NEW LISTINGS that came to market for the specified time period; the first time I did this and something I should have been doing in the past. It's the best data I have access to, so take it for what its worth. Conclusions? New listings inventory trend is rising
Neighborhoods included: Beekman, Carnegie Hill, Central Park South, Chelsea, Clinton, E. Village, Fin District, Flatiron District, Gramercy, G Village, Little Italy/Chinatown, LES, Midtown, Murray Hill, SoHo, Sutton Area, Tribeca, UES, UWS, W. Village
I checked the data twice to be sure it was correct before entering it into the chart software. While it may not seem like inventory is rising to all you frustrated buyers out there, according to the central brokerage system that I use since Corcoran bought out Citi-Habitats, the inventory trend line is clearly on the upside.
For the week of May 6th - May 13th (yes I know its 8 days, but this is how I did it and at least all sets are consistent), the search hit the MAX # of 300 results so I really don't know how many more new listings there may have been. I also subtracted NEW LEADS, since that is all they are, leads and not listings on the market yet, to get a more accurate view of how many new listings actually hit the New York City real estate market during the specified date ranges.
Draw your own conclusions but what I see is rising inventory hitting the NYC real estate marketplace since April 13th. While prices are still high and demand is still strong, the effect of this rising inventory is yet to be seen. Will the demand absorb the rising supply? Will Jonathan Miller show this same trend in future data reports? I'll certainly be keeping tabs on it. The hope is to give you the inside take on what is really happening in Manhattan real estate so that you can best invest in it.
PS - Sorry, no live chat today as I have to head to LI for a family visit to the oncologist.
Posted by Seth Winkleman
Mon May 21st, 2007 09:08 AM
As a Realtor in Connecticut, we see the trends in New York affect us. When people can't afford a home in the city they seem to buy in Fairfield County. That in turn affects the rest of the state pushing those out of one county into another. One question, are the properties you mentioned residential or multi-unit?
Posted by Noah
Mon May 21st, 2007 09:11 AM
Seth - Interesting. But if its a question of affordability, or lack thereof, than rising inventory in Manhattan entering the normally slow summer season, should equate to better deals for NYC buyers; and thus less interest in Fairfield County (which I know nothing about).
This data is residential apartment sales and does not include Building/Townhouse sales. Although individual units of a townhouse are included in the apartment sales data. Just the buildings or multi-use townhouses as a whole that are not included.
Posted by Jonathan J. Miller
Mon May 21st, 2007 10:06 AM
Inventory levels usually rise during this time of year as new properties are added for exposure to the spring market. We need to be concerned about whether rising inventory will be higher than seasonal expectations. My guess is that it will be.
Sorry about the visit to the oncologist. I wish your family well. My wife successfully battled breast cancer 2 years ago with both of us taking many trips to the oncologist.
Posted by soon to be buyer
Mon May 21st, 2007 10:38 AM
Did you notice the condo conversion at 212 East 47th? They are converting the whole rental building into a condo. I already saw several dozens of their listings, and more will come out as their renovation continues. The sales person told me that they sold 20 units in one week or so.
Posted by Noah
Mon May 21st, 2007 03:53 PM
Thanks JM!! Appreciate the thoughts.
Soon - nope havent noticed that yet. Been crazy busy with sales clients and buyer clients, but Ill check it out.